Weekend Election Prediction Thread

by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:48:08 PM EST

Yea, yea Feb 5th is ancient history; besides, I've been right more often than not this cycle and in this business, you can get higher than half and you are golden;) Anyone who dares, pick your choices over who will win the caucuses and primary over the weekend.

There's not much in the way of polls to go off of either. What you could go off of is the actual spreadsheet projections from the Obama camp:

             Obama (delegates)       Clinton (delegates)

Louisiana    54% (31)                 44% (25)
Nebraska     60% (15)                 40% (9)
Virgin Isl.  60% (2)                  40% (1)
Washington   60% (49)                 40% (29)
Maine        49% (10)                 51% (14)

Delegate total:   107                      78
I'll go with a 3-2 margin: Clinton winning Washington St by a sliver and Maine by a stronger majority, and Obama winning Nebraska fairly easily and Louisiana too, but there Clinton picks up a higher proportion of delegates than her percentage of vote. Virgin Islands, Obama wins there handily. And the overall delegate lead for the weekend within 10 either way.

I would also like to nominate Washington State for having the most screwed up system I've seen so far (what an embarrassment for you evergreeners):

Turnout is likely to be high at the Washington caucuses this weekend. State Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz has said he expects last cycle's turnout of about 100,000 people to be dwarfed. The turnout may be as high as 200,000. However, there is considerable confusion about the process, and the state party admits to being "overwhelmed" by calls from Democratic voters seeking guidance. Washington, in an arrangement that even local political leaders find bizarre, has both a caucus on Feb. 9 and a primary on Feb. 19, meaning that voters are currently staring at mail-in primary ballots at the same time as they're trying to figure out their caucus locations. Even more confusing, Democrats use only the caucuses to apportion delegates, making the primary effectively meaningless for them...
Can you believe that one? You get a ballot in the mail that is meaningless, at the same time you have to go to a caucus to cast your vote! And believe it or not, Democrats run the entire state and have for years now.

Update [2008-2-9 15:48:8 by Jerome Armstrong]: As a few commenters pointed out, the topline numbers of the most recent Wa State poll, which show Clinton pulling closer, to a 45-50 margin in favor of Obama, are not the caucus numbers, which show a high double-digit lead. So I'll reverse that prediction, and favor Obama in WA, for a 3-1 margin of the states over the weekend. Still, I bet it's much closer than the 60-40 margin that the Obama memo suggests.

So this is gonna be a good day for Obama; the over/under number for expectations is a 30 delegates margin for Obama.

Also, looking ahead to Virginia, I'll pretty much bet that NLS is right on the money with a prediction of a Obama 49, Clinton 34, in delegates.

And back to Washington State for a moment. What if Obama wins the caucus, but Clinton wins the primary? Would Obama really deserve having the delegate lead, while not leading in the popular vote?




Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 151 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

why would you think clinton would win washington state ?

Unless you have been out drinking , I don't know how anyone can make that type of prediction.

Survey usa has her losing by a 2-1 margin and you predict she would win.

I hope you are right , but I know you are not.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:25:47 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

2 to 1?

No... not that bad.

http://www.pollster.com/08-WA-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (2.00 / 1)

Clinton's closed the gap pretty hard and fast, its now  50-45 with 6 percent undecided, and I think she's gonna take it due to a extremely high turnout.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtPopup.aspx?g=4f7f4146-bce7-43fc-9ca8-a d7bd6f68a86&q=45617


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:34:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I had not seen that (none / 0)

So she has picked up undecideds and Obama lost a few.

The attention from yesterday and today may sway people one way or the other.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:36:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had not seen that (2.00 / 1)

There last poll had Obama winning among women too, that's not going to happen.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had not seen that (none / 0)

Jerome, are you still predicting that Clinton will get this nomination?

I think Obama will win Washington.  The time for the Clinton comeback will have to be March 3rd, in my opinion.  They have to find a way to bring Obama's numbers down, not so much try to increase Clinton's.  The Obama bubble has to be burst before it's too late.  Let there be no mistake, it's a bubble.

How do I know it's just a bubble?  Because if Obama were to collapse in the polls and lose a ton of primaries in a row the media would be out there with articles explaining what happened: "the bubble had to burst, it was too much too soon."  I can already see the headlines as clear as if it was in front of me.


by diplomatic on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:57:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had not seen that (none / 0)

Yes. I also have Clinton winning Hawaii and Wisconsin this month.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:11:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had not seen that (none / 0)

I honestly don't see Wisconsin.  Obama takes Madison and Milwaukee.  Of course, I've been wrong before.


by rfahey22 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:48:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hawaii (none / 0)

The Asian and Pacific Islander vote will win the state for her.  And if Clinton wins Washington State and Maine and holds her deficit down on the 12th, the post February calendar favors her.

North Carolina doens't have the percentage of the black vote that South carolina has plus HRC will get most of the Edwards supporters.  And Indiana could be interesting also.


by mikelow1885 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:36:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hawaii (none / 0)

This is the state of Obama's birth. They love the native son here, I have been driving around with an Obama 08 sticker on my car since January 07, I have not seen a Clinton sticker yet, and I have been talking up Obama among the Asian American community I reside in since well before Obama even got into the race.
Clinton doesn't have a chance here.
"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had not seen that (none / 0)

Having come from the mid west(MN) I would be surprised if she took Wisconsin.

If you are basing it on ARG, THAT WOULD BE VERY SHAKY.

The momentum Obama will have coming out of the Chesapeake primaries will leave her in the dust when WI comes up.


by BDM on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:10:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had not seen that (none / 0)

Is anyone advertising in Hawaii? I know some have claimed Obama would have "native son" advantages, but I don't think he's lived there since he was a child. I don't think I've seen a poll of Hawaii either.

