John McCain doesn't have a lot of things going for him. He's way behind in fundraising. He's out of step with the country on Iraq. He admittedly knows nothing about the economy. And he'll be up against a Democratic candidate (no matter which we choose) who will have more star power and infrastructure behind them than the "moderate" Republican can muster.
But is McCain's age a liability?
John McCain was born on August 29th, 1936. By the time the general election kicks into full swing, he will be 72. His opponents are considerably younger. Hillary Clinton will be 61 in October. Barack Obama will be 47.
It is hard to say whether a candidate's age has played a factor in the general election. Correlation, of course, does not equal causation. Taking a look at the statistics going back to 1952, a pattern does emerge:
| Democratic Candidate (Age at the time) | Republican Candidate (Age at the time) | Winner (years older or younger than opponent) |
| John Kerry (61) | George W. Bush (58) | George W. Bush (-3) |
| Al Gore (52) | George W. Bush (54) | George W. Bush (+2) |
| Bill Clinton (50) | Bob Dole (73) | Bill Clinton (-23) |
| Bill Clinton (46) | George H.W. Bush (68) | Bill Clinton (-22) |
| Michael Dukakis (55) | George H.W. Bush (64) | George H.W. Bush (+9) |
| Walter Mondale (56) | Ronald Reagan (73) | Ronald Reagan (+17) |
| Jimmy Carter (56) | Ronald Reagan (69) | Ronald Reagan (+13) |
| Jimmy Carter (52) | Gerald Ford (63) | Jimmy Carter (-11) |
| George McGovern (50) | Richard Nixon (59) | Richard Nixon (+9) |
| Hubert Humphrey (57) | Richard Nixon (55) | Richard Nixon (-2) |
| Lyndon Johnson (56) | Barry Goldwater (55) | Lyndon Johnson (+1) |
| John F. Kennedy (43) | Richard Nixon (47) | John F. Kennedy (-4) |
| Adlai Stevenson (56) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (66) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (+10) |
| Adlai Stevenson (52) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (62) | Dwight D. Eisenhower (+10) |
Republican candidates who win are almost as a rule older then their opponents. Democrats who win are younger than theirs. In a match-up against Obama or Clinton, McCain would then be playing into this pattern. If he was younger than his Democratic rivals, I'd be tempted to say he was at a disadvantage, given the history. But he's not, so it's hard to say given this data whether age will be a factor.
Nevertheless, older candidates typically poll lower among the general electorate:
A 2007 Pew poll, which tested the desirability of 23 personal characteristics for presidential candidates, found 48 percent of its respondents saying that they would be less likely to vote for candidates in their 70's. This was about the same percentage who said they were disinclined to vote for a presidential candidate who was a Muslim or a former drug user. Only atheists and candidates who had never held elective office engendered more negative responses.
Still, statistically speaking, it's hard to say if McCain's age will hurt him in the general election. The numbers as they stand seem inconclusive.
Have you seen any polls or historical statistics that say something different?
|
|
|
Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
