More of that?

Friggen '90's:




Remind me how Gore lost again... nevermind, I'm just reading the final Shrum chapters, on his running media & strategy for Gore in '00 and Kerry in '04.


You know what else I'm reading, Millennial Makeover. This is a phenomenal book. The 2008 book of the year in politics, as far as I'm concerned. I'm about halfway through, and will write more. Suffice to say that if you love seeing how political history is cyclically seen to influence our contemporary political transformation, you will also enjoy the insight.



Display:


Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Apparently not, unfortunately.


by ejintx on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:36:49 PM EST

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Of course we don't learn.
Just try telling an rekligous group that you can't legislate morality.
Sorry to get off topic, but I couldn't resist and since not learning from history was sort of a topic here...
by spirowasright on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 05:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Take a look at the negatives for Clinton/Obama.

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=895#co mments


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:37:10 PM EST

Re: More of that? (2.00 / 1)

Supposedly Bob Shrum said that Obama should ignore the Jeremiah Wright thing and it will go away... just like he advised Kerry to ignore the swfitboat thing.  Will this guy ever learn?  Can we please keep him away from any and all Democratic campaigns?  His ignorance may be infectious!!!  The Hillary Clinton campaign is only beginning to recover from the Shrum "flu" that infected the earlier part of the primary season...

Assign him to the Nader campaign... he can't do any harm there!


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:37:11 PM EST

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

No way, do you have a link for that, probably on TV, I could certainly see that being true.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

TV -- no link available... It's possible he may have written something about it somewhere...


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:34:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

I agree Hillary campaign had that kind of "ignore" flu in the beginning. Especially before Iowa. Penn let Axelrod paint Hillary as he wanted and didnt retaliate.


by Sandeep on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:14:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

I must admit to having those thoughts. I don't think we have the same Gore that blew '00. Anyway, Clinton surely has made just as many primary mistakes as Gore did in the GE. Doesn't matter who it is at this point, even Obama, we've got our back to the wall and though its nearly 9 months away, we are the underdog.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:42:13 PM EST

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

I really think we're stuck with two weak candidates, and we'll blow a change election.  The biq question is, does McCain have coattails?


by mikelow1885 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:47:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the best case (none / 0)

considering Bush was beating Gore in polls since before Lewinsky http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1997/09/1 2/poll/ tho he was owning Kemp and Quayle. Today's Gore is energized, many of the people who voted for nader like him now.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second President of the United States
by DiamondJay on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:54:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the best case (none / 0)

Keep in mind, though, that very few people voted for Nader...he couldn't even get 5% of the vote to qualify the Greens as a real party (his percentage in 2000 was 2.75).

At any rate, the change in Gore is irrelevant as far as the POTUS race goes...the reason Gore is so different now is because he has given up (or liberated himself from) running for elective office. That's why he can speak the truth...if he were a candidate, he wouldn't be saying those things.


by Alice in Florida on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:59:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nader (none / 0)

Zogby has Nader at 5%.  He might be a factor, especially if he could get on the ballot in most of the states.


by mikelow1885 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 07:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nader (none / 0)

I will vote for Nader if Hillary wins this nomination with this kitchen sink strategy.  Shame on her.  


by Toddwell on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 07:36:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gore had to waste resourcees (2.00 / 1)

on states where Nader was campaigning hard: WA, OR, MN, WI, to name just a few.

If Nader hadn't focused on the must-win states for Gore, he would have had more time and money to spend in other states.

Oh yeah, and if the pre-election polling in NH had not shown Bush comfortably ahead, more NH residents might have realized they lived in a swing state and wouldn't have thrown their votes to Nader.

NH's 4 EVs would have put Gore over the top without Florida.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:43:13 PM EST

Re: Gore had to waste resourcees (none / 0)

Nader won NH, depriving Gore of the presidency.

