More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front

This sounds fairly promising...

Michigan Democrats are close to an agreement with presidential candidates Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama to hold a do-over primary.

Party officials and the campaigns negotiated on Thursday, and state Democratic leaders were hopeful that an agreement could be reached on Friday, said Democratic officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks. To go forward, any plan would require the approval of the two campaigns, the Democratic National Committee, state party leaders and Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who is backing Clinton.

So then what the hell is this about?

Details of a possible delegate plan under discussion:

-Michigan's 156 delegates would be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama.

-Florida's existing delegates would be seated at the Denver convention--but with half a vote each. That would give Clinton a net gain of about 19 elected delegates.

- The two states' superdelegates would then be able to vote in Denver, likely netting Clinton a few more delegates.

Halperin goes on to predict that if this compromise measure were to be offered, that Hillary Clinton would accept it, albeit reluctantly, and that it would then be in Barack Obama's court. Huh? Really? I know Clinton has been fairly consistent in her calls for the MI and FL delegates to be seated according to the January primary, but seriously, why would she agree to a compromise that results in something less than a delegate goldmine when the deal would also rob her of potential late big primary victories and all the psychological and media benefits that go along with that. Her entire electability argument targeting the superdelegates is based on having won the "big 4" states: Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I'm not sure how much weight the argument is going to have in the first place, but certainly it will be less so if the victories in two of those four states have asterisks next to them as MI & FL currently do. Fight on a level playing field where both candidates campaign and are on the ballot so that the argument can at least be made with some intellectual honesty and then we're talking. But this compromise looks like a sucker bet if you ask me.



Display:


Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Todd, this entire thing is a mess.  Not only is it an embarrassment for our party, but a great majority of the nation really can't get a hold of why there revisiting this thing.  Seat some delegates. Evenly is fine, and move on.  The $ that they are predicting to cover the possibility of a re-vote can better be spent in the G.E.  Great post bro. Just wanted to put things into perspective.


by nzubechukwu on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:46:00 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Exactly...  For anybody that doesn't have their mind made up right now for how they're going to vote in Nov is probably a low information voter that could care less if "delegates are seated" or not.  Delegates Shmelegates.  They probably don't know what a delegate is and don't care.  To drag this thing out with bickering and fighting is what's going to hurt us.  Not the seating of the delegates.

So what the hell is wrong with a 50/50 split.  The rules (in principle) are followed because the states that broke the rules won't have a say but the people are placated and super dels get to make their choices count.


John McCain defends Bush's Iraq strategy.
by recusancy on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 04:52:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

This talk about "placating the people" is condescending. Why would the people be "placated" with a meaningless 50/50 split? Do you think the "people" to be idiots?

The half-vote in Florida is much better, if a revote isn't possible. The vote still counts but it counts less.

And as for Michigan, only a redo of the vote is meaningful.


by Aris Katsaris on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 05:38:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Spending $10 million dollars for a result that will most likely be a 50/50 split anyways? Seat them with half a vote each (to be fair, they shouldn't count more than the Florida delegates) and 50/50. If Obama agrees and Clinton agree, I'd be more than happy with this solution.


by marcotom on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 05:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

What's wrong with a 50/50 split?  It is grossly undemocratic, even worse than not counting delegates at all. Why?  Because none fails to count your vote.  50/50 steals your vote from you and gives it to somebody else.  


by dhonig on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:56:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Give Obama the total of undecided in Mi and Hillary keeps her votes and then they count as half. How hard is that? No one campaigned in Mi. but Obama had people calling into the State.  I know, I recieved one of those calls.


by owllwoman on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 07:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Exactly...  For anybody that doesn't have their mind made up right now for how they're going to vote in Nov is probably a low information voter that could care less if "delegates are seated" or not.  Delegates Shmelegates.  They probably don't know what a delegate is and don't care.

This comment is brimming over with arrogance.


"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin
by Denny Crane on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:08:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

FL Dem Party seeking input from FL Dems (none / 0)

for solution - but it's only for 1 day - TODAY!

http://www.fladems.com/page/s/primarymem o


Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:07:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dem Party seeking input from FL Dems (none / 0)

I'm a Florida Dem and saw that yesterday. I haven't decided what to submit yet. I'll be leaving for a little bit but will sit down to write my comment to the FDP when I get back.

Anyone have any suggestions?


If Dems take away my primary vote, they don't deserve my general vote.
by Step Beyond on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:35:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dem Party seeking input from FL Dems (none / 0)

My Suggestion:  Run against your state representative to teach them a lesson about doing dumb shit and messing with your states votes by trying to game the system and jump ahead.

