MyDD :: A Popular Vote Projection (with pictures!)

A Popular Vote Projection (with pictures!)

by carbocation, Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:15:56 PM EST

So far this year Obama's leaked spreadsheet has had a reasonable amount of accuracy in projecting the vote percentages of future contests. It's likely that Obama will end up with a pledged delegate lead. What about the popular vote? In this projection I have used the leaked spreadsheet percentages to predict the final popular vote.

80% of the Kerry popular vote from the 2004 general election was used to determine turnout in each upcoming state. In the case of Puerto Rico I used 80% of the popular vote in the 2004 gubernatorial race. For Guam I multiplied the 2008 Virgin Islands turnout by 150%.

Why 80%? It's an arbitrary choice between two relative extremes. If you look at Ohio, its turnout was exactly 80% of the Kerry 2004 vote. Texas is on the high end, where turnout was almost 100% of the Kerry vote. States like California and Illinois had a turnout of roughly 69% with respect to the Kerry vote.

In my opinion Michigan and Florida are going to get revotes. Recent polls show Obama and Clinton head to head in Michigan, and Clinton leading substantially in Florida. For the sake of argument I've given Clinton a moderate 4 point lead in Michigan, and a substantial 17 point lead in Florida. This seems like a best case scenario for Clinton, as she her largest "big state" blowout was also 17 points in New York.

In this scenario Obama would end up with a 95,573 vote lead. Puerto Rico is a large an unknown. If it the states breaks down PPD and PNP lines, then I doubt either candidate will net a substantial popular vote. Florida and Michigan are the other wild cards. If they aren't considered, then Obama would have a popular vote lead of roughly 800,000 votes. Even in a favorable Clinton scenario as I've described, she would not be able to overcome Obama's lead with wins in Michigan and Florida. I have a feeling that the popular vote from these two states is greatly overestimated with the method that I've used, as one state will be using 'firehouse primaries' and the other will be using an untested mail-in ballot system.

Here's a graph of Obama's net popular vote lead over time. I think this well illustrates the mountain Clinton will have to climb in order to win this nomination:

I can understand why Clinton has decided to stay in this race. However if she does not over perform this prediction in Pennslyvania, North Carolina, or Indiana then I believe her chances for overcoming Obama's popular vote lead are drastically reduced. Even as an Obamaniac, I don't see a 140-150 pledged delegate and a 95,000 popular vote lead as convincing enough to force Clinton to drop out before the convention. Unfortunately, all signs point to Denver.

Tags: Obama, Clinton, popular vote, predictions (all tags)

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Does my prediction seem reasonable?

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:19:21 PM EST

No, it doesn't. You give her way too small a margin in Pennsylvania -- which is the biggest potential source of both delegates and votes (other than Florida).

Her current lead in the polls there is in the mid- to high-teens. The state is very similar to Ohio and New Jersey, except for the fact that PA only allows Democrats to vote -- and, according to exit polls, Clinton's lead among Democrats in those two states was in the high teens, if I recall correctly.

Clinton is heading for a blowout victory in PA, which means your estimates of that state, at least, are off. We also don't know how that could affect the follow up states, which means it may be too early to judge the reasonableness of your other predictions.

by markjay on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 08:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, no shit (none / 0)

there is pretty much no way in hell that Clinton won't win PA by at least 10%- unless that is, if she is found in bed with a boy or with a dead woman.

by linc on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 09:12:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hmm, I think you give Clinton too small a victory in Penn, and give her too large a victory in Michigan and Kentucky...Likely, there will be no re-vote in Florida so those popular votes won't matter.

by mecarr on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:21:35 PM EST

Interesting analysis. Even as an Obama supporter, Penn is a little close, but I think that Obama's support in OR and NC will be higher, so it's a wash. I really like the graph; what program did you use?

by NewOaklandDem on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:25:22 PM EST

Thanks. I used Excel 2007.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:26:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Looks like it might be time for me to upgrade...

by NewOaklandDem on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:27:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clinton would not win MI and would not come nearly as close as you have her coming in SD, OR, MT and NC.

What would LBJ do?

by Socks The Cat on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:25:36 PM EST

Obama's spreadsheet underestimated by his defeat in Ohio by a 3 points, so I wouldn't be surprised if something similar occurred in Pennsylvania.

Kentucky and WV seem like ideal states for Clinton. Why do you think it's overestimated?