I agree about Wisconsin. All the polls I've seen there favor Clinton, though the independent vote could keep it tight.


by godemsin08 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hawaii? (none / 0)

I'm pretty surprised about Hawaii, he grew up there.


by del on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:01:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

if you look into those numbers she is being pummelled 2 to 1 by those that are caucusing.

her supporters are not caucusing.

so are you making the case that survey usa is wrong about the turnout for clinton.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:41:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

WHAT? (none / 0)

Lori... are you crazy? MANY are caucusing! Trust me her supporters will be out in force!


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:43:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WHAT? (none / 0)

i am just saying that in that poll , he has a likely to caucus model sorta like iowa and clinton's numbers drops like crazy.

although he says take the numbers with caution.

i have already made the case that if she can get her supporters out she can keep it close but she's not going to win.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:47:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WHAT? (none / 0)

there is a big GOTV going on. We will see what happens.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:49:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WHAT? (none / 0)

Well, we saw what happened. It looks like there was a distinct advantage to those who GOTV. But, it wasn't Hill.


by Solen on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 03:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Caucuses... caucuses... LV polls like these always over-predict turnout.

Obama drew 18000 at a rally in Seattle this evening. Clinton drew 5000 in Tacoma on Thursday. (link)

Plus, Obama has had a much larger operation here for much longer. (link)


The truth about McCain
by nstrauss on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:51:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

BTW:  Obama's rally turnouts don't translate into votes.  This was proven on Super Tuesday.

In addition, Obama scheduled his rally in Key Arena, rather than at the Pier, and Hillary had to turn people away, while Obama didn't.

Rallies are meaningless.


by Sensible on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:05:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

he turned thousands away....

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 02/08/somewhat-super-saturday/


by cwreno2001 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Didn't Hillary say (none / 0)

in the NYT article that the reason why Obama wins these caucuses that Obama fans don't work...LOL!

I think it is weird that the Obama internals are much different than the SUSA poll.  I wonder if the SUSA poll is more like a primary model rather than a caucus model?


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:55:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

LMAO (none / 0)

So obama supporters are more affluent, but apparently the money just grows on trees in their backyard!


by highgrade on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LMAO (none / 0)

I'm a white, middle-class female voter supporting Obama. I don't vote my race or my gender. I voted for the person I felt would be the strongest candidate in November and best able to secure a progressive agenda. I know my money doesn't grow on trees. I donate to Obama every payday based on what I can afford at the time. So far, that's about $1000 over a long period of time.


by godemsin08 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Closed the gap?  The gap in the last survey listed on Pollstter (October) was a 20 point lead for Clinton.  So she has not just closed it, but allowed it to flip the other way.  This doesn't look like momentum in the right direction.


by jbsloan on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:32:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (2.00 / 1)

Withdraw my own comment.  I see that Survey USA did two one day surveys and that Clinton showed a 3 point bump.  


by jbsloan on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:35:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Caucus polls have underestimated the likelihood to caucus of Obama supporters.  We have seen it in the following states:

Iowa:  
Final Polls (RCP Average): Obama 30.8 Clinton 29.2
Results:  Obama 38 % Clinton 30%

Colorado:
Final Polls: Obama 34 Clinton 32
Results:  Obama 67 Clinton 32

Minnesota:
Final Polls: Obama 40 Clinton 33
Results:  Obama 67 Clinton 32


by jbsloan on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:11:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's why I think the SUSA poll (none / 0)

is more of a primary model than a caucus model.

If there was a primary, it may be closer between Obama and HRC similar to the SUSA poll split of 5% or less but in the caucus model it may not be as close.


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:47:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lori among the Hillary (none / 0)

supporters is the only one making dense here. As she said it's likely going to be close but there is no way Hillary going to win Washington state. Obama been organizing the State for a year and they know how to get their supporters out. Jerome, you will be wrong again and you can count on that.

Survey USA is showing Obama winning 2 to 1 in the caucus model. I think Hillary might make it closer but the notion she  will win is a fantasy. And you know it


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:20:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The last two polls (none / 0)

in Minn and Colo were taken before SC and did not reflect the bounce Obama got.


by fladem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

WA is a nightmare for Clinton in terms of demographics and it's very anti-war, and those people are breaking heavily for Obama there.  She also didn't advertise there until very recently.  If she wins WA, it will be a larger shock that New Hampshire.


by tom32182 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:33:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Did all the hardworking... (none / 0)

...Hillary supporters just get fired or something?

NY Times...

But Mrs. Clinton, who has not done as well in the caucus states as Mr. Obama has, winning only two of nine so far, suggested that she did not expect to win in Washington, as many of her supporters would be too busy working to break away from their schedules and spend the time to caucus for her.

"If this were a primary, where everybody could vote all day, I'd feel pretty good about it," she said. "But it's not. It's a caucus."

Caucuses are mainly party building exercises. Why is Hillary undermining them all over the country? A Hillary presidency  is not going to be good for the Democratic Party.


by JoeCoaster on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:16:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Did all the hardworking... (none / 0)

I know, I know, it's so horrible to point out that working people and single moms have a harder time making it to a caucus!  What a terrible undermining of democracy to point that out.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The caucus is on a Saturday. (none / 0)

It is on a Saturday at 1pm.  You can go in, register your preference, then leave.  It isn't that hard and takes no time.  If someone works on Saturday it isn't that much of a burden and as far as single parents go it is no more difficult than going on any other errands that you have to take your kids with you because you can't find someone to care for them.


by msstaley on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:52:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The caucus is on a Saturday. (none / 0)

A weekend definitely makes it better, but there's no question that a system where you can vote all day long is going to be more democratic and more inclusive than a system where you have to be there at a specific time or your vote doesn't count.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:09:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Primary v caucus (none / 0)

Voting by party is inherently less inclusive and democratic.  If we want to be more democratic and inclusive then get rid of primaries and just have a general election with instant runoff voting.


by msstaley on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:52:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The caucus is on a Saturday. (2.00 / 0)

Three things, some people work weekends!

