Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:26:43 PM EST

According to CNN, Barack Obama is projected to have won the Nebraska caucuses. The results look like this:

Obama 17,074 state delegates (69 percent)
Clinton 7,622 state delegates (31 percent)

73 percent of precincts reporting

That makes it eight of nine caucuses that Obama has won, with Nevada going to Hillary Clinton.

Update [2008-2-9 21:26:43 by Jerome Armstrong]: The preliminary delegate outlook for Nebraska looks like it will break down as the following: 

           Obama        Clinton

CD 01-     3            3
CD 02-     4            2
CD 03-     2            2
At-Large-  5            3

Total      14           10
The Obama spreadsheet projected a 15-9 gain in delegates, but again, this is preliminary [take this with a grain of salt till we know the final results].

Update [2008-2-9 22:2:50 by Jerome Armstrong]: And with 99% of the results in, the math changes, and Obama surpassed his delegate projections in Nebraska, gaining 16 delegates to Clinton's 8. A solid victory here by Obama.




Tags: Nebraska Caucuses (all tags)

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Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Barack Obama wins Washington state, and it ain't even close.


by howardpark on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:39:33 PM EST

Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

Me, I like the caucuses. I like the fact that you can't drag any random voter to the polls, but that as a Democrat, you've got to commit two hours of your life to be counted...


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:39:56 PM EST

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

great. maybe we can get the national elections in november to be decided by caucus. then we'll know what a great predictor this sytem this is. i'm fine with a dem victory in november--in fact i want one desperately.

but this is what i keep seeing in my dreams.

a line of names

humphrey-mcgovern-mondale-dukakis-gore-k erry-obama

and in my dream i'm being kidnapped by democratic party officials that are all wearing buttons with the aforementioned names on it, and they are speaking confidently about electability,  while i'm being thrown into a trunk of a limousine car with "liberal" emblazoned on its license plates.

needless to say, everybody in the car is happy but me.


by thetis on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:52:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama the liberal?? (none / 0)

Why are people like Ben Nelson endorsing him?


Clinton Democrats care about the same things I do, most importantly beating John McCain.
by TrueBlueCT on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:00:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

I really think you need to leave McG off of your list there, friend. He is a party reformer and a true progressive hero...


by danIA on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

i love mcgovern too--i'm just looking for commonality in our nominees who could not win. i do not mean to be making fun of any of them--including obama. each of them gets tarred as a limo lib in the ge. i dont think hillary does. maybe no dem wins in '84. but our record on finding 'electability' is weak. i happen to think hillary is more electable. few thought clinton (william) was going to win in '92. perot had something to do with that. but in retrospect everyone agrees thaat w. clinton was an amazing politican. they did not want to see it then. we want to see obama as amazing now. i'm skeptical precisely b/c he has been so favored by the caucus system and his red state "beauty contest" wins. if obama were winning the powerhouse states that dems have to win in nov., all of this would be moot. but he is not.

and what does it say that merely by putting mcgovern's name (who got creamed in the ge) in this list, you think he's being made fun of? by that, i dont mean what does it say about you (or me), but what does it say about the list of dem nominees?  

my intutition is that obama continues the line. hillary does not.


by thetis on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

Seems like you're just throwing in everyone who lost, with no other criteria. Was every one of those campaigns about electability? Was Bill Clinton some sort of bizarre blip where everyone stopped thinking the same way for one election, only to revert to form (with his Vice President no less)? And Jimmy Carter, another great mold-breaking choice that worked out so well for Democrats? Humphrey was chosen by the insider machines so that is definitely a false inclusion on any other grounds but losing.


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:05:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

Carter had Watergate to help him. Bill is an argument for Hillary. Hillary has beaten the attack machine before, won over repub voters in NY, and is probably more liberal than Bill. I bet as president she is more liberal than Obama--though there is no way to prove that of course.

In the end, we all have to vote for who we think is better and hope for the best in the GE.

I don't see Obama winning, myself. I agree with those who say that he will be easy for the Republicans to brand as a limo liberal with no international experience. Having once lived in Indonesia will not impress the GE voters. His "I was against the war" (but did not have to vote on it) schtick is perfect for the wine-track dems and first time voters but not the GE voter. That's why I see him continuing our line of noble failures--unless the Repubs implode, which is possible, but not as likely as most of want to think. W/o Watergate and Ross Perot they've won every pres. election since LBJ and MLK reorganized two parties with the Civil and Voting Rights Acts in 1964/5.

