I take solace in the fact that right now McCain is up 6 against either Obama or Clinton despite the fact that he has essentially been spared for weeks on end. As our two candidates continue to campaignon, McCain is essentially getting a free pass from both the Dems and the media now. IA is a swing state having switched from Blue to Red in '04.

I think that the Nader vote is a protest vote against both HRC and BHO in March. After the 2000 fiasco, no one wants the Republican to win thsi way again.

you mean Ohio -- not Iowa -- correct ??

and i don't care if someone happens to use drastic action. how many more American soldiers and Iraqis have do die for Ralph Nader's ego?

I don't put much stock in these early polls. Despite what they say I don't believe voters are going to put McBush in the White House. After the conventions he'll start to fade. The politics of fear are passing.

It boggles my mind that 6% would vote for Nader after everything that has happened in the past 8 years. Geez, like Obama isn't left enough with his anti-imperialist, pro-Palestinian preacher screaming God Damn America. What does it take for these people? ;-)

I think that polls this far out are meaningless, although it would be good for this to get wrapped up  soon.

And with Nancy Pelosi's recent comments (see below), things my wrap up sooner rather than later.

Pelosi's Delegate Stance Boosts Obama

By DAVID ESPO - http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jbmae GHPflyoZifK0IsXS9tCsWvwD8VE3FU00

WASHINGTON (AP) -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says it would be damaging to the Democratic party for its leaders to buck the will of national convention delegates picked in primaries and caucuses, a declaration that gives a boost to Sen. Barack Obama.

"If the votes of the superdelegates overturn what's happened in the elections, it would be harmful to the Democratic party," Pelosi said in an interview taped Friday for broadcast Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

The California Democrat did not mention either Obama or his rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, by name. But her remarks seemed to suggest she was prepared to cast her ballot at the convention in favor of the candidate who emerges from the primary season with the most pledged delegates.

Obama leads Clinton by 142 pledged delegates -- those delegates picked in nomination contests to date, in The Associated Press' count.

Barring an unlikely string of landslide victories by the former first lady in the remaining states, he will end the primary season with a delegate lead, but short of the 2025 needed to win the nomination.

That gives the balance of power to the so-called superdelegates, prominent Democrats who are automatically entitled to attend the convention because of their status as members of Congress or other leaders. Clinton leads Obama for their support in the AP count, 249-213.

Pelosi's comments could influence other House Democrats who are neutral in the presidential race and will attend the convention as superdelegates.

In her interview, Pelosi also said that even if one candidate winds up with a larger share of the popular vote than the delegate leader, the candidate who has more delegates should prevail.

"It's a delegate race," she said. "The way the system works is that the delegates choose the nominee."

in polls than on election day.

Come on--Nader getting 15 percent of independents? That is a total joke. Never going to happen.

I'd be more worried if it was SUSA, Gallup, Rasmussen, or mostly anybody (with the exception of ARG) besides Zogby.

That's the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Does anyone want to bet that Nader will get a bigger share of the vote than he did in 2000? Anyone?

Concern trolling with Rasmussen and Zogby polls? Come on, you can do better!

Zogby should be polling with McKinney in a McCain, Clinton, McKinney, Nader matchup.  Maybe also Ron Paul.  If Clinton is the nominee, McKinney is likely to take far more Dem votes than Nader.  I suspect that most Dems, even those disenchanted, will be extra Nader-shy this time around.

Wake up Ralph.  

If Nader breaks 5 % in Berkeley or Madison I'll go swimming in Lake Mendota (that is in Wisconsin)in January 2009.  If he breaks half a percent nationwide, I'll marry Ann Coulter.  Last time he was somewhere between a quarter of a percent and a half a percent.  Most likely it will be under that in 2008.

This really is the silly season.

What about without Nader. No way Ralph Nader gets more than 0.5% he got last time. Without him what does the race look like?

This should be a SHOE-IN for a democratic president

The worst president in history.
Economy tanked.
Geriatric Republican opponent

So what do we do?  Instead of electing a strong candidate, we decide it's time to experiment and rectify social injustices with an unknown neophyte, who was friends with a crooked landlord caught laundering money in the middle east, and whose spiritual advisor admired Farrakhan, and hates America, and who hails from a district that seems out of sync with the rest of the country.  (Chicago spiritual advisors don't seem to have heard that black people have made enormous advances since Clinton first took office)

WE ARE SO SMART.