If I understand it correctly many states it takes longer to caucus than just register your vote. That sounds more like a primary. I think all states conduct their individual caucuses differently.

If these caucus are such great party building events why is it that mostly red states have them. That would seem like the  party isn't so strong there and they aren't building the party so much.


by del on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:22:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Caucus (none / 0)

Yes some people work on weekends and it is possible to stop by a caucus on a lunch hour and register a vote.

In WA a voter can stop by their caucus sign up their preference and leave.  They do not have to stay.

I didn't claim it was a great party building event, however, since you brought it up.  Caucuses are great party building events, at least as opposed to a primary.  Party officials can interact with people at a caucus, who are probably more interested in the election.  Even a handful of new Democratic volunteers garnered from a caucus can transform a local party.  I don't know the breakdown between caucus/primary red state/blue state but I do know that Democrats are more interested in every citizen being involved in our government and primary elections increase participation of voters.  However, should a party allow anyone who wants to choose their nominee?  If so, lets have a national primary and let independents and Republicans vote in the Democratic primary.  That means that in a year where there is a clear Republican nominee Republicans would cross over to vote for either the weakest Democratic candidate or the most Republican Democrat, in 2004 our nominee might have been Joe.


by msstaley on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 05:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Those are among registered (none / 0)

votes.  According to SUSA, among those likely caucus goers:
"Obama has a 2:1 advantage over Clinton, 63% to 33%. Those numbers show up in the crosstab for question #2. The numbers should be interpreted with caution. "

They are very clearly hedging - since there hasn't been a caucus before, but you are not reading the right number for the caucus today.


by fladem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:32:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

She is losing because Obama is the only Democrat left in the race. Hillary, after Bill, is still trying to convince us that going right, becoming more Republican, is the way Democrats should go.

This is the old DLC line: get away from FDR and Kennedy-Johnson, and go with the tide, the Reagan tide.

Are these right wing Democrats nuts?


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:24:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Um...which candidate brought up the Reagan legacy in a positive light again?  Which candidate refused to take a picture with the mayor of San Francisco because he had ordered gay marriage?  Which candidate has bought into the right wing theory that social security needs to be fixed ASAP?

I don't just get this whole Obama is so much more liberal and progressive than Clinton.


by drpd02 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:55:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree. Neither exactly is a (none / 0)

paragon of Progressive Liberalism.  Neither is pushing for a single payer health system.  They aren't addressing poverty as a keystone of their campaigns.  Both have generally liberal voting records but don't seem to be pushing a strong progressive agenda.  


by msstaley on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:56:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree. Neither exactly is a (none / 0)

We have to take what we can get as the Republicans leave the field of action and Democrats move in.

Obama has the most liberal voting record in the Senate. He is left of Hillary by a long shot, whereas Hillary, on matters of domestic policy is no longer a social Democrat. She is a Corporatist like Bill Clinton, and her medical care plan is a boon to corporations involved in medical care. On foreign policy, forget it. She is to the right of Bush, probably to the right of McCain, and so far away from Obama that it is necessary to view the contrast through party affiliation. Hillary is a right wing Republican, a hater of international law, a hater of the United Nations, in step with John Bolton, antiArab and antiMuslim in her leanings, a conduit for Israeli generated antiPalestinian propaganda, and totally quiet about Bush's Road Map, which proposes an independent Palestinian state. When Bush surprising stated that the military occupation of the Palestinians must stop, where was Hillary. Since this is not what the right wing Israel Lobby wishes, quiet as a mouse.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Dear Sherglad,

Have you read Obama's speech to AIPAC (on his website) from last March? He does not promise to take the troops out of Iraq and bring them home. He promises to redeploy them throughout the region, while keeping as many as needed in Iraq. As I read the speech, he implies that he is ready to attack Iran soon should events warrant. He is not the anti-war candidate. He is just running as one to attract the gullible. He was against the war before, as President, he has to escalate it. Seriously, read that speech.


by thetis on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:46:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

It is truly pathetic when a serious candidate for the presidency of the United States, the only superpower left in the world, must pay his respects and say the magic words, else his candidacy will be in jeopardy.

I have read that speech.

But I am also impressed that the Israeli right wing, AIPAC, the right wing Likudnik organizations in America, and the Israel Lobby at large, do not trust Obama. That is credentials enough for me as I am seeing the left wing American and Israeli peace activist organizations, the Palestinians, and other American groups interested in peace in the Middle East are tending to support him over Hillary.

