It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged Delegates For Obama To Win

My college-age son and I talk pretty frequently, especially now that he's living across the country in NH. After the recent primaries in which Hillary had won TX, OH and RI, he expressed amazement on how I had called it, just as he had expressed similar astonishment after seeing Hillary win in NH. "Son," I said, "age and treachery will always overcome youth and strength."

"But, dad, he's got more delegates."

"Big deal. He can't get the magic number 2025, and no way will the Party elders take that leap off a cliff with him."

"But what about the will of the people? All the young voters?"

I then explained to him that like me, the Party Elders don't trust them, or anyone else who labels themselves as Progressives, to be there in the trenches when needed. As a dyed-in-the-wool liberal, I've been burned way too many times counting on my fellow Lefty to fight until the bitter end. Not to mention being amazed at the total reversal of earlier expressed opinions held throughout the Progressive-blogosphere for the longest time.

Funny, isn't it, how guys like Kos, Stoller and Bowers were bitching not too long ago about the disproportionate influence of Iowa and New Hampshire upon the nominating process, screaming how neither state was representative of the US of A like a CA or a FL. Go check the archives, and you'll see all three complimentary of Hillary's decision to keep her name on the ballot in both states, admiring the fact she was playing to win while criticizing both Edwards and Obama for capitulating to blackmail.

Now look at them. Screaming that seating MI and FL at the convention would be a travesty. How all those new voters would be disenfranchised if we did anything to jeopardize Obama's chances at the nomination.

Fuck them. Where were they when we were disenfranchised in 2000? In 2002? In 2003? In 2004? What did they think? That all it took were letters, phone calls and faxes to their Congressmen and Senators to get them to change their votes and do the right thing? Look at how the vote over FISA is going. You really think the Dems would be letting Bush get his way if they were that concerned what Lefties were going to do come November? Last I heard, Ned Lamont isn't in the Senate, either.

Let's go back to the 60's, shall we? Y'know, that decade all the young kids wish would go away and we got over. Obama was just a kid and, oh yeah, he was living overseas during that decade as it's pretty likely he'd have experienced even harder times with his family in this country. His parents wouldn't have even legally been able to get married in CA prior to 1967, and pretty much scorned by the American public in general elsewhere walking around in public. You think Civil Rights legislation was passed back then because it was all Rodney King "can't-we-get-along" peace and love? Hell, you should have been in Boston during the early 70's when the riots over busing when on. Who could forget the classic image on the front pages of the Boston Globe showing a white guy using the American flag as a spear-like weapon against a black guy.

We made progress during those years, but not without a lot of pain, blood and sacrifice. Very similar to other eras of progressive action. Like the Civil War. Or the Great Depression. Or a less extreme example, the Women's Suffrage Movement.

I look around and I see Bush appoint radical stealth conservatives like a Roberts and Alito to the bench, and all I see is bitching and moaning anonymously on the internet instead of organizing protests in Washington DC and shutting down business in our nation's capital, putting some real fear into the ruling elite. When the Supreme Court screwed over Gore on December 12, 2000, the Left should have been out in force the next day making it clear the American public wouldn't stand for this perversion of the electoral process. All they could muster was throwing some eggs at Bush's limo and screwing up his inaugural.

So I explained to my son how it's all going to play out.

We're WAY beyond any delegate count at this juncture. If Obama wants the Presidency, he's going to have to get down in the mud with Hillary. Either way, it's pointless, as she's a much better streetfighter than he'll ever dream of being. Michelle's the one with the balls in that family.

I told him Obama can throw anything he can think of - NAFTA, the Iraq vote, Vince Foster, the Rose Law firm, Monica, whatever - and it won't work. She has taken the worst anyone can throw her way over the past 16 years plus, unlike him. Hasn't been vetted? Where were these people back in the 90's? Bill and Hillary would have both been facing jail sentences had the Right-wing even the smallest scrap of evidence to nail them with.

Hillary, on the other hand, will kick ass and take names. Broken bottles, brass knuckles, switchblades, name your weapon. All's fair. She KNOWS the Right isn't going to give up the Presidency without a fight to the death. That's way too much power to give up. She also knows there's going to be too many Republicans in office to deal with whether she or Obama are elected. We may get a few more seats in both the House and Senate, but not enough to guarantee shutting down Republican obstructionism. No matter who gets elected.

Anyone who supports Obama because of his 2002 speech on Iraq has to do cartwheels to justify that position given his record of , y'know, like actually voting to fund the war, totally ignorant of the fact that most voters don't care of what went down in 2002 simply because they're looking for answers in 2008, and they'd rather go with a known commodity despite her position back then rather than gamble on someone who claimed to have known better then, and hasn't the record to show he can back his talk with action.