Clinton is now losing NH (but Obama is leading McCain there0, in part over her actions on FL/MI.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 01:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This Wright thing might help Obama (none / 0)

Less people will think he's a Muslim.


by Timetheos on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:08:06 PM EST

Re: This Wright thing might help Obama (2.00 / 1)

Wright didn't say whites were evil, he said they have power in this country.  Do you disagree that the power structure is dominated by rich white people/


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:29:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Wright thing might help Obama (none / 0)

He pretty much said white people are racist by nature...the standard black militant line. Calling the majority of people racist is really bad politics...the big problem is that it undercuts the whole premise of Obama's campaign, that we are past being defined by race.


by Alice in Florida on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 05:13:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (2.00 / 2)

Gore lost because times were good, people were comfortable, and they didn't feel like it much mattered who was President.  

Now we're in a spot where people remember good times under a Democrat AND they're currently experiencing bad times under a Republican.  That's a great place to be.

Amazingly, the current Democratic frontrunner is a guy who wants to repudiate that legacy and treat the whole Bush/Clinton era as something we want to turn the page from.  The economy will still be a Democratic advantage, but it's amazing anyone would voluntarily avoid reminding people how well they were doing with a Democrat in charge.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:21:43 PM EST

Re: More of that? (2.00 / 1)

The legacy of the 90's is huge numbers of congressional and senate seats lost to radical republicans... why would anyone want to bring that back again?


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:36:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

The 1994 realignment was inevitable.  You can't have the same realignment a second time.

The idea that Obama can promise us we won't lose seats in Congress is just silly.  Even FDR got spanked in 1938.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (2.00 / 1)

It was not inevitable... The Clintons' bumbling the first couple years in the white house was the direct cause...

With a 50 state strategy in place, we could see a dramatic expansion of democrats in congress for several cycles.

But, since the Clintons abhor the 50 state strategy, preferring to concentrate on "big states", how do you expect guys like Tester and Trauner to get elected in "states that don't matter"...  If you let the party die in the "states that don't matter", it's hard to win congressional and senatorial seats for the congressional majority you need.

You need the Jon Testers and the Gary Trauners to have a congressional majority.  Ignore MT and OK at your peril!


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

no, the post-1990 census redistricting (2.00 / 1)

was also a very big cause of the 1994 realignment, as was the rise of right-wing talk radio.

The redistricting after the 1990 census created a lot more Democratic super-majority districts and a lot more districts that tilted slightly Republican.

Because the economy was so bad in 1992, and Poppy Bush was so unpopular in 1992, we didn't pay the price for that redistricting until 1994.

My own congressman, Neal Smith, was first elected in 1958. After 1990 his district was redrawn and he lost a lot of the counties he'd been bringing pork to for decades. He also suddenly represented a lot of counties in rural, conservative, southwest Iowa where he had no connection to voters.

He lost in the 1994 landslide, but if either the county containing Ames or the county containing Newton had remained in his district, he'd probably still be serving in the House.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:01:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: no, the post-1990 census redistricting (none / 0)

These are very good points, DMD.  Do you think you'll have anything to write regarding the county conventions today, by the way?


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:03:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm not sure how much info I will have (none / 0)

I'm encouraging people to post stories at Bleeding Heartland, and if I have anything interesting to write, I am going to cross-post it to the Dem Convention Watch blog.

But it may be hard to get enough solid information for a post today.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:23:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm not sure how much info I will have (none / 0)

I checked over there earlier.  I saw the results from Marshall County, what looked like a HUGE shift of the Edwards delegates to Obama.

If that repeats itself, it could sure impact the national narrative.  I had thought, if anything, people would be sort of keeping their powder dry right now.

I hope people post some firsthand accounts as I find the process very interesting.