Seriously, I would love to see the entire state house turnover this year for this reason.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:56:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dem Party seeking input from FL Dems (none / 0)

I meant suggestions for my comment to the FDP.


If Dems take away my primary vote, they don't deserve my general vote.
by Step Beyond on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dem Party seeking input from FL Dems (none / 0)

I still think you should run for state house :D


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 01:25:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It was a trap set by the Rep Gov and legistlature (none / 0)

It was a trap set by the Rep Governor  and Legistlature. The DNC was not adept at leading us through this. 1.7 million people came out to vote for in the Democratic primary and their votes are being thrown away. I think it will have an effect on the election in November. No matter what you think about what should be done, it is not a good situation for the party. I wish we had more national (and state) leadership to have worked through this in a better way.


by maxstar on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 01:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re-Vote Front (2.00 / 1)

Todd,

I think your analysis is on the money.  Hillary is desperately hoping that she can finish strong and come close enough in the popular vote to make a case to the superdelegates that she ought to be the nominee.  But if some kind of deal is cut like you described, she isn't going to make any headway on the popular vote count, and thus she is doomed for sure, because she trails by way too many pledged delegates.  

If the Obama campaign is smart, they might say 'Yes' to that theoretical deal, leaving Hillary to look like the curmudgeon if she declines it.  On the other hand, as an Obama guy, I'm very reluctant to concede 19 delegates to her for an election that was bogus.  It means that she benefits from this ridiculous rules snafu and Obama doesn't.  Plus, I'm fairly confident that he would take Michigan, and thus by accepting that deal he would also get the short end of the stick by relinquishing his opportunity to extend his lead further.

I hate to imagine what the rest of the world is thinking when they pick up their newspapers and read that the beacon of democracy known as America is actually thinking about counting votes from states in which the voters and the candidates were told that the results would be meaningless.  How do we tell the children?


by global yokel on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:51:26 AM EST

Re: Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

That's why the best play is to let the state parties and the DNC work this out.

The problem with this potential deal is that it relies on the rules committee - if it fails there, there will be no opportunity for a revote.


Further Reading
by Dave Sund on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:59:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

As an Obama supporter, I agree that a re-do is the best possible way to accurately count the votes in both Michigan and Florida.

Given the direction this thread has taken, is it safe to assume that the late night folks on MyDD are pro-Obama, whereas the daytime folks are pro-Clinton?

Literally night and day around these parts...


by doschi on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 05:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Citizens voted in record numbers (none / 0)

Citizens voted in record numbers in Florida in what they saw a legitimate election that they beleived would choose their delegates to the national convention. Don't disenfranchise your brothers and sisters in Florida. Let's face it, these DNC rules have less validity than the rules in 2000 in Florida that gave the election to Bush.

Who cares if a candidate campaigns. I never saw a Presidential candidate except Carter in '76 for the GE, and a candidate this year for a fundraiser. I've voted religiously and spend hours watching CSPAN. Educated people in Florida voted.


by maxstar on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 01:34:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Citizens voted in record numbers (none / 0)

Why was it that Dem votes in Florida was lower than GOP votes? This was so disproportionate to the results in all other states that it proves the assertion that most voters did not take the election seriously.

Why did the Clinton supporters not complain sooner? It's been a year since Florida knew what would happen. Only after Hillary began losing was this issue a problem.

Bottom line is that rules were broken and consequences should result. If a disproportionate vote in Florida is approved, you have effectively negated my legal vote in another state.


by tharr on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 07:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I think we'll see Michigan reach an agreement on a re-vote. I'm less sure about Florida. Florida never seems to get elections right.


Further Reading
by Dave Sund on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:57:17 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (2.00 / 1)

>> Clinton has been fairly consistent in her calls for the MI and FL delegates to be seated according to the January primary...

Clinton has called for the seating of the delegates only since she realised she'll probably lose this thing.  Those contests didn't mean squat to her back in November when it was all so "inevitable."

I say the voters of MI/FL should take up their alleged disenfranchisement with the state party leaders and move on.  The states openly disobeyed the DNC's rules, thought the DNC were bluffing, and should now pay the price.

The voters in both states knew their primaries were a sham.  None of this mattered until Hillary started losing.


by Globe199 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:08:26 AM EST

Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

until Hillary started winning.

Nobody thought it would be a close race and the delegates would matter one way or the other. The winning candidate would seat them.

The DNC tilted the playing field as far to Obama as they could but he is a weak candidate. Even with all the help and money in the world he hasn't been able to put Hillary away.

