First let me put my biases on the table. I've favored a revote for Florida and Michigan since the beginning of the process. It should have happened earlier, but Clinton was pushing for a solution that obviously wasn't going to happen (sitting the candidates as is) and time kept passing and passing. Finally, a rush solution was created, but it has enough problems that it will never happen. As those annoying posters say, "Lack of planning on your part will not constitute an emergency on my part."
What's wrong with the plan? Well let's look at the memo. There's something buried in there that people might miss when they're studying the details of the process.
What is that? The timeline. There's going to be a month of public comments during which the plan can be changed. The plan won't be finalized until it's submitted to the DNC for approval in mid April. In order for the plan to work, the ballots have to be mailed to overseas participants 5 days after it is presented to the DNC.
The only way this works is if the DNC quickly rubber stamps the process without even looking at it. How likely is that to happen in an election this tight and hard fought, especially in a state like Florida that has a history of election problems?
Moreover, even if the DNC wanted to say, "Whatever you want to do is fine," there are two legal problems. First, there are questions as to whether a mail in primary would be legal in the state of Florida. Resolving that question will take some time if someone sues, longer than 5 days, as I could see arguments both ways. That's the minor problem though. More important is the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that was brought up here yesterday.
(a) Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, as amended, 42 U.S.C. 1973c, prohibits the enforcement in any jurisdiction covered by Section 4(b) of the Act, 42 U.S.C. 1973b(b), of any voting qualification or prerequisite to voting, or standard, practice, or procedure with respect to voting different from that in force or effect on the date used to determine coverage, until either:(1) A declaratory judgment is obtained from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that such qualification, prerequisite, standard, practice, or procedure does not have the purpose and will not have the effect of denying or abridging the right to vote on account of race, color, or membership in a language minority group, or
(2) It has been submitted to the Attorney General and the Attorney General has interposed no objection within a 60-day period following submission.
Both Michigan and Florida have counties that fall under Section 4(b). If the plan isn't finalized until mid-April and then there's a 60-day period for the Attorney General to examine it - and there's no question that that's the quicker of the two procedures - then we won't have a result on the legality of this election until mid-June, which is after the deadline that the delegates need to be chosen.
Being a civil rights' lawyer, Obama is aware of this problem and has pointed out that people are going to sue; the Florida African American community is leery of changes and the state hasn't given them reasons to believe that this would be an exception.
This is a plan that's designed to fail. This late in the process, only a replacement primary is going to be legal. I still don't understand why they can't raise the money for that instead of saving a little bit and getting nothing. If I were in Clinton's camp, I'd be showing them the cash for a replacement primary right now as getting those votes are her best shot of having a chance.
Note: There was some question about whether section 5 applied to a primary. The drafters of this plan seem to think it does. Under the "Overview" section appears the comment, "The plan can be submitted to the Justice Department for approval under Section 5." So yes, this plan is intended to be submitted in April for Section 5 approval. How can it go forward without receiving it?|
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