(By the way, NAFTA was first voted on in December of 1992, BEFORE Bill Clinton was sworn in. Laying that solely at his doorstep is dishonesty of the highest order. He had enough battles to fight from the get-go without going toe-to-toe over reversing his predecessor's actions. The best he could hope for was making lemonade from lemons by tailoring the bill in ways that didn't screw the American worker over as badly as the Bush version had.)

I pointed out to my son that neither Bill or Hillary would have survived the 90's if they weren't the streetfighters they are. The irony of it is that the Lefties who support Obama can't see how much like the Right they've become in smearing Hillary, and I'm talking mostly about the guys here.

As a white guy nearing the half-century mark, I can spot sexism a mile away. I grew up with it in all its forms. Stollers, Bowers, Kos and others can protest all they want, but the mere fact they have to do such contortions to justify their support for Obama knowing full well the positions they took previously before coming out for him is just a part of the story. It's one of the many reasons the women are just now coming out in droves for Hillary, especially the older ones.

Look what you get in the so-called MSM. Where's the female equivalent of an O'Reilly or an Olbermann? FOX? CNN? MSNBC? Nada. Likewise, NBC and ABC are just as bad. CBS is no better, despite bringing on Katie Couric. They set back the Women's Movement putting such a lightweight in that chair. And it's not much better on the internet, either. I can think of five websites run by prominent women - Salon, Huffington Post, Taylor Marsh, Firedoglake and Digby - but I can count much higher how many prominent websites are run by guys, all of whom can be shown tossing all previously-held beliefs to the wind rather than support a candidate that is actually much closer to their positions than they'd care to admit.

They further demonstrate their sexism writing about the historic nature of Obama's candidacy while ignoring the fact that Hillary's candidacy is equally historic, not to mention writing how the young and Black voters will be disenfranchised while leaving out the point that women will also feel disenfranchised if Hillary isn't the nominee.

And it's here where I lay down the deciding factors to my son. There are more women who vote Democratic than any other voting block. The longer Hillary's campaign keeps going on, the more unstoppable she'll be because of those women voters. Equally important will be the domestic economy. The worse it gets over the coming weeks the better I like Hillary's chances. OH proved that and PA will ratify it resoundingly. Until the youth vote becomes as reliable a voting block as the seniors and the GOP gives black voters a reason to support them - neither of which I see happening in the foreseeable future, women will be the deciding factor this time around. (Should anyone think I'm a closet racist, I point to John Conyers and Chuck Rangel as examples of Black Power that voting Democratic will provide versus the white plantation mentality on the opposite side of the aisle, not to mention that  Obama would more than likely never have his opportunity at the Presidency if he were a Republican.)

Most hardcore Democratic voters won't care come the general election who the nominee is as long as they feel they're backing a winner. Right now, Obama had no less than three solid chances to put Hillary away, and failed each time, giving off the stench of a loser in the process.

Bottom line: Living through the assassinations of JFK, MLK, and RFK, not to mention Kent State and Watergate, was disillusioning. Hillary showing Obama being too weak to deserve the nomination doesn't even rate. Her support will eventually be shown to be much deeper and broader than Obama's ever was when all is said and done.



Display:


Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (2.00 / 2)

Why was the vetted, experienced 'fighter' unable to maintain a popular vote or delegate lead? I guess if we as a party can cry about sexism and a fictitious 'MSM bias' after November, then we'll feel a little better about McCain's landslide victory.


by carbocation on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:03:22 AM EST

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (2.00 / 3)

If you want to resort to numbers, try this: Include Fl and MI, and leave out the Caucus states, most of which won't go Dem come November. The results: She blows him out of the water.

Also if you want to talk about numbers: Nobody was using the delegate count as a means of measuring progress towards the goal line until Obama lost the popular vote in Nevada, then left people scratching their heads wondering how he captured more delegates in a state she won.

Ask your most hardcore Dem voter how they feel about this, and they'll tell you something's wrong with a system where the winner isn't really the winner. That's why Hillary's wins are seen as more impressive. She's played against a stacked deck.


by SoCalHillMan on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:42:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

MI was a non-contest, FL was a beauty contest (2.00 / 0)

Thousands of people didn't vote in those states because they were not real contests.

Republicans out-polled Dems in MI and FL, whereas they got their butts kicked almost everywhere else:


Turnouts:
MI:
868,002  (R)
592,261 (D)

FL:
1,734,456 (D)
1,924,346 (R)


showing that many Dem voters didn't show up in FL and MI. It's therefore spurious to add the results from these non-contests to make any sort of claims.

In addition to leading by 150+ pledged delegates, Obama leads the popular vote by 600K votes in properly held contests thus far and another 60-120K vote edge in IA, NV, WA, ME, WY combined.