The DNC allowed IA, NH, and SC to skate with no sanctions and nuked MI and FL.

The DNC should just revert to its automatic sanctions and not Donna Brazille's draconian ones. Seat the delegates from each state with one half votes. The uncommitted MI delegates stay uncommitted. Obama made a strategic choice to take his name of the ballot and reaped the benefits with a win in IA and frontrunner status. The non-campaign pledge was once again a strategic choice made by the candidates, not a DNC requirement. They should live with the consequence of their actions.

Of course this common sense solution nets Hillary more delegates so it is "unfair".


by ineedalife on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 07:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

"Nobody thought it would be a close race and the delegates would matter one way or the other. The winning candidate would seat them.

The DNC tilted the playing field as far to Obama as they could but he is a weak candidate. Even with all the help and money in the world he hasn't been able to put Hillary away."

I can't see how Sen. Obama could be called a "weak candidate".  Romney, Huckabee, Edwards, Gravel -- those are weak candidates, with an excess of spending and not much to show for it.  Sens. Clinton and Obama have both raised incredible amounts of money, mobilized hundreds of thousand volunteers, and brought many new Democratic voters to the polls. (The huge D turnouts are an obvious sign of this.)

If I were testing for bias in the nomination process, I'd go back six months and look at how the campaigns regarded the DNC rules. I don't think you'll find Sen. Clinton's campaign objecting much in late 2007 -- instead I remember seeing her on George Stephanopolous' talk show proclaiming that the race would be over by midnight on Feb. 5.  Inevitability was everywhere.  

Nope, Sen. Clinton has run into a candidate who has run a historic campaign -- the first successful grassroots presidential campaign in the mass media age -- and has been quite effective. Sen. Clinton, despite the constant media/online sniping, hasn't run a bad campaign.  She's been wonderful at raising $$ from large & small donors, she's a good stump speaker (as is her husband!), and the media strategy has been solid (until recently IMO).  She just happened to run into something new.

And, please, stop with the argument "Obama is so weak, he can't put Clinton away".  It's illogical and reflects poorly on Sen. Clinton.  She's a fighter, remember?  It should be hard to put her away!


by Twin Planets on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 07:53:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

 Romney, Huckabee, Edwards, Gravel -- those are weak candidates, with an excess of spending and not much to show for it.

Are you kidding?  The only candidate there who had an excess of spending was Romney, and I really can't believe you're calling Edwards a weak candidate.


"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin
by Denny Crane on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:13:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

>> I really can't believe you're calling Edwards a weak candidate.

How many states did Edwards win?  He was weak in 2004 and WEAKER in 2008.

debate moderator: "Senator Edwards, what should we do about the situation in Iraq?"

Edwards: "Well, first, we need to make sure everyone in America has healthcare."


by Globe199 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:00:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

A bunch of 3rd place finishes doesn't make you a strong candidate.  You may like his politics more than Obama but he is a far weaker candidate.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:58:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

not to mention the fact that Clinton herself was unable to put Obama away.

In Iowa
on Mini Tuesday
after Nevada
after Texas and Ohio

That would make her an ever weaker candidate no?


!
by alex100 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:26:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

Hillary had three chances to "put him away", too.  Iowa, NH, and Super Tuesday.  She failed in every regard.  By your metric that makes her a weak candidate as well.

It's only because of her name recognition that she gets to lose 12 contests in a row, and still be in it, while Barack Obama has to literally go undefeated to even be considered as the de facto nominee.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:21:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Actually none of this mattered... (none / 0)

until Hillary started winning
Actually, She was the CW presumptive favorite until Obama won Iowa.
The DNC tilted the playing field as far to Obama
No, Get it straight: MI and FL screwed themselves by ignoring the warnings of the DNC and moving their primaries into the early window looking for campaign money and influence. They got greedy.  If they had bothered to follow the DNC procedure to get into the early window they might have made it into the early period.  They didn't even apply.
...he is a weak candidate. Even with all the help and money in the world he hasn't been able to put Hillary away.
Neither is a weak candidate (look at the bucks they're bringing in). However, this is really a battle between the 'old guard' democrats with their battleground states and 'states that matter' strategy versus the new progressive democrats pursuing a 50 state strategy.
The DNC allowed IA, NH, and SC to skate
Because these three states were in the sanctioned pre Feb 5 window.
The DNC should just revert to its automatic sanctions and not Donna Brazille's draconian ones.
Actually, it now falls to the credential committee to allow the MI & FL delegates or not.  whichever campaign is ahead in pledged delegates gets to have the majority of committee members, guess who that is.  Now do you understand why MI & FL are desperate to get back into this contest in some way? They thought they could be kingmakers by ignoring the DNC and have managed to make themselves into the court jesters by THEIR GREED.
Of course this common sense solution nets Hillary more delegates so it is "unfair"
 Obama campaign controls the process with the credentials committee, this is why Hillary is making such an issue about seating & do overs. If MI & FL don't get it right, they'll be seated right after the Presidential Nominee is selected. BTW life isn't fair either, them that control have a tendency to keep it, whichever side it is on.
by NvDem on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:57:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I see that Corzine and Carville and a few other Hillary supporters have been talking about raising $15 million to help Michigan and Florida conduct proper primaries.  But I would think there are some ethical issues surrounding that idea.  I can see it now, "Brought to you by Hillary Clinton, a brand-new election!"