By the way, when I spoke to my lawyer friend in Des Moines on Friday, I suggested to him that Iowa should send some election officials to Florida to show them how to conduct a proper election.  You know, like the way we nurture democracy in developing Third World nations.  He liked the idea.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:28:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards delegates hung in there (none / 0)

in the People's Republic of Johnson County (Iowa City), not losing any to Obama or Clinton.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 10:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (2.00 / 2)

Clinton's rookie mistakes may well have been the reason the realignment happened exactly when it did, but it was going to happen at some point.  We simply weren't going to hold all those Democratic seats in the South.  Just as the Republicans, after their move to the hard right with Terri Schiavo and the like, weren't going to hold all those seats in New England that we're now picking up.

I support the 50-state strategy and I will be heartbroken if Hillary wins the election and replaces Dean with someone who will undo all that's been accomplished in the red states.  But I don't have the confidence of some Obama supporters that things would actually happen that way.

I don't believe the 50-state strategy has a ton of relevance to the presidential election.  I absolutely appreciate the hard work Obama has done in reaching out to folks in places like rural Nevada, because Democrats need to be visible in those places.  But I have no illusions that if Obama wins the nomination, he'll spend any time at all campaigning in the dark red states.  There's only so many days on the calendar and the Presidential nominee can't have sole responsibility for spreading the Democratic good news.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:02:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (2.00 / 1)

It doesn't matter that Obama or whomever campaigns in NV (in which, BTW, he leads), the visibility there can help us win more congressional and senate seats.

The Clintons and Dean hate each other, and the former have been trying to get one their "big state" insiders such as Harold Ford (Dear Lord! The man just endorsed Republican Chris Shays) or Ickes in the top spot.  McAuliffe (the man who lost us 2002 and 2004) even tried a coup attempt after we WON so many congressional seats in 2006.  They have very little interest in growing the party.  In the 90's, they let state parties go bankrupt...  I don't fully understand the mentality.  I think they prefer being president with a hostile congress.  That way, little is expected of them, and they can be easy heroes with a veto pen.  I don't know.  Maybe someone can enlighten me on why they want a weak Democratic party.

As far as the Clintons are concerned, the party begins and ends with the presidency, congress be damned!  I hear the same from Clinton supporters.  The fact is, you need both to be successful.  I do  not get the sense that they feel congress is important.


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:57:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

It wasnt just seats in the South.  We lost some very Democratic districts in 1994 in places like California, Oregon, Washington, Virginia, and all over the Northeast and Midwest.  


by Toddwell on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 06:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

1994 wasn't inevitable?
You wanna make a bet?
It would have happendd to Carter, Mondale or Dukakis if any one of them had been in the White House.
The Dems had simply been in power at the non-Presidental levels for too long and it didn't catch up with them before 1994.

by spirowasright on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 05:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

The realignment was not inevitable.  Democrats lost a lot of very Democratic seats that they never should have lost in 1994.  


by Toddwell on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 06:20:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Okay so Carter was a better president than Clinton according to that line of thinking. Afterall, he kept the house and senate during his term, right?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

No, he lost the senate when he lost re-election... so, it really is the same thing...


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:58:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't you get it? (none / 0)

Nothing Clinton is good, ever. No Clinton ever did anything good. Clinton rode America like he rode Monica. Will that be an Obama bumper sticker?

It is amazing that Obamabots have to smear all things Clinton, no matter what.


by ineedalife on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Yes, far better for his party.  


by Toddwell on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 06:22:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

That's only half the story. The other half is that they replaced southern conservative dems that wouldn't vote for a progressive agenda.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 06:42:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

A lot of those Southern Conservative Dems were with us on crucial issues like economics and trade.  


by Toddwell on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 06:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

It's the economy, stupid -- AGAIN!

http://OsiSpeaks.com


by KYJurisDoctor on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:27:35 PM EST

Shrum is Dumb... (none / 0)

When Kerry signed on Bob Shrum, I said, "Oh no, this guy is a known loser!"  But, I was willing to believe that John knew what he was doing.  Boy, was I (and Kerry) wrong!  Bob Shrum ios a one-man wrecking crew of Democratic Presidential aspirations.  