And, those are the results of the Clinton campaign after HRC was leading in national polls by 15-30% over most of 2007. Why should Democrats trust that she'd run any better campaign in the general election? Then there is mountains of Clinton baggage waiting in its wings to be unleashed by the Republican machine should we make the mistake of nomination her.

With her negative campaign, Clinton is dividing the Democratic party. OTOH, Obama's campaign already has and promises to further expand the party to historic levels.

If Obama wins the pledged delegate count and Clinton proceeds to steal the nomination from him, she will then have damaged and wrecked the party for  a very long time to come.


Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers
by NeuvoLiberal on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:10:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (none / 0)

Wow, you actually think that is an acurate representation of the vote?

Let's talk numbers though, I keep seeing that Hillary wins all of the "big" states, well lets look at those.

State . . . . . . . Obama . . . . . . . .Clinton
California . . .2,126,000 . . . . . . .2,553,000
Texas . . . . . 1,358,000 . . . . . . .1,459,000
New York. . . . . 698,000 . . . . . . .1,003,000
Illinois. . . . 1,302,000 . . . . . . . .662,000
Ohio  . . . . . . 982,000. . . . . . . 1,212,000
Georgia . . . . . 704,000 . . . . . . . .330,000
New Jersey. . . . 492,000 . . . . . . . .603,000
Virginia  . . . . 627,000 . . . . . . . .350,000
Washington  . . . 354,000 . . . . . . . .316,000

Total . . . . . 8,643,000 . . . . . . .8,487,000

Looks like he still wins.

Hillary's wins may seem more impressive to you but that is just because you have blinders on for her. Obama has won 19 contests by 20 or more points.  Hillary has won two, Arkansas and Oklahoma.  I wish we could count Michigan on her list too but she couldn't reach a 20 point lead unopposed.


by matchles on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:30:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (2.00 / 1)

Georgia is NOT going Democratic come November, which is why I didn't count it after much debate, which when taken out of the equation puts his total at less than hers. Washington and IL will vote for her come Nov regardless what happens in Denver.


by SoCalHillMan on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:29:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (none / 0)

Florida;  Name recognition.  It'd probably be closer if Obama had a chance to introduce himself to the voters.  He is, afterall, the best of our time at retail politics on the stump.   Ohio and Texas had similar margins for Hillary before Obama walked through.

Michigan:  You realize that Obama wasn't on the ballot, right?  She blew him out of the water there?  She was up against an ACTUAL blank slate, Uncommitted, and Dennis Kucinich.  You set the bar pretty low.


"Behold, I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves! Therefore, be as wise as a serpent, And as harmless as a dove."
by Setrak on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:43:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More (none / 0)

In MI the only "candidate" on the ballot that was advertising at all was "uncommitted".  Thanks to the advertising campaign courtesy of John Conyers encouraging people to vote uncommitted if their candidate of choice wasn't on the ballot, combined with Barack Obama and John Edwards supporters encouraging their people to vote for uncommitted on sites like this, it's amazing that Hillary Clinton actually did win - and I saw alot of comments on this site and kos that people were hoping she would lose to uncommitted - thereby embarassing her.  Plus, you had Kos encouraging some dems to vote for Romney in the republican primary, which I'm sure gave him a little boost, and depressed the # of dems voting.


by AnnC on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:09:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is your money quote: (2.00 / 2)

" Her support will eventually be shown to be much deeper and broader than Obama's ever was when all is said and done."
No matter what the numbers are right now, it feels like the political winds are blowing her way right now. I think she will have the upper hand by the convention to argue for the votes of the superdelegates.
by georgiapeach on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 09:07:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

when all is said and done... (none / 0)

well, i'm still waiting.  hillary has been promising great things from the beginning.  when she starts delivering on these great promises, maybe you'll have a point.  but let's face it, six months ago, hillary was polling in the mid-40s and today she's doing the same.  and that's among democrats!  she is universally known (quite unusual for a presidential candidate before they are nominated) and yet she can't put away a junior senator from illinois.  that demonstrates neither deep nor broad support.

barack, otoh, has grown from support in the 20s to the mid-40s.  that's momentum, BAAAAB-BY!