Somehow I don't think that one is gonna fly.


by global yokel on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:09:24 AM EST

Re: Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Especially since Obama's core donors are small fries like me and you. (or maybe not you)  Sure they can go around and ask their rich friends for dough...  And what's it going to help anyways.  MI will be a wash.  FL will be close but go Clinton by a little bit... but not enough to make any difference.


John McCain defends Bush's Iraq strategy.
by recusancy on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 04:56:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I see that you missed the point.  Carville and Corzine have been asking the Obama folks to meet them halfway.  Each side would raise half of the money for the re-votes. Or are you being deliberately disingenuous?


"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin
by Denny Crane on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:15:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

If Obama has some big corporate donors ready to step in, that would indeed be the option. He shouldn't let his grass-roots supporters pay for it though, no way.


by marcotom on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:21:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I'm on board with Globe199.  Hillary is on tape stating that the results of the FL and MI primaries would not count.  No way does she get away with now claiming that those delegates are hers.  In fact, it was an enormous tactical error for her to advocate for seating those delegates.  A more transparently self-serving move would be hard to imagine.  If she was so deeply concerned about not disenfranchising the voters of those two states, she should have been pushing for proper primary elections.  She chose to take the low road, and it cost her a lot of votes.


by global yokel on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:12:40 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Good point...maybe she should have pushed the state party leaders to follow the rules that were agreed upon.  But then again, she didn't think she'd need the voters of FL/MI.  Talk about disenfranchisement.


by Globe199 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:21:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Who the F%&$ knows what's going on!!! every day, there's a different headline saying it's on or it's off...  I don't think anyone's going to know until June, when either they've had the vote or the deadline passes.


"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"
by LordMike on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:15:14 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages (2.00 / 1)

I agree that's it's to Hillary's favor to have a legitimate new primary in FL because she'll win and try to use the momentum, but I really don't see how Hillary beats Obama in Michigan if he campaigns heavily there.

But I'm still trying to understand all this pro-Hillary passion around here. From my perspective she's extremely intelligent and capable, but much more conservative, much more status quo, and much more pro-lobbyist and pro-corporation. All you have to do is look at the results of the Bill Clinton presidency, throughout which the war on the middle class continued to be viciously waged and won.

Have y'all never listened to Thom Hartmann or what?


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:35:35 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

"But I'm still trying to understand all this pro-Hillary passion around here. From my perspective she's extremely intelligent and capable, but much more conservative, much more status quo, and much more pro-lobbyist and pro-corporation."

Progressives are very split on who is more conservative, pro-lobbyist, and pro-corporation. Hillary's health care and economic proposals are definitely much more progressive than Obama's, as are her choices of advisors on all the domestic issues. Obama's advisors are to the right of her's by a significant margin. On foreign affairs and national security Obama is more to the left. It depends on how you value each set of issues.

I am passionately dedicated to her for her health care plan and other economic proposals, and I tend to be more centrist on foreign affairs, so her views are a very good fit for me as a progressive.


by 07rescue on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 05:22:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

I just don't get that perspective on health care.

If she was proposing universal, government-supplied healthcare/insurance - fine.

But she's not.

She's proposing universally mandated insurance purchases.  Sure - she's proposing tax breaks, but there is nothing in her plan that is going to do much to curb the expenses for a family or person comfortably above the poverty line.

If you make less than 20K?  Sure... maybe you get covered under Medicaid (note that even covering 20K basically means DOUBLING the federal Medicaid minimums).

But what if you're making 30K?  or 40K?   If you live in a major metropolitan area - you are most certainly struggling to meet all your bills as it is.... now you suddenly have to find some way to buy insurance that's gonna cost you 3-4K per year?  