As a media guy, I cannot believe that he keeps getting hired.


by krj47 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:39:37 PM EST

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Maybe because people to this day debate how much effect a president actually has on the economy.  Moreover, wasn't there a pending crisis in the home heating oil market in November 2000?


by rfahey22 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 02:50:35 PM EST

It ain't over yet (none / 0)

We have yet to nominate our candidate and at this point, it could go either way. The best candidate by far for a Democratic win in the GE is Hillary Clinton. Forget about the stupid match up polls that are out now. They bear no semblance to the reality of November. She could beat McCain handily because this country wants to move in a new direction.

Obama cannot and must not be the nominee for so many reasons. He's simply too far left for mainstream America to embrace. His negatives in a GE campaign would be far too insurmountable for any success.

John McCain has some good qualities, loads of experience, and he will be a formidable candidate this fall. He's a moderate conservative with broad mainstream appeal. He's a positive change from Bush in that he's bright and articulate and would not allow the sort of inept, incompetent cronies to run things. If the super delegates are unwise enough to allow Obama to be our nominee, there would be many McCain Democrats come November, more than enough to sweep him into the White House.

If Hillary is the nominee, the dawn of a new era could well be born in this country.

Please do all you can to support Hillary. Try to get the media to be fair to her. Eschew the far left-wing blogs that won't allow anything nice to be said about her. Write letters to the super delegates. Continue to look on the bright side and be positive. We can turn this thing around if we try. Wait, as Yoda said, do or do not, there is no try.


by Nobama on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:06:37 PM EST

Re: It ain't over yet (1.50 / 2)

So much for reality.


by rfahey22 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't over yet (1.00 / 1)

The dawn of a new era? The woman and her husband are part of whats wrong.....do anything, say anything, screw anyone to get your way politics......No sir the last thign we need is Hillary. Idiot democratic party had a candidate in John Edwards and they blew it,....now they can watch as McCain wins the GE.


by adbct on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't over yet (2.00 / 1)

I wouldn't go anywhere near that far, but "dawn of a new era" is way out there (and people around here accuse Obama supporters of messianic impulses).  Who is more electable is a debatable point, but a post about "reality" that then states nothing but the writer's opinions (seemingly far-fetched ones, at that) is not terribly credible.  


by rfahey22 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't over yet (none / 0)

I wish you folks would settle on whether Obama is too far too left to win or if he is actually a Republican neocon who is pretending to be a Democrat.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:31:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't over yet (none / 0)

That is the thing isn't it?  We can't settle on this guy because he is trying to be vague about his unity message while at the same time having a left, far left voting record, and then having these right wing advisers who cause him to take some positions that are not for the people, like not supporting universal health care, to name one, which would really disproportionally affect the AA community adversely.

The thing is he is pretending, what he is pretending depends on where he is speaking and to whom he is speaking.  Just like any other politician, he is one of them, not something all that different at all.


democrat voter
by democrat voter on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:45:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It ain't over yet (none / 0)

I agree with you Hillary is the hope for the democratic party, Obama is for Obama, that is who he is really promoting, he thinks about Obama


democrat voter
by democrat voter on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:41:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Damn I wish John Edwards would have hung in there and not dropped out.  He would win going away vs. McCain in a general election.  We should have voted with our heads and not our hearts.  John Edwards was right during the South Carolina debate.


by nzubechukwu on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:45:41 PM EST

Jerome? How do I post (none / 0)

video in a diary?
Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 03:53:25 PM EST

post the diary first (2.00 / 1)

then go into edit, cut the embed code and paste it back in where you want it, and click update.

For some reason, video doesn't work in diaries unless you do it through "edit" after your diary has been posted.