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:14:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (none / 0)

A spot on diary. Last week his highness Tom Brokaw said 50 superdelegates were going to pledge for Sen. Obama. Well, im still waiting. Last weeks primaries once again exposed Obama's electability problem. He cant get the Latino & Women's vote in sufficient numbers to win. Sen. Obama had the momentum, the money and some say the MSM behind him going into March 4th and he lost the popular vote in 3 states, OH & RI by wide margins.Here is an article by Tina Brown in Newsweek about Hillary's "Sleeping Giant" about to awoken.Click Here for Story


by Safe at Home on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:45:03 AM EST

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (none / 0)

That stupid electability argument is getting old. You can't extrapolate from primaries to the GE and you should know that. Only because people like Hillary does not mean that they have to hate Obama - although that seems to be true for some myDD posters.


by marcotom on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 06:28:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (none / 0)

After McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Dean, & Ned Lamont - YES, it is getting old.


by labanman on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 09:20:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (none / 0)

This year, considering what Hillary supporters are suggesting should occur one name shuold loom especially large-- Humphery, the last guy to get the nom at the convention against the will of the voters. So there you go labanman, my response, Obama could be all of what you accuse him of being, and Hillary could be the modern incarnation of the Happy Warrior, a word of warning though, Hubie's nomination wasn't well recieved.


by Socraticsilence on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:02:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Party Since Humphrey (none / 0)

You make an interesting observation. After Humphrey -- what I would call the "modern Democratic Party" -- the Party's nominee has always been the winner of the pledged delegates. (Superdelegates were invented in 1982, but by the 1972 cycle the smoke-filled rooms were cleared out.)

In 1984 and 1988, for example, superdelegates put the eventual party nominee over the top, but in both cases the winner had more pledged delegates going into the Convention.

I don't know why a few people think 2008 will be any different. Honestly I think the controversy is entirely manufactured, with a willing media playing along with the fiction for higher ratings.


by BBCWatcher on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:13:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words And Pledged (2.00 / 2)

In MI an all out campaign was mounted to get voters to vote uncommitted and she still won. In FL she still leads him now according to most national polls.

He is having a very hard time closing the deal. Even in most of the states that he won the late deciders broke for HRC.


"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."
by LadyEagle on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:08:10 AM EST

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words (2.00 / 3)

The media has a BIG role in our election process and Obama has benefited from the media's protection and promotion of him 24/7.


Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:31:25 AM EST

Re: It's Going To Take More Than Words (2.00 / 2)

I'm not pining my dreams on Hillary assassinating the character of America's first potential black president, I'm saying one doesn't get to the WH simply on words and dreams.

As for her tactics versus his, I'm at least honest about the faults and foibles and tactics of my candidate. It's why I support her. I'm not whining about the crap Obama pulls either. Obama supporters, OTOH, simply refuse to acknowledge the reality of their candidate, preferring the fiction of what he says to the reality of his actions.

Or maybe there's more vitriol because he keeps getting his ass handed to him by a girl.


by SoCalHillMan on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:38:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

May 20th Is the Magic Day (none / 0)

On May 20, 2008, it is extremely likely that Senator Obama will cross the threshold to have a majority of pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. (Upon receiving results from Kentucky.) After that point, the only way Senator Clinton can win the nomination is if superdelegates vote to override the popular will.

A superdelegate override is not gonna happen, folks. In fact, it's unthinkable.

Senator Clinton had every advantage going into the nomination battle, including a massively front-loaded Super Tuesday of record proportions which should have decimated any challenger, especially with Edwards still in the race splitting the opposition to her candidacy.

I disagree with Senator Obama. Senator Clinton did not run a "magnificent campaign." Certainly Mark Penn didn't. Political scientists and historians will study the campaign for a long time to come to understand why.

The fact is that the Obama campaign accomplished something special: they ran a superb campaign and beat the odds-on favorite well. I'm quite impressed.


by BBCWatcher on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 10:07:15 AM EST

Re: May 20th Is the Magic Day (none / 0)

WHAT Kool-Aid are you drinking? It's a mathematical certainty neither one will finish with 2025 delegates, so neither one arrives in Denver with a delegate lock on the nomination.

We saw this play out in THE WEST WING, and they showed very graphically how this works. Jimmy Smits character arrives at the convention with less delegates than the sitting VP. Horse trading goes on at the convention. It's only through the unseen intervention of the President and the changing votes of NY that open the flood gates to put Smits over the top. Notice also the arguments being throughout the convention which states matter most at a Dem convention - NY, CA, PA, CT, and NJ received major attention, TX was the only red state that was even mentioned in the same breath.

This is the same scenario both Hillary and Obama will be confronting when they get to Denver, not to mention battling over the rules in the first place. Look for Bill to really twist arms at that point.


by SoCalHillMan on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:51:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Stench of a Loser (none / 0)

Indeed.


by AHunch on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:21:10 AM EST

Re: It's Going To Take More Than (none / 0)

I then explained to him that like me, the Party Elders don't trust them, or anyone else who labels themselves as Progressives, to be there in the trenches when needed.

Are people like "Teddy" not considered "party elders"?

Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:24:01 AM EST


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