How is that more progressive than an opt-in program that also seeks to lower costs?

To my dying breath, I will rail against any mandated insurance purchases.

Put a plan on the table that calls for a Social Security type program where we all pay into a system, and, providing the details make sense - I can probably get behind that.

But Clinton's plan does NOT do that.  An awful lot of Americans who aren't quite poor enough to qualify for fully subsidized programs are going to be left to at the mercy of the glorified "free market" of insurance providers.

When your rent is due in June - a tax subsidy that might mean a bigger return in next April doesn't help much.


by zonk on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:46:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

I have to say, I don't think Hillary's health-care proposal is more "progressive". It does cover many more people but it itself will not be universal. it does provide more business to the insurance companies though. Obama's plan falls flatter IMO.

Mandating coverage is dangerous at a political level. Allowing choice may not be the best short term approach but it's one that allows folks to trust government on health care until single payer can be implemented. The problem with this reasoning is not knowing if Single Payer will ever come to the U.S.

in many regards, Obama pushing his plan forward while decreasing the lobbyist stranglehold on D.C. is possibly the best long-term solution to health care. Hillary's is the best short-term "fix".

pick your poison. But don't call either plan "progressive" until the government takes the responsibility on itself to provide for everyone.


!
by alex100 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:47:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

>"I am passionately dedicated to her for her health care plan and other economic proposals, and I tend to be more centrist on foreign affairs, so her views are a very good fit for me as a progressive."

Having experienced the repeated disappointments of the 2006 democratic congress, it's time to be realistic about the possibility of actually getting health care reform PASSED. The small differences between the two plans are subject to be changed, both for the better and the worse.

Hillary was completely humiliated in 1992. What Obama has that she doesn't is the weapon of oratory and he'll need that MUCH more when he tries to fix the healthcare system than he needs it now to beat HRC and McCain. The only way to get the health care system fixed is to speak loudly and passionately and convincingly about it until the whole nation is chanting FIX IT NOW! That's what it'll take to scare our horribly corrupt democratic representatives into disobeying their corporate masters.

That's when the power of words will start to really mean something.


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 01:54:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't know if I qualify (none / 0)

as middle class, but I do know that times were better for me economically during the Clinton years than at any other time in my adult life.


by georgiapeach on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 07:33:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't know if I qualify (none / 0)

Well, macro vs. micro and all...

But I've been lower middle class/middle class all my life.

I'm personally having a much better time of it financially in the aughts than I did in the 90s.

I spent a good portion of the 90s really struggling at times to be able to afford an el ride to work, and the 90s for me was a constant decision on whether to keep my gas, my electric, or my phone on -- I couldn't afford all 3.

I'm doing much better in the aughts -- all my bills are paid, my debts are manageable, and I'm finally even eating into my student loan principle.

I don't blame Bill Clinton for my tough economic times in the 90s any more than I credit George Bush for being more financially secure in the aughts.


by zonk on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:50:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Maybe we have an age difference. (none / 0)

I started working during the 80. With both Reagan and Bush I, good paying jobs were scarce. During the 90's just about anybody that wanted a job had one. Employers knew this, and generally treated their employees better. I've seen this trend reversed under Bush II. But that's just my perspective.


by georgiapeach on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:52:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't know if I qualify (none / 0)

The deregulation of capitalism and destruction of the middle class has progressed unabated from Reagan to Bush to Clinton to Bush. The Clintons are just playing "good cop".

Your stock portfolio went up under Clinton and your house went up in value, but the chances of your kid being able to buy a house or afford health care went straight to hell.

The Clintons and the Bushes are part of this. Epty words? Compare what Bill Clinton said to the bills he actually signed. He was deregulating and outsourcing as fast as his little legs could carry him. And health care costs at least tripled under his watch.


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

The largest economic expansion in US history is what you're calling a war on the middle class?


"It pays to be obvious, especially if you have a reputation for subtlety". Salvor Hardin
by Denny Crane on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:17:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

But can that be attributed to Clinton?  This is an honest question.  The effect that presidents have on the economy has been debated for decades.  Plus, things were going south as he left office (which hurt Gore).


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:38:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages (none / 0)

The largest economic expansion in US history is what you're calling a war on the middle class?

Hell yes I am. Look at the results. The middle class is dying before your eyes.

Get thee to thomhartmann.com. You guys are not playing with a full deck.