That's a going on fifty year pattern that won't suffer "Change" easily--even if attempted by a charismatic pol who once did some community service work after attending Harvard law. The very profile of a limo lib.


by thetis on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

Laughable.


by rasputin on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:06:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

I actually feel differently. There are many people who work in service and retail jobs who don't have the luxury on a Saturday to spend two hours caucusing.

I have no illusions about how many Republican gun nuts have Saturdays free to attend a Democratic caucus.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

Republican gun nuts?  Obama is just as anti-RKBA as Clinton, why would they show up for him?


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton voters lack fortitude? (none / 0)

You tell me. He's the one causing Republicans to change affiliation in order to vote and caucus for him.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:51:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Ho hum.


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:41:53 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

There are enough Democrats in Nebraska to have 24,000 state delegates? Impressive.

Something is wrong with our process when you can guess the winner of a state only by knowing whether it was a caucus state or a primary state.


by OrangeFur on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:43:58 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Something wrong with process our something dysfunctional about a certain top-down campaign?


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:58:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Do you have to be deliberately antagonistic?


by OrangeFur on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:45:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Missouri? And places with lots of blacks, though I'm guessing they would be disqualified. Perhaps we could also then disqualify states where a lot of white women vote.


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:07:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Hi everybody, I know the results tonite are not encouraging for Hillary supporters but there are some silver linings out there. Looking at Nebraska, there are 24 delegates tied to today's caucus. Congressional District 1 has 6, CD 2 has 6, and CD 3 has 4 to be apportioned. The final 8 pledged delegates are apportioned by the total percentage of delegates the candidates receive to the state convention.

If we look at the results so far (based on the link provided above), Hillary and Obama would be splitting the delegates in CD1 and CD3 (3 to 3, and 2 to 2), since Obama is not reaching the 2/3 necessary for him to split them 4 to 2. In CD2, since he is getting 76.8% he would get 4 out of 6 delegates. Thus, for the 16 delegates tied to congressional districts, Hillary would be getting 7 delegates, and Obama 9.

In terms of the last 8 pledged delegates, if the percentages hold up, Obama would be getting 5 and Hillary 3. So the total would be Hillary 10, Obama 14- That is not bad at all.

I am no expert and I hope I am calculating all this right. Anyone with more expertise on the matter out there?

for those who want to check up on this: I am getting the info from http://www.nebraskademocrats.org/content /1391/2008-Presidential-Caucus-Results


by figoretto on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:17:18 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Hey, thats what I saw too. Thanks for confirming my math. So the Clinton campaign beat the Obama projected numbers.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:32:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

No, he should get 5 out of 6 delegates in the 2nd district. He got over 75% of the votes, which gives him 5 delegates.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:33:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

The math shows he'd need 83% to get 5.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (2.00 / 1)

No, that's not right. The rules say he needs 75%.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:48:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Ok, so let me get this right-- the rules stating that the delegates will be apportioned in terms of the percentage of caucus delegates within a congressional district imply that the numbers would be rounded up? Ie 75% of 6 = 4.5 which is rounded up to 5? If that is the case, then it's my bad!


by figoretto on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:54:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

That's correct.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:07:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

"The math shows..."

Is that Karl Rove math, Jerome?  

75% is a 5-1 split in Democratic proportion math.  


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

How in the world do you win 70-30% just about in every district and only get 4 more delegates?


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:28:37 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

If Obama took over 60% in CD-01, then he should get a 4-2 split, best as I can tell. Anyone know what the percentage there is?


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

He's got 58.8 in that district with votes still being counted.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:32:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Also, 65% of the vote in CD-03 should yield a 3-1 split there too. Either CD-02 is way more Obama friendly than the other two, or those projections are wrong.


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Yes district 2 is very favorable to Obama and had the most voters by far. I wonder why they didn't give it more delegates.

http://www.nebraskademocrats.org/content /1391/2008-Presidential-Caucus-Results


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:35:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

That is an awesome link, I had no idea the disparities were that huge. 58.8% would be just on the edge but should still be an Obama 4-2 split in CD-01, I think.