So what you are contending is not incorrect. Still, I will go with the distrust of Obama, that as president, he will do the right thing.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Thanks for the reply, ShergaLd. I did not know that they do not trust Obama. I admit I'm skeptical. I think all three candidates at this point are in their pocket.I don't think you can "pretend" with that crew. Can you you point me to evidence of their distrust? My sense is that US foreign policy likely will not be that different under either candidate. Obama did used to call Lieberman his mentor. True? Or clever positioning? I can't say. I wish his healtchare plan were more aggressive. I wish he'd win a key democratic state besides Illinois. I think the liberal voting record is misleading. Lieberman used to be near the top of those lists too. Certainly, it is something that can be used against him in the GE. I'd be more ok with that if I believed it. I very much like his invocation for change campaign meme but I find myself increasingly skeptical. It disturbs me how much "faith" his supporters have. I'd rather see a realpolitik justification of his candidacy. Not-Hillary is not good enough. That's Mccain's line. I think the republicand will either eat him for lunch in the fall or tear him apart his first term. I have decided Hillary is more likely to make smart (passed through Congress) domestic decisions right away. But I will vote for the dem either way, of course.


by thetis on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:41:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

And I thank you as well for your response.

"Not-Hillary is not good enough. That's Mccain's line." It is also the line of the "left wing," that group of Democrats who tend to hang around the blogosphere, who are, to say the least, "not-Hillary."

One has to appreciate that a Hillary presidency will merely take up where the Clinton presidency left off, and as you know, it was a total appeasement of Reagan right wing politics, because the country had moved right. Who took it there? Obviously, it was Reagan. What we need now is a president that will bring the Democratic party back to its roots.

Obama is the only candidate likely to play that role. Hillary does not inspire; she merely asserts that being female, her presidency would break through a gender barrier. Not that I am against a female president. It is just that she is not the right female. I can think of many other female politicians, who would be preferable. Hillary is yoked to Bill and is likely to deliver more of the same triangulation, the stealing of Republican positions Bill did, and calling them Democratic.

Democrats have to stop allowing Republicans to determine who they are.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

let me try to explain about WA state (none / 0)

We have been haggling about how to do the primaries here for some time. The parties wanted closed primaries but the "independants" in the state cried foul. They tried the closed primary and it pissed people off. It went to court, the parties lost and on and on and on...

The state chose to set this primary. Both parties chose differently. The repugs trying to spit in the eye of the Democrats (because they are in power right now) said they would do a 51/49 split between the primary and caucuses (they are also caucusing tomorrow. The democrats said no, we are taking it from just the caucus. I do not even remember WHY the state is still keeping the Democrats on the primary ballot.

So, it is not just the Democrats, it is the citizens. We The People who helped fuck it up.

But... I am still going to vote for John Edwards in the primary, even tho it does not count.  :)

We argue about transit for soooo long that by the time we say OK, it is almost to late to make a dent and the cost are so high bevcause we waited so friggin long. Then the repugs and righties say... see, told ya! Just build more roads that is all we need. Stop wasting our money!

We have a lot of ron paulites here in WA.  ugh.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:27:55 AM EST

Re: let me try to explain about WA state (none / 0)

Do you think she stands a chance in your state like Jerome says


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:29:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

hmmm (none / 0)

honestly, I am not sure.

A lot of Edwards people switched to Obama but I also know a lot of people that like Hillary. Caucuses are tough. People are swayed. The Obama kids will be out in force and their "energy" may sway people or may turn people off.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

According to Survey USA Obama is winning in Washington State...

It's

Obama 50%
Clinton 45%

It's a caucus, an open one at that, so you know what that means?

It's over. Obama will win it.

Maine is Hillary's only shot at a win this weekend.


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:31:20 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

that poll is better for Hillary. Shows an up for her and down for Obama.

Plus, if it is close, then it is all about those pesky delegates again.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:37:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

This Obama supporter thinks that its bad for Hillary.

Because the poll is misleading, and sets the narrative that its close, and lowers expectations for Obama. If you look in the crosstabs, she loses 63-33 among those who will caucus.

Its not close at all, and I have no idea why SurveyUSA didn't just display that result out in the open - perhaps they just weren't sure and wanted to hedge their bets because of WA's bizarre primary/caucus structure.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:47:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

It doesn't get any better for Hillary...

She's losing the Beltway primary as well.

She's down in Virginia and Maryland by nearly twenty and down in DC by like 50. Really 50.

My prediction: Obama pulls ahead of her in the overall popular vote after this weekend and takes a commanding lead after the Beltway primary.

There is some good news for Hillary...

She leads in Wisconsin by 9%.

Hillary 50%
Obama 41%

But it was an ARG poll and they have a pro-Hillary bias.


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:35:57 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (2.00 / 1)

Just dont get overconfident Obamania.  Just look at the little last minute upset Clinton was able to pull in NH.  


by Toddwell on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:37:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

It's just a matter of time before last minute tears don't work anymore.  The caucuses here in Wa. open in 5 hours - I'm still waiting for the latest episode.


by ruskin on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:12:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

DONT JINX US (none / 0)

The tears are very powerful and abundant!


by highgrade on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No Tears (none / 0)

Good grief, look at the tape--no tears, her voice broke in NH.


by del on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:05:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Sorry for posting again (you really should have an edit feature):

Obama could win the next eight contests quite handily. That would bring the tally to:

Obama: 24 contests won.
Clinton: 11* contests won.

13 if you include MI and FL.


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:39:01 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

delegates.....


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:46:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Just as I always told Republicans, real estate doesn't vote.  It doesn't matter how many states you win, it's how many PEOPLE (which translates to delegates) you win.


by Sensible on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Obamania,

and who has attracted more voters?!  Just asking. And dont start telling me about which cast votes dont count b/c I already heard all about that that in florida 2000 and ohio 04. Who has received more votes? Hillary or Obama?  


by thetis on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:51:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Most votes (none / 0)

Clinton 7,475,046, Obama 7,826,345 without Fl & Mich

Including Fl and Mich (and they were votes just no delegates).  
Clinton 8,919,876, Obama 8,633,148.