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

One reason Hillary might agree is because her campaign has given up on catching up in delegates, and is now doing everything it can catch up in popular vote. So even if the Michigan delegates are split 50-50 and the Florida delegates only counted as half a vote, perhaps they feel they'll be able to add the popular votes from those states onto their total? Which in my estimation, would put them ahead in the popular vote, putting aside the question of whether it's reasonable to count MI. That's the only reason I can think of.


by animated on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:57:13 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Hillary doesn't lead in the popular vote even including Florida where Clinton had higher name recognition and Michigan where his name wasn't even on the ballot.  Including Fl & MI, Obama still leads the popular vote by 80k.


by zadura on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 04:22:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Regardless, including FL and MI would pad her total considerably.


by animated on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 04:35:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

No doubt it would pad her total, but I was refuting your claim that she would lead in the popular vote count.  She clearly would not even with Florida and Michigan.


by zadura on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 05:10:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not Exactly Right (none / 0)

With Michigan and Florida included, Hillary is only behind by about 80,000. She can make that up in Pennsylvania.

The problem is, counting Michigan's popular vote as-is seems totally bogus. If you counted all "uncommitted" as Obama votes, he would probably still be ahead after Pennsylvania. So on some level Clinton won't be able to make a coherent popular vote argument to superdelegates without re-votes. And even with re-votes, she might not be able to erase Obama's lead.


by HatchInBrooklyn on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 08:30:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not Exactly Right (none / 0)

Possibly, but that ignores four caucus states that have not released vote totals and it also does not take subsequent primaries into account.  It is inaccurate to say that she would only be down by 80,000 after adding in Michigan and Florida - you would have to come up with some estimate of the votes in the caucus states that haven't released totals.


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:53:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not Exactly Right (none / 0)

Also zero votes for Obama in Michigan hardly reflects the "will of the people."


by Wes on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:56:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (2.00 / 1)

Obama is ahead around 800,000 not 80K. There is no hope of catching him on the pledged delegates so Clinton is not going to care about the half a vote. For the purposes of making her case she will use 100% of the popular votes from these 2 states.

Hillary's only hope is to crush Obama in PA. A win like Ohio won't cut it. Picking up 15-30 more delegates and 100-150,000 more popular votes will mean it's over. She can't go into the convention down in every metric, states, popular votes and pledged delegates.

So be ready in the last days leading up to PA for Penn to go all out dirty, it will make the lead up to Ohio will look like patty cake. Only this time Obama will know it's coming and his response will likely to be equally as damaging. I imagine after PA the negatives of both candidates and the party will be much, much higher and the party will be much more polarized then it is now whatever the outcome.

I'm sure the Republicans who were hopeless and resigned to a humiliating defeat a few months ago are looking at this like a divine intervention. It looks like hope will survive the Democratic primaries, in the electoral chances of the Republican party. McCAin is probably wondering what good deed he did in his life that has got both sides of Democratic partisans threatening to vote McCain if their candidate loses.

The Democratic party once again pulling defeat from the jaws of victory once again.


by hankg on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

No, I did the math.  It's 80K.  Go here.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l


by SandyS on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 08:37:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

That is including MI and FL. There is no way MI is going to be included and they will likely have a re-vote. Obama will certainly do better and may win in MI so forget including those numbers.

FL is not going to be counted as is if it skews the results. Hillary knows that so she now has changed from count them as they stand to let's have a re-vote but the Republican dominated state government will be sure to sabotage any resolution that would help the Democratic party out of its mess (like a full blown redo of the primary). Mail in voting is illegal under Florida law so that looks DOA. In the end they will probably come to some compromise that makes no one happy.

Hillary is not going to be able to go to the super delegates with the MI and FL elections as they stand now. Partisans can convince themselves of anything on Daily Kos or myDD but super delegates who's own political futures are on the line won't be swayed by spin. Obama is claiming a 1 million popular vote advantage and Hillary may claim that it's only 80K but no one but fervent partisans are going to buy campaign hype from either side.

If Hillary comes out of PA with only 150,000 or so gain she's done. Obama goes into the convention leading in all metrics and his pledged delegate lead means he may only need to convince 35% of supers to vote for him to end it.

A lot of those supers are from Red States where Obama has done well. Looking at his fund raising advantage, on the ground organization in those red states and Hillary's contention that those states should be abandoned as a waste of time it would seem if any of them want to get reelected in those states 'that don't count' they will be voting for Obama. The big state argument cuts both ways with supers. They are not only considering the top of the ticket but what will be of most benefit to them in their down ticket races and efforts to build the local party.


by hankg on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:06:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Again, this ignores four caucus states in which Obama would have had a net gain.