Even if Hillary wins the primary, Daily Kos has put young bloggers in total hate mode for HRC. And Senator "Unifier" has spoken about nothing except RACISM after claiming that his campaign would transcend race, - that blacks and young people  would go all out to see that she is defeated.

And if he wins the primary, a lot of HRC supporters will be embittered by their shoddy treatment in the blogs, they will have a hard time putting his name on any ballot ever again.

Yes, this should be a shoe-in.  Our children should be happy at the thought of healthcare reform, economic reform and environmental reform.

What we can in fact look forward to is 4 more years of bad times.
Because Obama cannot win a national election.
No Way!
and he will see to it that Hillary Clinton's campaign is hobbled.

The chickens.... Coming home.... to ROOST!!!!  Damn Rev Wright is hilarious.  On the topic of these polls.  Once again damn I wish John Edwards was still in the race, he beats McCain in a general election walking away. John Edwards would carry North and South Carolina in a General Election match up with McCain.  John Edwards would Carry Ohio and IOWA going away in a General Election Match up against McCain.  Guys this sucks.  Why are parts of our country so bigoted.  2 trillion dollar war, Housing market in the toilet, the dollar in the dumps against the Euro, 4,000 dead U.S troops, FUCK this sucks.   What is wrong with Kansas, Ohio, Florida, Virgina, Missouri?  Guys this sucks...

Personally, I take solace in the fact that this poll is crap.

spend two weeks tearing each other to shreds

The only thing to take solace in is that McCain isn't breaking out above 50 percent.

And that it's March, not November. And that it's Zogby. And that Nader isn't getting six fucking percent no matter what.

You know better than this, Jerome! Don't say stupid things that get people biting their nails needlessly. It's not good for morale.

Perhaps someone could update the delegate counter.

Here's what Chuck Todd has as of tonight, including the new Iowa delegates

Pledged Count: Obama leads 1,407-1,252
Superdelegates: Clinton leads 253-217
OVERALL TOTAL: Obama leads 1,624-1,505

Really, does anyone think McCain can be beat?

McCain is seen as more competent than Bush, and
right now a lot of voters don't have faith in either Clinton or Obama.

Right now, I don't the Democratic paryy is structured to win the Presidency; the DNC in nearly broke, and we have a tendency to gravitate
to weak or flawed candidates.  Edwards just didn't get any traction.

So the main thing now is to focus on Congress.

Oh noooo! We're dooooooomed! Doooooooomed I tell you! ... Lol.

Let's all thank Hillary for this.

Wonder how that could have happened?  

Hmmm....  Obama taken off message, now has to fend off attack dogs coming from his own party no less...(nice!!).

Clinton too busy praising McCain's qualifications to be commander in chief?

Maybe McCain will choose Hillary as his VP.  

He'll owe her "big-time" if he beats Obama in November.

WHAT was Ohio thinking?  They're just encouraging this foolishness to continue.

I think as we get closer to a nominee, McCain will start going down, as the fog and dust will settle, and people will see the choice. that is if we decide to offer one this year. Its good he's goin to Europe, so no one here can see him for a while. The less time he gets in the headlines, the better, as people will forget about him, and think of the GOP candidate for November as "like Bush".

In 2000, Nader received 2,883,105 votes, for 2.74 percent of the popular vote.

In 2004, Nader received 463,653 votes, for 0.38% of the popular vote.

He won't draw that much in 2008.

McCain may be up in polls now, but it means nothing. ... unless Hillary destroys any chance of party unity heading into Denver.

'nuff said.

I am betting that Nader gets closer to 0.5%, so add 5.5% to Obama or Clinton.  Which, interestingly enough, ties Obama/Clinton and McCain.

As I have said if Obama is the nominee I will vote for Nader and urge other Clinton supporters to do the same. Most of the ones I know flat out say they will either not vote or vote for McCain. At least with Nader its a progressive vote

Adding to the above I will still vote a straight Democratic ticket for the other races

The two Dems still in the race, the head to head is meaningless.