 And that is putting all the undecided from Mich in Obama's column which of course some would split off for Clinton since not all the Edwards voters are going to Obama.


by del on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:12:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Here are my predictions

Louisiana:
Obama 51%
Clinton 49%

Nebraska:
Obama 63%
Clinton 37%

Virgin Islands
Obama 58%
Clinton 42%

Washington:
Obama 53%
Clinton 47%

Maine:
Obama 50.2%
Clinton 49.8%

Just gut feelings, nothing more.


by ArkansasLib on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:40:14 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

He'll win by more in Louisiana. But other than that I agree with you Arkansas Lib.

Given that after this upcoming Tuesday:

Obama will have won twice as many states as Hillary, be ahead of her in the overall popular vote and have won more designated delegates --- AFTER 35 primaries/caucuses --- will you Clinton supporters begin to concede that Obama is actually winning at the end of the third quarter (using a football analogy)?

Also, do any of you reasonably expect that the majority of super-delegates will support Hillary if she loses the majority of states, the popular vote, and the delegate allocations?

If Hillary loses EITHER Ohio and Texas she is done. She literally has to win both JUST to stay alive.


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:46:15 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

delegates....


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:47:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

He is winning in delegates that have cast their vote.  Just because he is behind in the Super Delegate polling, when only a 35 % sample of super delegates have been polled doesn't put him behind.  

In delegates....
Obama is winning.


by jbsloan on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:43:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

The problem with Clinton supporters is that, unfortunately, they live in the past.

They accept that adage: because something was one way once, it must be that way now.

Hillary led at one point...but she doesn't anymore.

Meanwhile, Obama's campaign is looking forward. So while a Clinton support will say to themselves that they are still winning because they currently lead in "super-delegates", they fail to point out - or even recognize - that barely one-third of "super-delegates" have made their preferences known. Also, those "super-delegates" can change their minds whenever they want.

I have the forsight to see past this month (any good strategist should be able to see ahead, not backward) and see that given the favorable Obama states coming up, he'll lead in:

1) delegates allocated (he already leads here);

2) popular vote (currently she leads by a very small fraction - less than half of one percent - but DC alone, where Obama is likely to win 80% to 20% or thereabouts, will make up that difference. His other victories will put him over the edge).

3) States won. By the end of voting, it's likely he will have won 30-35 primaries/caucuses. This isn't about geography,

4) Money. Hillary had a couple of good days in fundraising, but I suspect that she won't be able to sustain it. She was unable to outraise Obama even during her best period.

5) He polls better than her against John McCain and has done so consistently.

6) He has won the independent vote IN EVERY PRIMARY AGAINST HER, save Massachusettes.

Do you honestly think that given those facts above, that the majority of "super-delegates" will honestly continue to support her?

That's just plain silly.


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:28:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

One final thing:

The Clinton campaign should stop trying to convince people that they are winning and actually try to win.

From my vantage point, the only message out of the Clinton campaign is: "I'm winning, therefore I will win. Now get in line and support me." Hers is a campaign of bullying.

What happens when she is clearly no longer winning, as is the case here?


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope (none / 0)

If anyone is telling you they know the true delegate count, then they are dreaming. The delegates do not get counted by Obama or Hillary.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:55:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

before you start riding into the sunset ,She will win Maine on sunday you can count on that.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:50:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

To keep the football analogy going, no.  Because Obama is kicking field goals and Hillary is throwing touchdowns.

                  Obama              Hillary
Idaho- field goal    3
Alaska- extra pt     1
Illinois- TD         7
California- TD                           7
New York- TD                             7
Utah- FG             3
New Jersey- TD                           7

see where this is going?

By the way, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are touchdowns.  Good luck with South Dakota and Hawaii.


by dhonig on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:15:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

If you look at delegate awards from February 5th, and we say higher than say 20 point difference is a touchdown, then...

California - Clinton touchdown.
Illinois - Obama touchdown.
Georgia - Obama touchdown.
Minnesota - Obama touchdown.
New York - Clinton touchdown.

This one is close, let's throw it in too:
Arkansas - Clinton touchdown.

You know, I really don't want to go through this whole thing and try to follow this sports metaphor.  I think you are exaggerating it a bit.


by Tantris on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:50:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

equating minnesota with california...... umm?


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:37:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Difference in delegate pickup between Obama and HRC:
Illinois - 49
California - 44
New York - 42
Georgia - 33
Minnesota - 24
Arkansas - 19
Colorado - 19
Massachusetts - 19

I went by the best estimates I could find, they may change a little bit.  Illinois was the best delegate pickup, with California and New York slightly behind.  Then Georgia and Minnesota.  Arkansas, Colorado and Massachusetts all following with 19.

So, where should we put the division?  For Clinton, I believe the best would be at 40 delegates, putting HRC at 2 and Obama at 1.  If we put it at anything above 24 but less than or equal to 33, it is tied.  If we put it at 20, Obama wins by 3-2 in big delegate pickups.  If we put it at 19, we get 4-4.  I don't think touchdowns are winning big stakes, they are winning lots of delegates.  Regardless, this whole discussion is stupid.  We can compare it anyway you want.  You can say that only New York and California matter, and so HRC wins, 2 contests to 0!  Weee, lots of fun.


by Tantris on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:24:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

once again (none / 0)

it is not the Democrats that did it to WA, it is We The People that did it to ourselves.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:46:55 AM EST

Obama's spread sheet? (none / 0)

Considering that Obama has a knack for working with worse case scenarios, and considering that he often tries to down play any advantage he might have, I am going to go out on a limb and claim that those were conservative estimates on his part.
My perdictions:

Wash
O 62
H 38

Neb
O 75
H 25

Vir Island
O 85
H 15

LA
O 58
H 42

Maine
O 55
H 45

My predictions so far have been pretty close, but I will admit that these predictions are based on nothing more than what I have read around the web.