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:32:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

If you include MI and FL, she will trail the popular vote by 80K. But if she wins big in Pennsylvania, she'll lead be close to 200K-300K.  It's a smart plan on her part.


by mashews on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 08:46:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

The popular vote comparison is meaningless. How can we compare primary vote with caucus votes. It would be more meaningful if the caucus votes were converted to equivalent primary votes. In other words, a caucus vote might represent 500 actual votes or whatever.

If you do that, only then does a popular vote comparison have validity.

And yes, it's a smart plan on her part....born out of desperation.


by tharr on Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 08:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (2.00 / 2)

This is beginning to feel like middle school relationship drama. No one is behaving rationally, the story seems to keep changing and you can never really identify the source of the news.

"Well, Bill Nelson told me that if they did not seat the delegates then he was not going to take Nancy Pelosi to the dance."

"Really, I heard that Obama asked Nancy already, and he doesn't like the delegates from FL & MI."

"No, you are both wrong, I heard that Hillary and Bill have promised that everyone who supports a revote can come to their super-cool after party at the lake house."


by hctb on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 04:05:29 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (2.00 / 1)

Best summary of the situation so far!


by marcotom on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:06:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

change my life for the one day Hillary clinton (none / 0)

change my life for the one day Hillary clinton, see in
http://elvalordeundia.blogspot.com

Regards


by petterpump on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 06:26:33 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Michigan is a case where it's probably best for Clinton to run out the clock.  It's better for her to be able to point to an extremely flawed large victory than have an exceedingly narrow win or a loss.

Here's my question - how do you make sure that the Michigan vote isn't tampered with by the Limbaughs of the world?  With no party registration and no election at all on the Republican side, it would be easy to play games.  Are records kept of which ballot you took in January?  If so, you could just have to sign an oath under the penalty of perjury that you didn't vote Republican then; maybe the voter rolls could have those names removed for this election.  If that's not done, then there's no way this will be a fair election.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:55:22 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

You're exactly right; it would not be a fair vote.  Which is why the rules of the DNC, previously agreed to by both states, should be obeyed.  Michigan and Florida fucked up.  That's the bottom line.


by Globe199 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:09:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

And Obama F***d up too, by removing his name from the ballot - which was his intention all along.


by cmugirl90 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:16:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Yes, he removed his name from the ballot of a sham election -- which everyone (INCLUDING SENATOR CLINTON) knew was a sham BEFORE any voting took place.


by Globe199 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:23:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Yes, and the voters who stayed home after being told that their votes wouldn't count f***ed up too, I guess.  I don't understand how this meme gives Clinton the moral high ground.  Everyone agreed that those results wouldn't count, period.


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:34:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

The Clinton campaign keeps claiming an advantage for Hillary because she can win the big states, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio and Obama can't.

Win these states? These are primaries, against Obama not McCain, where also she often has the advantage of support from officials such as Pennsylvania's governor and Philidelphia's mayor.

It is nonsense to contend that Obama would not do well in these states. Does Clinton believe that those who voted for her in the primaries will suddenly become Republicans?

homer  www.altara.blogspot.com


by Homer on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:25:47 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

She's got the Pittsburgh mayor, too.

Demographically, insitutionally, and even geographically -- PA is probably the most prohibitively Clinton-friendly turf this side of NY.


by zonk on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:54:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I think this proves that nobody here knows the full story, which of course won't dissuade some people from shooting from the hip with their conspiracy theories.


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:30:12 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Nothing in the DNC rules remotely suggests that in addition to their delegate punishment, Michigan and Florida's popular vote should be ignored.  Popular vote is just that: how many people made the effort to go to the polls for their candidate.  Beware of the candidate who argues against counting the popular vote.

And ask any media savvy person whether you can do an ad buy and leave out particular markets.  Ask the Obama campaign if their "national" ads ran in Iowa and New Hampshire from January 8th to January 29th.


On to the Convention Floor!
by oh puhleeze on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:44:59 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Popular vote where only one major candidate was on the ballot?  Popular vote where voters were told that their vote wouldn't count?  Yeah, that seems fair.


But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.
by thezzyzx on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:49:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Saddam Hussein also won a large majority of the popular vote in his last election.  Having a single name on the ballot tends to deligitimize the process, as does telling the voters beforehand not to bother because their votes won't count (to which all candidates also agreed).    


by rfahey22 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 10:50:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Popular vote is irrelevant.  The nomination is awarded based on delegates.  The only reason that the popular vote has been made an issue is that Hillary thinks she can convince superdelegates to support her, completely ignoring the fact that she cannot catch Obama in the delegate race.


by Globe199 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:24:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

No, the popular vote is not "irrelevant."  What a delightfully democratic high horse.  Was it irrelevant to you in 2000?  
It is not the determining factor, but, believe what you will, it will not be irrelevant to the superdelegates if one candidate has more delegates and the other wins the popular vote.  Especially given the wildly skewed caucus-delegate to primary-delegate voter ratio.