I learned that trick from hwc.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:18:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Many Thanks (none / 0)


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 04:21:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Gotta laugh at the do anything say anything to get elected.  What a crock that line is!!  Of course a politician wants to get elected, that is the game and to think otherwise is just silly.  What good would Obama be if he couldn't get elected?  He would be worth just as much as he is now, because he has yet to actually make the sale to the base of the democratic party.  This is his problem, he has not done that.  He has cobbled together wins with certain groups who are not the base of the party, that is why he is having trouble in the democratic strongholds so far.  He needs to find a way to get voters in the demographic that we must have this fall if he is the nominee and the dems are to win this fall.  I am not sure he can do that, and if not, then he will lose to McCain.

The reason I feel so strongly that Hillary is the democrat to win for the democratic party is because she is carrying the base of our party.  She can actually win this fall, her strong democratic roots are really representative of our party, contrary to the Obama supporters hate lines they always spew.  Obama is not a uniter because he has not demonstrated that he can unite our party.  He must be able to do that first, then appeal to the indy/repubs he is doing it backwards and that makes our base suspicious of him and his motives.  I wonder if he would in fact be a good standard bearer for democratic ideas, he is too willing to go along to get along for me.  There are times when one must hold fast to a position and not compromise, then there are other times where compromise is possible.  When he doesn't want universal health care for all, it indicates to me that he is not carrying that idea with him if he were to get into the WH and that is a strong democratic idea that we simply must carry through on for all of us.

I think it is in fact Obama who will do anything and say anything to get elected, and of course, that is what he is trying to do after all.  I don't think it is such an insult to try to get elected, but what  concerns me is that he has spent so much time trying to diminish Hillary and trash Bill Clinton's administration, he seems to forget that Bill Clinton's administration was good for the country, good for individuals in the country and was reducing poverty, growing incomes at all income levels and balancing the budget.  Obama could have and should have embraced the best democratic president we have had in several decades and then gone on to offer not just more of the same but more and then better democratic progress, nevertheless, he chose to dis Bill Clinton with remarks designed to trash Clinton by saying things like "the republicans were the party of ideas in the last 15 years"  "Reagan was a trans formative president unlike Bill Clinton who was not"  Democrats liked Bill Clinton, they did not think he was a racist, they found that his policies were good for the AA community, and before Obama was dividing us along racial lines, many AAs were in fact supporting Hillary Clinton.  Now the split in the party is deep and was unnecessary for him to do.  I find Obama's rhetoric about how Hillary is so divisive to be a Carl Rove lie that Obama has pushed onto his supporters to the point that they have poisoned the blogasphere with such uncalled for and needless trash.  The was not necessary, it was a lie, and I don't care for republican tactics and talking points being used to promote Obama.  These things only prove that Obama is a politician and will do or say anything to get elected, just like Hillary, he wants to get elected, but he just may have miscalculated about this race card he has continued to play and the racial smears he has used about her.  In the end this may be a bad thing for him, if the AA vote were a bit more balanced, then the white down scale voter might not have been so intimated and wary of him, but this obvious pander to the black politician and the support by black commentators who delight in insulting Hillary daily, they have no credibility when it is so lopsided.  It appears to be exactly what it is, a racial voting block.  Maybe that is why the Latinos are more wary of voting for Obama.

some people may feel that one community might have a better advantage with Obama as president, may feel superior, even though it isn't necessarily true.  I think women feel that way about the possibility of Hillary as president, thinking it would be better for women in general if she were to win the WH.  After all, we have never had a woman as president and that would be quite a change in and of itself.  Women have been the forgotten demographic.  Hillary can get a lot of support from women across the board, even some republican women, who have been willing to vote for her in NY.  There could be such a strong support among women that McCain could not overcome it even with some strong republican votes.  After all, there are about 35% republicans in America and 35% democrats and the rest fall outside any party.