"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:51:18 AM EST

Those would be (none / 0)

the numbers I would predict.

Obama won 69% of the vote in the caucuses on the 5th, and in places where you would not think he would have an advantage.  Also, in the South (exception Tennessee) Obama has by more than 10 (SC, GA, Ala).


by fladem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:36:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Haha, I love that Obama speadsheet that was leaked. Their arrogance is astounding.

The caucuses have made it very difficult for Hillary supporters, but I have a feeling that she will do much better than all of the polls and pundits are predicting. They try to keep her down and write her off over and over, and each time the voters have shown that it is time to break the glass ceiling in the White House and that Democrats don't want great speeches with no plans, but rather a person with 35 years of experience who will be ready to bring change from day one.

Here are my predictions for the upcoming Primaries:

Washington
Obama 47
Clinton 53

Nebraska
Obama 55
Clinton 45

Virgin Islands
Obama 60
Clinton 40

Louisiana
Obama 48
Clinton 42

Maine
Obama 41
Clinton 59


"For 15 years I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger." ~Hillary Clinton
by EightMoreYears on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:37:33 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I think I will set my expectations here, so that if Clinton does better than this she is succeeding and if Obama does better, he is.


by Tantris on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:53:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Tantris,

Will you Clinton people please stop with the spin and playing "expectation" games?

This is about cold-hard delegates. This is about cold-hard vote tallies.

Plain. And. Simple.


by obamania on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:37:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Umm, I kinda meant that as a joke.  I believe that is the best Clinton can hope for.  There is no way she is going to win more than Washington and Maine.  I think the percentages there are actually very optimistic for Clinton.  I am an Obama supporter, and am getting sick of the expectations game.  I look at Talkleft, Openleft and MyDD to see the other side of the story.  Especially Talkleft and MyDD.  Openleft seems less so now.  But, Talkleft played Super Tuesday as over for Obama because he didn't win California and some people had said he was competitive there.  No more than a week or two before that, there was talk that he would only win a couple states.  I find the whole thing silly.  It is obvious Obama is playing for the long game and working the delegates.  Clinton is playing the "we defeated him and he should drop out".

I had heard at some point that the Obama campaign actually corrected the estimates for delegates from Nevada in the news.  I find that telling, if their campaign is claiming a certain level of expertise with delegate layout and math.  It seems to tell me that they are playing a deep game and looking to peel off delegates even in Clinton states.  It seems like Clinton is just trying to power through...

When I realized this, it actually made me respect him and his campaign even more.


by Tantris on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

What is even amusing is that I read it wrong.  He corrected his post down below.  He has Clinton winning Louisiana, Maine and Washington.  So, someone is believing that even though Obama is favored, Clinton is going to win 3 contests this weekend.


by Tantris on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:51:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Arrogance?  It was an internal prediction.  All campaigns make them.  A leaked Clinton spreadsheet wouldn't "betray arrogance," either.  You're seeing what you want to see.


by rfahey22 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:56:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Leaked?  Perhaps intentionally.  It accomplished what was intended, set off the superdelegate debate.


by Piuma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Sorry, just to correct a typo:

Louisiana

Obama 48
Clinton 52


"For 15 years I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger." ~Hillary Clinton
by EightMoreYears on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:40:08 AM EST

Re: go to sleep (none / 0)

Seriously you think Clinton will win Louisiana. The hangover last night is still on, go to bed.

If Clinton win Louisiana. I will stop posting at MYDD.COM for a month.


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:27:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

My picks for what its worth (nothing, absolutely nothing):

LA:  Obama 35, HRC 21
NB:  Obama 15, HRC 9
WA:  Obama 49, HRC 29
VI:  Obama 2, HRC 1
ME:  HRC 13, Obama 11

Leaving us with Obama 112, HRC 73 (Obama +41).  

Leaving aside FL and MI, Obama will have a triple digit delegate lead by Wisconsin/Hawaii.  He's at, what, roughly +21 now?


by ChrisR on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:04:43 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

My Prediction:

            Obama (delegates)       Clinton (delegates)

Louisiana    58% (32)                 42% (24)
Nebraska     70% (17)                 30% (7)
Virgin Isl.  55% (2)                  45% (1)
Washington   68% (53)                 32% (25)
Maine        52% (12)                 48% (12)

Delegate total:   116                      69

This adds the caucus bump to the predicitons of the Obama team.


by jbsloan on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:29:04 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

We have finished Phase 1 (preliminaries) and Phase 2 (Super Tuesday).  There is no doubt that Obama is heading for a string of wins in Round 3 (remainder of February).

His supporters shouldn't get too confident though.  Look for Hillary to win Round 4 (March, led by victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island) and Round 5 (April and beyond, led by victories in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico.)


by markjay on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:37:19 AM EST

Re: Interesting Numbers on that Vaunted Youth Vote (none / 0)

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/


"I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." Harry S Truman
by Tennessean on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:47:41 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Jerome has a tendency to comically over-inflate HRC's chances (see Feb 5) predictions. I think that Obama will win everything (including Maine narrowly, that is a contrarian state afterall) and come away with a delegate advantage of 50 for the weekend.


by wasder on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:55:22 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Since this is a "Weekend Election Prediction Thread" we should factor in the Weekend Effect. Hillary's only caucus win came in the only caucus actually held on a weekend, Nevada. Her type of voter has more time on their hands on the weekend than a weeknight.