No, the nomination is not awarded "based on delegates" in that it is not based on who is ahead in the delegate total at the end of the primaries.  

Regarding Forida, despite the dampening effect on voters knowing they would not be seating delegates, over a million and a half voters trudged to the polls to participate.  By all means, support the position that their votes mean nothing.  Nothing.

Regarding Michigan, Obama voluntarily removed his name to gain a tactical advantage (then campaigned zealously for uncommitted votes to humiliate Clinton), and now complains that his name wasn't on the ballot.  


On to the Convention Floor!
by oh puhleeze on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:37:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

it will be absolutely unacceptable to half the number of delegates in Florida and split 50-50 in Michigan.
Hillary will be stupid to accept this trick, which is equivalent ot stealing votes from people and like a undesrving gift to Obama.

My reaction to this proposal is HELL NO!


Landslide of lies
by engels on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:10:15 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

The only fair thing to do would be to hold a full primary in FL and it is not going to happen. Even if the funding could be found it would require cooperation  from the Republicans who control the state and they are not going to do anything that will aide the Democratic party. Mail in votes for primaries are illegal in FL. All the remaining solutions are lousy and screw some segment of voters.

Although the Clinton campaign talks about all the Floridians who turned out to vote the turnout of Democrats v Republicans in Florida compared to other states was pathetic. If is a safe to assume that had there been a real campaign that Democrats would have outnumbered Republicans at the polls by similar numbers to every other state that voted including the reddest of red states. So more then a million voters stayed home especially those for whom the property tax proposition was not a big deal, which would include younger voters, students and renters. Telling those million or so voters screw you, we told you it would not count so you didn't vote but now we are changing the rules and you don't get to vote is not any better then any of the half-baked plans being floated.

MI can probably do a full revote which will fix that states issues. But once again Florida will be a huge clusterf**k.


by hankg on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 01:15:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

thanks to stupid Dean


Landslide of lies
by engels on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 04:39:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm an Obama supporter (none / 0)

But I've gotta say, "seat the Florida delegates but make them vote 50-50" is baffling.  

I propose we seat 100 delegates from Mars, who also have to vote 50-50 for Clinton/Obama.  

Who the heck are the people who think this solves anything?


by snaktime on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 11:45:26 AM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I have a similar compromise proposal, but with the caveat that Hillary should get her full 55% of the Michigan vote, Obama gets the remainder 45%, and the MI delegates are halved just like in Florida.


by azizhp on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:12:58 PM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Can't we just seat the pledged delegations, but force the superdelegates of Florida and Michigan to vote for Obama to do so (as well as allocate uncommitted in MI to Obama)? According to my calculations, this would be a net 11 or 12 delegate gain for Clinton - if past experience in close big states is any comparison (i.e. Ohio, Texas, Florida), this is about the same result that would happen anyways, it costs nothing, disenfranchises noone, and is probably acceptable to both campaigns.

This has the happy side benefit of punishing the leaders of FL and MI for screwing this up for their constituents by effectively constraining their votes as superdelegates.


by tedit on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:19:16 PM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

Oops, I meant Ohio, Texas, California, not Florida.


by tedit on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:20:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Clintons and the Middle Class (none / 0)

How old are you people? I'm 53. I remember the middle class. I don't think you even know what it is. When I was a kid, a freaking milkman could buy a house and put 3 kids through college without his wife working.

Earth to mydd. Earth to mydd. Earth to mydd. We have a problem.

The Bushes and the Clintons have killed the middle class and they're not done yet. Wake up. Your passion and loyalty are badly misplaced. Snap out of it. Go read Thom Hartmann.


McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist.
by obsessed on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 02:20:52 PM EST

Re: More Mixed Messages On The Re-Vote Front (none / 0)

I support Obama, but I agree with Clinton about Florida and Michigan to an extent. The votes should stand as is in Florida and the delegates should be allocated accordingly. But in Michigan, the compromise should be a caucus (because it is cheaper and allows Obama to get his name back on the ballot).

I would even be okay with Michigan standing as is. In the end, Obama will still have a lead of about 60-80 pledged delegates come June.


by tomanderson13 on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 03:20:18 PM EST


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