He played it the same way going into Wisconsin. Polling was similar in Wisconsin, too.

IIRC, Hillary only has Penn for polling while Obama has a plethora of pollsters.

I'd say his internal polling operations have probably been fairly accurate for him to date and he reacts accordingly.

"A big win for him on Tuesday will likely knock Clinton out of the race permanently. A loss, given the expectations, will likely keep Clinton in it for a while."

Depends on what you define as a loss.  Clinton winning just RI is a loss that forces her out of the race.  Nobody bought that spin yesterday.  I'm curious to see what happens if Obama narrowly wins TX and Clinton narrowly wins OH.  She'll have virtually no way to catch up in pledged delegates and Bill, Chelsea, several anonymous insiders/fundraisers have said she MUST have TX.

"Backfire" is relative at this point.  Some of the claims from the Clinton camp are beginning to border on the delusional (such as the idea that a failure to win all four states would signal some sort of rejection of Obama's candidacy).

I wonder if Obama is taking a little break simply to rest up for the rest of the campaign.  He seemed a little fatigued recently.

I don't think it matters all that much. It is almost impossible for Clinton to win the nomination anyway. I'm all for Obama putting all his chips on the line and trying to land a knock-out punch here. Worst case scenario is that Clinton drags this thing out until PA and Obama gets to do heavy campaigning in three more states while McCain continues to be pushed back to page two.

If Clinton wins Ohio and Rhode Island, and wins the primary and caucus in Texas, she won't drop out on March 5th. However, unless she wins by 20 points or more in all those states, she's not going to close the pledged delegate gap by very much. Party leaders and the voters are largely happy with either Obama or Clinton, so whoever leads in pledged delegates in the end will win the nomination.

The math isn't there for Clinton, so all we're arguing now is whether the race end on Wednesday or sometime in April.

This primary campaign has been all about lowering expectations for Clinton.  Let's go back about 3 months and take a look at where things stood at that point in time.  She had $100 million in the bank, and the MSM was kissing her ring.  Obama was just a novelty.  There wasn't any talk of 'firewalls,' there was only happy talk about how it would be all over after Super Tuesday.

Every day since then we have seen media coverage and blog posts which continue to desperately re-invent scenarios where Hillary might possibly pull out a win.  Put the shoe on the other foot, and imagine that Obama had done as poorly as she has thus far-- there would be an overwhelming outcry for him to exit the race for the 'good of the Party.'

IMHO, the only way she can win the nomination is to somehow win smashing upset victories by large margins in just about every state that remains.  No way is she going to take the prize by getting a lot of superdelegates to thwart the will of the voters and install her as the nominee.  The Party cannot afford to let that happen.

The "momentum is elusive" argument died on Feb. 12. He's had it since the Potomac Pounding. It may not be enough to help him end it on March 4, and then it will be gone. But the fact that he has had major momentum in this primary is indisputable.

Superdelegates will determine this based on their respective districts and communities... Man, it's where you live that matters... If I live in an Hispanic community, even if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates, the superdelegates will vote for their communities and districts. You can believe that...and is in effect voting for the people... (not the overall majority but the majority in their communities)...

of momentum as defined by your link is pretty silly

Of course, the pendulum swings both ways. If Obama wins Texas and Ohio - or wins Texas and comes very close in Ohio - I think he can lay claim to real momentum, something that's been elusive in this contest so far.

The linked to site seems to have "momentum" mixed up with "winning".

To meet the "momentum" threshhold prescribed here is to win the race.  

Your linked to site's definition of momentum is:

disagree. To me, the term momentum has a very specific definition. A candidate can only be considered to have momentum if they either a) rack up a series of wins that puts them over the 2000-odd delegate threshold or b) win so conclusively without getting 2000-odd delegates that the other candidates in the race drop out.

That's the end of the race, that's not "momentum".

It's silly to say otherwise.

As to the expectations game, Obama simply cannot lay claim to the underdog anymore.  I'm surprised that he's been able to keep the race talked about as "close" as long he has.  He's got a month full of victories.  He's passed Clinton in delegates.  He's zoomed passed her in total votes.  He's rapidly eliminating her Superdelegate lead.

If that isn't "momentum" - then we are witness a redefining of the term.