I won't make predictions but this should help Hillary maintain in the delegate race.


by ineedalife on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:55:42 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

This is a good point. i don't think many of the predictions are factoring that in.


by poserM on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:42:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

There will be snow in Maine, 3-7 inches or so, on Sunday, the day of the caucuses.


by mainelib on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:08:01 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Having grown up in Maine, I can't see that little stopping much of anyone from going to the polls, but good info.


by frankies on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:44:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (2.00 / 1)

agreed. Whatever effect that has, it'll be marginal at most. if it does affect the results, (again, likely it won't) it'll probably help Obama for because the Hillary supporters tend to be older and so (guessing) more likely to stay home when it snows.


by poserM on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:45:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

LA

Obama 65%
Hillary 30%

NE

Obama 68%
Hillary 30%

WA

Obama 56%
Hillary 40%

VI

Obama 60%
Hillary 38%

ME

Obama 52%
Hillary 46%

VA

Obama 58%
Hillary 38%

MD

Obama 68%
Hillary 30%

DC

Obama 88%
Hillary 10%


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:14:28 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

For all who are tempted to predict the Washington State vote based on turnout at candidate rallies, a warning -- Dean attracted crowds of 20-30,000 here and elsewhere in the Northwest in 2004. But Kerry won the caucus. Washington isn't really the wildly "latte" liberal state the DC crowd imagines. (Even our most liberal politicians are in fact extremely centrist -- the state has only become a dependably "blue" state in recent years because the Christian Right's domination of the  Republican party in the 1990s caused it to implode.) In addition to upscale, educated tech workers (who live and vote in mostly the same, limited geographic area), we have a lot of small business, working class, military and union voters, and rural voters. The two largest minority communities in the state, by far, are Hispanics and Asians. Groups that so far have supported Clinton over Obama by 2-3 to 1. And, of course, Washington is unusually friendly to women candidates; both senators and the governor are women.

The candidate who ends up winning will likely be determined by who has the better organization and who the majority of voters see as the more traditional, establishment candidate -- the safer bet. At this point, I wouldn't be willing to place a bet on who that will be.


by esmense on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:27:04 AM EST

When was the Washington caucus last year? (none / 0)

I could have sworn that Kerry had the Democratic nomination all sewn up by Super Tuesday in 2004 and the Washington state caucus was AFTER that so that could explain why Kerry won that caucus since he already had the nomination.


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:03:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

This is a great point about the make-up of Washington and why she my be closing the gap.

Remember...she carried tech workers in California on Tuesday - so for some reason, the tech sector goes with Hillary rather than Obama - even though people perceive him to be the tech candidate.

I think she wins ME on Sunday

I think she keeps it close in Washington (enough to split the delegates pretty evenly)

I think she does have some bad losses in NE and LA - but let's hope like AL, a bad los is still a pretty close split in delegates.

I'm not so sure that she won't actually win in Virgin Islands...but I haven't seen a poll and I don't think one visit by Obama gives him the edge...but it is just one delegate...but we can see one delegate might be the difference in this race.

It is nice to have two strong candidates though. A new poll out today has them virtually tied in the national race (Obama 1% lead) but 84% of his supporters and 84% of her supporters say they are happy with either candidate. I keep making this point on several blogs that electability is not the issue people keep saying it is...the 84% number for both shows that's true - the base of the party is united and Hillary does better among independents than people also think. In fact, I've heard of several stories of women who switched their party to vote for Hillary and/or will vote for her in the general. She has a good block of support there (we do make up more than 50% of the population LOL).


by lb on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:29:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I think the tech sector is permanently tuned in to episodes of "I Love the 90s."


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:53:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Remember...she carried tech workers in California on Tuesday - so for some reason, the tech sector goes with Hillary rather than Obama - even though people perceive him to be the tech candidate.

I'm not sure where you got the idea that Clinton carried the tech workers vote.  I don't remember being asked if I was a tech worker at my polling place


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the facts (none / 0)

Obama won CA-14 by 53% to 47%.  CA-14 includes most of what is typically considered Silicon Valley.


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the facts (none / 0)

Indeed Santa Clara county, CA 14, is otherwise know as Silicon Valley.  The problem is most tech workers cannot afford to live in Santa Clara County and are widely spread out through Northern California.  Most unmarried tech workers actually call San Francisco their home.  Single people with disposable income typically find the "big" city flavor of San Francisco more to their liking, despite the fact that by population San Jose is a larger city. I have three members of my own family who are tech workers and none live in CA 14 despite all working there.  

Making the assumptions that a county with a population of over 2 million residents is mostly populated with tech workers or that most tech workers actually live in the county they work in is.... well, you know the old saying about making assumptions. Santa Clara county includes some of the most expensive Real Estate in the nation and Saratoga, Los Altos, Los Gatos and Palo Alto are the bedroom communities where high tech financiers  and moguls live.  It is conceivable and probable that Clinton won the Larry Ellison, Larry Page and Sergey Brin vote, but I would not exactly call that the tech workers vote.


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 03:15:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama has three offices in WA, Clinton (none / 0)

has none.

That tells ya something.


by CarolinaNumber23 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:35:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Why is Senator Clinton sounding more and more like Senator Obama?

Campaigning in LA before 2/5(http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 02/02/clinton-unveils-new-stump-speech/)
"Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton debuted an almost entirely new stump speech at a raucous rally with 5,000 people in Los Angeles on Saturday morning, meanwhile, replacing her old, policy-heavy remarks with a new overarching message - "the America I see" . . . Speaking in the broad thematic strokes that more voters (and reporters) expect from Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton invoked Robert F. Kennedy . . . "

And campaigning in Washington state yesterday(http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 02/08/somewhat-super-saturday/):
"today, yet again, she (Senator Clinton) borrowed an Obama line when talking about her health care plan.