If I'm a Hillary supporter, I tell the pollster I vote for McCain over Obama to make my candidate look more "electable".

If I'm an Obama supporter, I tell the pollster I vote for McCain over Hillary to make my candidate look more "electable".

Wait for the poll after the primary is decided. The only candidate who is "unelectable" is McCain.

Obama will bury McCain in November.  Democratic turnout will be massive, and we'll win a ton of downticket races in the bargain.

I have spoken.

I'll Kiss Zogby's ass if Nader gets 6%.  As for the crossover numbers, those will tighten up on both.  There is no way Obama and McCain don't do better among their own parties once this all gets going and the Bush-McCain hug commercials come out nonstop by the 527's.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-k-wil son/clinton-by-far-worst-abus_b_84102.ht ml

Hillary's earmarks -  Ouch !

More numbers support McCain, according to Rasmussen.

McCain beats both slightly.  It's McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42%  

Rasmussen has the negative and unfavorable assessments at McCain 41%, Obama 49% and Clinton at 51%.  Obama's negative ratings are rising, while Clinton is steady.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/daily_presidential_tra cking_poll

Run away!  The sky is falling! The sky is falling!  The best thing to do now is call off the election and just let McCain rule.

This kind of commentary will look really foolish after Obama wins in a landslide and Nader gets less than 1/4 of 1% in November.  

All predicted or not predicted by Zogby two weeks prior, depending on what mood he is in.

talking up McSame, he wouldn't be doing too well.

Just for future reference Armstrong, if you hear about something that happened at CAP tonight...it was me.

I honestly believe that, despite what polls say about Clinton/Obama voters crossing over to McCain if their preferred candidate didn't win, most would eventually still come behind the Democrat.  A lot of emotions are riding high right now, but as we're starting to see even with McCain (who's hated by the right), even they are starting to trickle into supporting him.  The same will happen once we have a nominee, assuming their nomination looks legitimate.

If it doesn't... well, we could run into problems, no matter who the nominee is.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/15/ 203242/685/352/477632

Well, we probably aren't going to see these on mainstream TV, but check out these two videos.  One by a Pastor who herself is a member at Obama's church, and the other by the new Pastor there.

Real scary people, huh?  

So why all the caterwauling?

Both Clinton and Obama have been ahead of McCain in recent polls (and I think are either matched or ahead of McCain in some current polls). The Pollster average for 3/13 has both Obama and Clinton slightly ahead of McCain. This despite the fact that partisans of Clinton and Obama have been vigorously bloodying their respective primary opponents. Meanwhile, McCain is getting a free ride which won't last.

Get a grip.

afraid of

Looks like the Texas caucus may be headed for court!

"Clinton Tries to Delay County Conventions"

March 15th, 2008 at 5:58 pm

The Associated Press is reporting that the Clinton campaign has asked the Texas Democratic Party to postpone the county conventions scheduled for Saturday, March 29. The conventions are the next stage in Texas' convoluted caucus process.

In a letter to the party late Friday, the Clinton campaign stated it had received more than 2,000 complaints of violations during the caucus process, in which a million Texans came out. The campaign wants the eligibility of the caucus-goers double checked before the process continues."

I will have to admit that the Texas caucus was a joke! I was there, and it was full of fraud! Anyone could have attended including the Bush family if they had wanted!

http://www.texasobserver.org/blo...ty-co nventions/

Considering Zogby's track record and his obvious conflict of interest, he has probably added 4 to Sen. Obama's tally and subtracted 4 from Sen. Clinton's tally. So Sen obama must be doing really badly.

Can you say, "Scorched Earth strategy?"  Thanks, Mark Penn!!!  I guess that consulting firm you work for, that one that also runs McCain's campaign, must be giving you a nice bonus!!  Conflict of interest?   Naaaahhh.....

That Nader gets under 1% of the vote in November.  Any takers?

The open question is if he'll get as many votes as Obama will have donators.

Just imagine all the ads on Jeremiah Wright the 527s will air during the general election.

Hmm.  Was it ABC?  It was someone that had Obama over McCain by 8% just 2 days ago.  Don't think the polls are gonna mean a whole hell of alot yet.  And Zogby is a bit of a joke anyway