None of this to write a Clinton elegy - this race may or may not be over, from a practical standpoint, on Tuesday.  No - it absolutely won't be over from a technical standpoint.

We're reaching the point where the downside for Obama is that this race will tighten; that his 100+ delegate lead will disappear.  That now seems absurdly unlikely, if not impossible.   The downside looks increasingly like he holds serve.

If he truly does want to wrap this up, he needs to start setting the stage.   Kudos to his team for realizing that they don't have to play this game.

The memos coming out of Baghdad Wolfson's HQ about Obama needing to win X are silly.   We are not fools - we've heard the pronouncements of the team all month.... Just wait till Ohio... just wait till Texas...  We heard Bill Clinton himself call both states must win.

There's no need for Plouffe, Axelrod, and Obama himself to even deal with expectations.  

The Clinton campaign has done it for them by setting the "must" (win TX and OH) against the end of the race (Clinton losing both).

If they split?

I think we're all smart enough to know where that lies on the scale.

The Clinton camp is constantly going on and on about expectations. And I must remember at least 3 or 4 times where I have seen this EXACt same article on MyDD warning the Obama campaign that they are setting expectations too high. You know what? With the exception of NH, it hasn't hurt them in the slightest.

But you know what, a win is a win. Yes, in NH Clinton beat expectations by so much that it certainly gave her a boost. And if she wins in Ohio by 12 and Texas by 6, then she will get a similar boost. But on the margin, for most people a win is a win. And I think there is a good argument that steady confidence leading up to a primary (not the overconfidence the Obama campaign had going into NH) is actually beneficial for a campaign, because all else being equal undecideds want to be on the winning side. They want to know that they made a different. We really need to stop fetishizing the expectations game and realize it is not the holy grail of politics some make it out to be, but just one of many factors.

The expectations meme is becoming less relevant than the reality meme for Obama.  If Obama comes out of Tuesday with more pledged delegates once again (regardless of media expectations), then the "Clinton hasn't won a single day of this campaign" argument moves front and center, especially for the automatic delegates.

Sigh...Jerome you need to understand that hillary won't win, the math just doesn't work out.

Weird how the expectations has changed...A couple weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was the Hillary needed to win by huge margins in TX and OH. Now it is that she just needs to win. However, no one's under any illusions that that'll help her much with delegates.

So, really, it seems that Tuesday is a decision between Obama ending it now, vs. the path towards a brokered convention.

Obama isn't gambling at all re expectation. This is purely Clinton spin to prepare the way for what she will do anyway after the voting on Tuesday. The followup won't be based on the expectations game at all but rather pre-determined strategy whatever the results.

The boTtom line will be the results, not the spin. The results after New Hampshire and all the spinning had almost no effect on the rest of the campaign.

If Obama wins Texas and Ohio it's over. If she wins both, it's a fight to the finish, with the big winner being McCain. If he wins Texas and loses Ohio only narrowly, the Clinton folks will dismiss Bill's "must win both" statement and argue that they've stopped Obama's momentum. Even as the pros behind the scenes will urge her to drop out and the superdelegates will continue to slowly eke away.

This is what will happen and all the gaming will mean very little.

MP

Personally, I'm not sure that Obama needs to respond to it because it's patently ridiculous.  I think the media basically laughed at it as it reported it.

Clinton is way behind in delegates, yet if he doesn't sweep the board it's "troubling" for him?  If Obama comes out of Tuesday with more net delegates, the media will basically be calling the race all but over for Clinton.  Pressure from party leaders will probably be unbearable, and there would be no (positive) reason for her to press on.

Exactly, "all the gaming will mean very little" There are only three possible scenarios and no amount of spinning by Obama will change them.

Clinton loses both OH and TX= Clinton out.

Clinton wins one and loses one = she will try to spin it for a week, then lose Wyoming and Miss. by big margins again and have to get out on March 12th.

Clinton wins both TX and OH = convention chaos.

Two of the most overwrought ideas in this whole campaign are expectations and momentum.  Just because the Clinton or Obama camps say something about expectations or momemtum, doesn't make it so.  Media narratives about these two ghosts have been meaningless.  The only thing that matters is results and there is no evidence that voters are or have been swayed by any of this hooey.  