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:25:49 PM EST

I agree with your West Virginia projection, but Louisville Kentucky is basically hippy country and full of young people. I think this would make it closer. I know it's just me, but I don't understand why people think Clinton will win Puerto Rico so easily. Obama has the support of the governor of Puerto Rico and the latinos living there are not the same kind of latinos who come from Texas and New Mexico. Many Puerto Ricans are of european ancestry.

by mecarr on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:28:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree. The two major parties in Puerto Rico are PPD and PNP. It seems like the PPD machine is lining up behind Obama, but I haven't heard much about PNP and Clinton. If they do divide along this line, then the race should be relatively close. However, Jesse Jackson did win Puerto Rico in 1988, so this may indicate that Puerto Ricans may hold a more positive view of blacks than continental Latinos.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Very interesting. I think the two places where Clinton's support is most clearly understated are Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico. Of course, I could be wrong, which is why they actually count the votes.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:38:41 PM EST

Here's an interesting take of PR:

Will Puerto Rico prove crucial? "It remains to be seen," says Kevin Mead, editor at The San Juan Star, an English-language newspaper. "It depends on what ends up happening with Florida and Michigan. If they get re-done they could steal a little bit of Puerto Rico's thunder." In the meantime, the paper is tracking the daily developments of the race.

Mead's team has started to gear up to cover the historic election. While he says they will not be hiring any new staff, they will be reshuffling people and duties to give the primaries the best coverage. "It's a challenge," he said. "This is obviously going to pick up momentum and we're going to give it all we have."

Ordinarily during an election year, the San Juan Star uses a lot of wire stories, especially after the primaries are over since Puerto Rico doesn't vote in the general election. They also have a reporter in Washington who "gets the local angle on stories," Mead says. But this year, things could be a lot bigger and need a lot more local attention, especially if Clinton and Obama come and campaign on the island. "We'll clear the boards if they're coming," Mead says.

In past primaries, Clinton has been racking up the votes among Hispanics, but what will happen in Puerto Rico? Bill Clinton was popular in the territory, and Hillary has continued to enjoy wide support, Mead says. But a hot topic for Puerto Ricans is their status with the United States, and Obama's clear-cut and thorough position on the issue won him the support of the Puerto Rican governor, Anibal Acevedo Vila, who endorsed Obama on Feb. 13.

Obama supports keeping the status quo in Puerto Rico, with its semi-autonomous standing with the United States. He, like Vila, who is also a super-delegate, opposes legislation that would force the territory to choose between statehood and independence. Clinton supported this measure. Obama also advocates economically supporting the island and cleaning up the former U.S. Navy lands in Vieques, which was used as a bomb-testing zone. So Vila's endorsement could help garner support for the Illinois senator.

Vila said in his endorsement: "Senator Obama demonstrates the strongest commitment to Puerto Rico that we have seen in recent times in U.S. politics."

Still, Editor Mead thinks Clinton has the edge. "I see her ahead at the moment," he says, "and I don't see that changing."

by katrinareyes on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 06:40:18 PM EST

I've read that HIllary has PR locked up (none / 0)

and that she could win it with 70-80%.

by andgarden on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:02:23 PM EST

Re: I've read that HIllary has PR locked up (none / 0)

Could you post a link? I haven't seen much information about the status of PR beyond a few endorsements.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:08:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What happens if Clinton beats Obama in PN by like 58% to 38%?

by MediaFreeze on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:20:34 PM EST

All else being equal based on this projection model, Clinton would be ahead by 256,999 votes.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:24:18 PM EST

*If PN results were changed 58% Clinton to 38% Obama.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great pics! (none / 0)

Nice work ... though a swing by a couple of points in a couple of large states can have an entirely difference outcome.

Slightly OT: how'd you post those pics on this site? Where did you upload it? Thanks.

by Sieglinde on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:34:33 PM EST

Re: Great pics! (none / 0)

I used imageshack.us to host the pictures and then html code to link them in the diary (irc src = " ").

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 07:44:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why is IN called for Obama? I know it borders IL, but it also borders OH and I'd think that it's demographically more similar to OH too. Any thoughts?

by costanoan on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 08:09:16 PM EST

Polls have shown Obama leads by around 10-12%..

by mecarr on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 08:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Indiana is an open primary so we may substantial Republican crossover like in Mississippi. The one poll that's out has Obama with a substantial lead, but it's dated and has a large number of undecideds. Illinois' media market overlaps with much of Indiana. The two heavily Democratic areas are Marion county (Indianapolis, 15% black population) and the Northwest counties contains urban sprawl that is contiguous with Chicago.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 09:22:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i have diff projection for you: (none / 0)

PA will go Hillary 60-39%.
Her momentum will drive NC to Hillary's favor 50-49 and IN to 53-46%.
It will move WV to 64-35 and KY to 59-40 for Hillary.
Than PR will be 60-39 too, as well Florida to 58-40 and Michigan to 54-46.
You are looking for huge advantage for Hillary in popular vote.

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 08:36:57 PM EST

Re: i have diff projection for you: (none / 0)

All else being equal, that would put Hillary's lead at 849,226.

by carbocation on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 09:19:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: i have diff projection for you: (none / 0)

PR will be huge. 2 Million voters voted for the Governor election. They are expecting more votes this time.

So who wins PR will win the popular Vote.

by indus on Thu Mar 13, 2008 at 11:13:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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