While I was doing my usual blog surfing to catch up on what I missed over night, I came across a blog entry by Ezra Klein about Eliot Spitzer that struck me as warning for all those would be reformers out there, including Barack Obama.
...what we're seeing here is not the fall -- if indeed he does fall -- of a high-flying governor. It's the final tumble of a crushed reformer. Spitzer, for reasons both structural and personal, has been utterly humbled by Albany. The new capitalism he promised, the age of transparency he spoke of, the national ambitions he harbored -- all have broken before the obstacles he faced in the governor's mansion. When you think of the hype he was getting only a couple years ago, that's a rather remarkable fact. I don't care about the prostitution. But the capacity of the system to stand against those who would reform it, and who come into office with a broad mandate to do so, is really quite sobering.
The issue, of course, is not the prostitution. Spitzer's popularity was built through a tough as nails persona from his years as Attorney General that made people think that he was capable of really taking the reigns of the establishment to make some meaningful change. He rode that popularity into Albany with a mandate for change (he had 69% of the vote), but it quickly became obvious that the legislature was not going to roll over and just rubber stamp every reform he made. To say that he has been a disappointment would be a great understatement, and it really makes one wonder if somewhere in his psyche he made the choice to visit a prostitute in some sort of attempt at political suicide - to stop the pain of what he has wrought.
Deval Patrick is another Governor elected with a mandate for change. In a four way race, he beat his nearest opponent by 20%, and he helped expand the Democratic hold that was already a super majority. We all know the involvement of David Axelrod in both the Patrick and Obama campaigns, and the overlapping of the basic themes of hope and personal empowerment. I am not going to dwell upon those. However, it is important to note that after quite a few missteps, Deval Patrick's popularity is at a low, and there are questions as to whether he will be able to bring the reforms in from his campaign. This is even with a supportive legislature. His success should have been a political slam dunk.
What does this mean for Barack Obama? Ultimately, it may mean nothing, but I think it is interesting to look at these two governor's as possible indicators of the problems Obama will face if he becomes President and tries to institute the change he is campaigning upon. He has inflamed his supporters to a point that he really walks a tightrope. What if he gets to Washington and cannot make significant change in four years? What will he campaign on in 2012? What if he gets to Washington and makes some rookie mistakes like Patrick, or, heaven forbid, completely falls on his own sword like Spitzer? It takes a lot more than the strength of your convictions to change Washington (or Albany or Boston), otherwise candidates would not campaign on it election cycle after election cycle.
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