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:40:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Yeah that's what a poster told me below. The person said 58.33% would be enough. There's still a lot of votes to count, so we'll see.

It's unfortunate how the districts are split up with delegates. He got an extraordinary victory, but because the 2nd district which had all the turnout gets the same as the others it doesn't mean too much.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:45:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Happily, it turns out that his delegate percentage matches his voter percentage pretty well. That's seemed to be the case in other states too, it usually comes out right.


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:53:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

It is now Obama 65%/34%: with 99% of the votes in the 1st CD (according to CNN) so that will split 4-2 for Obama.

CD 2 is Obama 77%/23% that will split 4-2 for Obama

CD 3 is Obama 52%/48% - that will split 2-2

--
The 3 PLEO will split 2-1 Obama

The 5 At-large will split 3-2 Obama

The pledged delegates out of Neb will be 15 Obama - 9 Clinton

This will be added by superdelegates, plus the 1 add on that these delegates will select - this will all work to Obama's advantage


by lifelongdem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:53:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

actually sorry, CD 2 will split 5-1 for Obama (not 4-2)

Pledged delegates out of Nebraska will be 16-8 Obama


by lifelongdem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

That's right.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:01:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

FleetAdmiralJ had CD1 with Obama at 78%, which would be a 5-1 split.

Dunno if those results have held over time - this was at 73% reporting. Anything over 58.33% gets a 4-2 break, anything over 75% gets a 5-1 break.


by scvmws on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Hmm.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:47:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Seems screwy to me too. 70% of the vote ought to get you more than 58% of the delegates. The whole system is nuts.


by OrangeFur on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:31:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

CNN has the delegate projection at 15-7 (with two outstanding?).


by Ramo on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:34:09 PM EST

Frustrating (none / 0)

This is one of those nights I could slap someone at the Clinton campaign. If you look at the county by county breakdown, all they needed to do was get 40 or 50 more people to show up these places, and whe would have won more caucuses.  Mark Penn should be fired for not understanding that winning a caucus is not freaking rocket science. If they had just had a handful of mor field ops getting people out to the caucuses, they could have ended up with more delegates than Obama in Washington state. Even Nebraska, with a little more effort.


by nascardem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:34:38 PM EST

I'm not a Clinton supporter (none / 0)

but you are right about Mark Penn.

They should have canned him after Iowa.


by moreaxe on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And get him off tv (none / 0)

Every time he shows up on television, I swear he loses her votes. Fire him after Iowa? They should have fired him after NH - from what I hear, other than the communications shop, the national campaign staff was too busy hiding to be of any use in NH. That is probably why she had her comeback.  And Nevada? Again, if they had put just a little more effort in outside of Clark County, she would have gotten more delegates.


by nascardem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:24:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

I get Obama up 5-1 in District 2 and Obama up 4-2 in District 1 by the current results. Both razor-slim divides, especially in District 1. Totals would be
districtOH
142
251
322
at large53
total168

Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:35:15 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

How much does he need to get 4 delegates in the 1st district?


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

He needs 58 1/3 % to get four delegates out of six.    It's at 58.8% now.  But almost 40% of caucuses still aren't reporting.


Read Brian's Utah Weblog
by Brian Watkins on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:41:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

Thanks, it's amazing how so few people could decide these delegates.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

With 99% of CD-01 precincts reporting, Obama's up 65-34. That should definitely be worth a 4-2 delegate split.


by Mullibok on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:52:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pretty darn accurate (none / 0)

spreadsheet there.  Wonder how far into the future its accuracy continues...


by NvDem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:41:07 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

16-8 would seem to be about right.


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:41:24 PM EST

CNN has delegates at 15-7 right now (none / 0)

I assume that leaves 2 to be awarded...


by moreaxe on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:48:49 PM EST

Re: Barack Obama Wins Nebraska Caucuses (none / 0)

CNN has delegate split at 15-7 right now.  Is that incorrect?


by jbsloan on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:01:34 PM EST

Per the note.... Nevada... (none / 0)

It is true that Hillary won the caucus, but she got fewer delegates out of it. Frankly with "victories" like that, she'll lose the nomination for sure.

9 to 1 as far as caucuses go, indeed.


by Tatarize on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 12:20:26 AM EST


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