(Now for those who want some links sorry this is merely an opinion, which as far as I can tell so are other posts who include links which are in themselves just some other's opinion dressed up to seem to be something that they really aren't, like polls, which are just peoples' opinions to questions that are designed to get certain results)  


democrat voter
by democrat voter on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 05:20:07 PM EST

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

"Remind me how Gore lost again... nevermind, I'm just reading the final Shrum chapters, on his running media & strategy for Gore in '00 and Kerry in '04."

LOL! Mr. Armstrong, you are wicked. I heard him blame Kerry the other day for not responding to the Swift Boaters. I wonder whose idea it was in Kerry's camp to distance themselves from the very honorable and credible Joe Wilson?


by durendal on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 05:34:15 PM EST

Re: More of that? (none / 0)

Just for clarity Al Gore was not behind in any polls from the Lewinsky episode on. He, in fact, came out of the convention in 2000 with a solid lead. He may have not run the best campaign in the world, but Bob Somerby of The Daily Howler is correct that Gore was systematically smeared by many in the news media for nearly two years. To not take into account the relentless attacks on him by many so called liberals throughout the campaign and the failure to effectively respond to the attacks against his character surely helped to contribute to his defeat.


by pch1351 on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 07:05:44 PM EST

Lewinsky was '98 (2.00 / 0)

Primarily based on likability, Gore trailed Bush in hypothetical polling from the first polls two years in advance, until the Democratic convention. At that point he took a small but steady lead, aided by Bush imploding through one of the worst months ever for a modern presidential candidate. In late September 2000 many Republican analysts like Ed Rollins were conceding the race was all but over if Gore won the first debate.

I'm amazed no one in this thread has identified that first debate. Gore literally sighed away the presidency. I host debate watching parties among 20+ and the women in my living room were aghast at Gore's behavior. One young woman called her mother in mid debate and was screaming into the phone that she couldn't believe she had planned to vote for Gore. It was such a debacle I ran into the other room and was clicking channels, to check which networks were utilizing the split screen as opposed to the head on. The masochism was much more evident on the split screen. Eventually every network went to it.

The remarkable aspect was immediately post debate the talking heads were clueless, analyzing the debate from an issue by issue standpoint. That didn't remotely mirror the reaction I was hearing at my post debate buffet. But a day later I was nauseous before sampling the daily tracking polls, certain reality would set in.

It did, and Gore never fully recovered. He forfeited support among white women and that was all the difference. Gore lost white women by 1 point in November, when he had led by several points prior to the first debate. Don't let anyone downplay the significance of that first debate. I've seen historical analysis highlighting the second debate as more vital, when Gore rolled over and allowed Bush to masquerade as a foreign policy expert. Garbage. I hosted debate parties for all 3 debates and the voting changed only after the first one.

Gore also misplayed Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada. The first two were closer than internal polling indicated and Yucca Mountain was a ripe issue in 2000, much more than 2004 for Kerry, but Gore didn't realize it. Bush was so petrified of the issue he snuck into Nevada only once during the campaign, a brief stop in friendly northern Nevada.  

Otherwise, excellent analysis in this thread from Steve M and desmoinesdem. Clinton receives far too much grief for the '94 debacle. When I began examining political math closely in '96 I was astonished we maintained so many congressional seats in '92, after the '90 re-alignment. Suddenly red districts had voted blue, without logical expectation it could continue, particularly with the presidency changing hands.

As Steve M pointed out, 2000 was such a comfort zone the public adopted a mindset that any president could steer the economy blindfolded. "They haven't led. We will." Incredibly, Bush got away with that absurd summation at the the 2000 Republican convention. And I'm still astonished we haven't hammered the economic disparity. I'm convinced we left many seats on the table even in '06. Iraq was a given, built into the vote. Those narrowly lost House races potentially could have been saved, or at least split, via more focus on the economy. According to the Republican polling firm Strategic Vision, Bush was polling lower on the economy than Iraq in state after state throughout 2006.  


by Gary Kilbride on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 09:06:02 PM EST
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