MS Turnout Expected To Be "Light To Moderate"

This is strange.

A close race between Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama will draw more voters to the polls today than the last presidential primary, state officials predict.

But voter turnout is still expected to be light to moderate in an election that also includes two open congressional seats and a U.S. Senate contest.

Between 125,000 to 150,000 voters will cast ballots, Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann predicted. He said 100,000 headed to the polls in the 2004 presidential primary that featured eight contenders for the Democratic nomination, including ultimate nominee Sen. John Kerry. Mississippi has 1.78 million registered voters.

Sure, that represents a solid increase over the 2004 primary but look at how these estimates compare to 1988. According to CNN:

Another thing to keep an eye on is turnout. Jesse Jackson grabbed 45 percent of the vote in the Mississippi Democratic primary when he ran for the White House in 1988.

Al Gore, at the time a senator from Tennessee, came in second with 33 percent of the vote. More than 359,000 people voted in that year's Democratic primary.

And that was just on the Democratic side. The 125-150k projections are for overall turnout. Will be interesting to see how the actual turnout figures shake out.



Display:


Delegates (none / 0)

still expect this to be called as soon as polls close, but he may only net 1 delegate tonight, which wouldn't be great for him.


by zane on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:34:27 PM EST

Well, what do you know? (none / 0)

This really surprises me - I figured turnout would be as high as Wyoming's was (relatively speaking, of course).


by ejintx on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:37:12 PM EST

Todd! (2.00 / 2)

You are racist! You brought up Jesse Jackson winning against Al Gore in Mississippi! How dare you! Oooooo you make me so mad....

well... maybe not.  ;)


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:49:08 PM EST

Why is everyone relying on the projections? (2.00 / 0)

These turnout estimations are just projections, not observations from the ground today. There are some reports out there that suggests a higher turnout. For instance:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/dis cuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address =132x5021136

http://www.democraticunderground.com/dis cuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address =132x5020183

http://hatthief.blogspot.com/2008/03/des oto-county-runs-out-of-democratic.html

There are others, but that's all I felt like digging up. Some other reports indicate slower turnout out during the morning due to rain.


by DPW on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:50:45 PM EST

Complacence (2.00 / 1)

Maybe too many people think that Obama has Mississippi in the bag, so they are sitting it out. From both camps.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:51:22 PM EST

1988 (none / 0)

Other reasons for higher turnout in 1988 could be the following:  

 - some conservative Democrats in 1988 consider themselves Republicans today

 - some conservative Dems still vote Democratic at the local level but vote GOP at the federal level (and therefore don't feel the need to vote in the Democratic Presidential primary)

 - older "yellow dog" conservative Dems from 1988 aren't alive anymore


by alphaaqua on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:53:07 PM EST

Spring Break (none / 0)

is one factor, according to the SOS


by sgary on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:01:27 PM EST

Re: MS Turnout "Light To Moderate" (none / 0)

How bogus is this estimate?  With 80% of the precincts reporting (10:48 eastern), the top 3 vote-getters on each side have pulled in 434,174 votes!

How does the SOS miss the correct number by a factor of three?


by KentuckyRon on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:50:52 PM EST

Nope, no low turnout (none / 0)

With 80% reporting it's Obama 191K to Clinton 126K.  So crunching the numbers (I know that's hard for Clinton people) that's a low turnout of 317K.  


by Tunk on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:53:25 PM EST

364,000+ at 90% Reporting (none / 0)

With 10% of the precincts not yet counted, it's save to say that the turnout has crushed that of 1988.


Leftmost Bit
by Luigi Montanez on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 11:12:29 PM EST

More than 400,000 at last count... (none / 0)

With 99% reporting, the Mississippi turnout is just over 400,000 votes on the Democratic side. So the "light to moderate" prediction just went blooey, bigtime.


by KeithPickering on Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 12:39:09 AM EST


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