Results mean pledged delegates and superdelegates.  It will not be narrow popular vote victories in Texas and/or Ohio or an effective delegate draw that knocks HRC out of the race in the two week hiatus after 3/4, it will be the continued erosion in her superdelegate lead, now under 50.  This is almost half of the HRC superdelegate lead less than three weeks ago.  

Superdelegates have been speaking loud and clear the last three weeks.  Has anyone been listening?

if HRC wins 2 of the 4 states she stays. She has the money- her supporters are giving the money to stay in the race. BHO still has not won a big state other than IL.

BHO also would not have the delegates as HRC if this continues and both would need superdelegates to win this nomination.

Then there is the question of Michigan and Florida?

This isn't about expectations anymore. If she wins Ohio and Texas, she can go on to Pennsylvania. If she loses either, she'll see the writing on the wall and drop out shortly thereafter.

The problem with trying to game expectations the way Clinton's campaign is doing - the media by now can see right through it. The narrative is already set for Texas and Ohio.

I'm a Hillary supporter and I can't stand the arrogance and thuggery of you Obamas.  You're ticking me off.

First, get it thru your vapid heads there is NO. ACTUAL. ACCURATE. COUNT. OF. DELEGATES.

NONE.

Pledged OR Unpledged.

There IS NO "math".

1.  Nevada still HAS no actual count, they never finished their delegate selection process.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/ nation/la-na-nevada24feb24,1,1161510.sto ry?track=rss

2.  Florida and Michigan are SCREAMING for the DNC Credentials committee to find some way, any way  to get their delegates counted, and there are several ways this could end up going Clinton's way.

The SuperDelegate picture, the REASON the freaking SuperDelegate tie-breaking system was put in in the first place, is completely skewed and out of focus.  NO ONE KNOWS how that will turn out.

But there has been one HUGE three-week effort by the Obamas and the MSM to stop counting votes and call it for Obama right now.

The MSM Village Elders are tired, their feet hurt, the Andrea Mitchells and David Broders and Brooksie and Maureen Dowd are tired of driving the sharp knives into Clinton's back again and again and again.  Die, die DIEEE!  My lovely.

The Obamas want to hold hands and get past this to some REAL Hopin', and they're scared to death the demon Hillary they have kept burying since New Hampshire will rise once again with fire shooting out her eyes and claw their hopes to shreds.

And Hillary just keeps a-comin' back at them.  I have grown to admire and feel s deep respect and affection for her warrior's spirit, her tireless, unflagging devotion to her cause.

I think she will be elected President just because, like every great competitor, every great champion, she has just plain refused to lose.

I'm about to give more to Hillary...

"Her warrior spirit"??? The Terminator had a warrior spirit too - but he created a lot of havoc on his way out.

Hillary isn't going anywhere...  I don't care if she loses by 2 or by 20 points... I don't care if all her fundraising dries up.. I don't care if all the superdelegates get together and pledge their votes against her... She's in this thing until November arguing in front of the Supreme Court that she deserves the nomination.

The entire Penn/Wolfson strategy is that, given enough time, everyone will turn around and realize that they made a huge mistake and beg her to be nominated.  So, you keep staying in even when all seems lost.  It's a great strategy for Penn and Wolson, they get to keep raking in the dough!  For the party, though, not so much...

This pattern doesn't work well for Hillary. Her campaign lowers the expectations so that she does better than expected, and gets positive media. Meanwhile, Obama finishes the day with more delegates once again. A couple of days later, the reality that Hillary is even further behind in delegates begins to sink in.

Maybe it's just getting late, but I'm having a hard time taking the concept that Obama is making a risky move by not trying to convince everyone he's going to lose, putting it through a mental common-sense filter and getting anything remotely coherent out of it.

I keep getting the phrase "Rhode Island: The New Firewall" combined with the image of the Jack Nicholson in his Joker makeup giggling maniacally.

I believe that the Clinton supporters need to chill out and accept defeat, if for no other reason, then the good of the party. McCain obviously believes Obama will be the Demorcratic nominee and has already launched attacks against Obama. Obama needs to be able to focus his atttention on McCain and not be side-tracked by a Clinton campaign that continually moves its "firewall." What really gets me are the Clinton supporters who say they will vote for McCain if Clinton does not get the nomination. That logic completely escapes me. Nothing like shooting themselves in the foot and setting up four more years of Bush politics.