"My opponent is saying no we can't," she told the nurses crowd. "Well, I say, yes we can.""


by poserM on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:29:36 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Bill's old strategy.  Sound like your opponent (most notably Dole in his case) so as to confuse the voters about the differences between the candidates, in hopes that they'll choose you for some intangible value.


by rfahey22 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:41:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It isn't really the same...LOL! (none / 0)

HRC really SHINES at debates but her stump speeches are not even close to as good as Obama's.  

It isn't so much about the language but the deliverance.  


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:06:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: my friend (none / 0)

who doesn't follow politics too much scream out: Did she steal the Obama line. I was so surprised to see that. I said, yeaaa she did.

This is a pattern, she tries to still the change mantra, she tries to still fired up, now she's stealing yes we can

She has no originality. Please, help Hill-stealer.


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:34:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

how can you send a ballot out and it not count if you send it in? Bizarre.


by rikyrah on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:31:33 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I'm really interested in the LA exits.
I really have no idea where the momentum is. I thought I did.

Louisiana    52% (30)                 46% (26)
Nebraska     54% (12)                 46% (12)
Virgin Isl.  70% (2)                  30% (1)
Washington   51% (39)                 49% (39)
Maine        48% (10)                 52% (14)


by Judeling on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 09:51:24 AM EST

I don't know about the percentages (none / 0)

But I think Obama will win all five of these contests handily.

And wow, a meaningless primary ballot coming in the mail just before you are supposed to take time out of your weekend to go to a caucus? Really, really stupid.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:00:20 AM EST

I think HRC will win Maine tomorrow (none / 0)

but I think Obama will win all 3 states today.


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:04:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rose-colored glasses. (none / 0)

Let's look at your Feb 5 predictions:

Here's my best-guess. I think so many of the states are so close, that its tough to make a 'winner' but here goes:

States

Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MA, MO, TN, AZ, CT, AL, AR, OK, NM, DE, UT, AK

Obama: IL, GA, MN, CO, KS, ID, ND

I go with Clinton winning 15 and Obama winning 7 states. Where Obama could change the narrative, is with a win in California; that would make it a battle all the way to the convention.

Wishing for a Clinton victory in WA state won't make it happen.  Just like it didn't work in AK, AL, UT, CT, or MO (tho that one was close).

Those most recent SUSA numbers give me some pause, so it may be closer than the conventional wisdom, but he should still win.  You are letting your cheer-leading affect your rationality.  Admit it.


The real John McCain.
by Tim Hendricks on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:32:12 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Nebraska, Obama: 65 Clinton: 35
Washington, Obama: 62 Hillary: 38
Louisiana, Obama: 59 Hilary: 41
Virgin Islands, Obama: 65 Hillary: 35
Maine, Obama: 55 Hillary: 45

Spokane events in Washington
Michelle Obama: 1700
Hillary Clinton: 700

I think that about says it all.


by Progressive America on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:32:47 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Predictions: I've been to South Carolina and Georgia volunteering for the Obama campaign. In both cases, we won by a margin of more than 25%. I know how the campaign run the score up on election day. Trust me it won't be close in Louisiana. Here you go;

Louisiana

Obama    62%

Clinton  36%

Edwards/others 2%

Nebraska

Obama    61%

Clinton  39%

Washington

Obama   60%

Clinton 40%

Jerome can spin however he wants he can't change reality.


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:42:32 AM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I'll give him 50% in LA.  I grew up there and there are lots of white catholic democrats and they will go for Clinton.


by Iceblinkjm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:45:57 AM EST

I read that Lousianians (none / 0)

were kind of upset that Hillary didn't even show up in their state.  Instead she sent Bill.  

African-Americans love Bill but HRC should have been there if she really wanted to win the state.

To be honest, it looks bad if the candidate doesn't even show up.


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 10:58:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Hate to burst your bubble Puma but it's not always about the AA vote. They are only 30% of the population and that is pre Katrina population totals. New Orleans alone has half the population that it did pre Katrina.


by Iceblinkjm on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:06:51 AM EST

It was ALL Lousianians (none / 0)

who were upset that the HRC campaign sent Bill but there was no HRC.

That says a lot to the state when the candidate doesn't show up.

If she wants to win the state she needs to campaign there.

Hillary was ALL OVER California and she won the state.


by puma on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:23:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Funny how Obamas rejoice about caucuses.  Yes, he wins at caucuses where the voters tend to be able-bodied, younger, with lots of time on their hands.

In primaries, which don't exclude the frail, the people who work on a particular day, the people with families, with busy lives and huge responsibilities (you know, CORE Democrats), Hillary wins.

In the end, I think Obama will win the whole thing and his "constituency" will be people who don't really have a "dog" in the progressive fight.  (For instance, his constituency isn't realistic about what's necessary to enact true affordable health care -- mandates.)

And our country will continue to sink down the tubes.  And the so-called "progressives" at sites like DailyKos will continue to bitch about their candidates not working fo them -- while I laugh my ass off.


by Sensible on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:30:44 AM EST

Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Alabama, and Utah (none / 0)

all had primaries.  In MN people could vote absentee.


by CarolinaNumber23 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:32:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: to add (none / 0)

Louisiana will be a primary too. Le's see how well she does


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:28:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Yeah,I pretty much agree with this one too. I think the Obama candidates are the "romantics" and the Hillary candidates are the "pragmatists".


by Dari on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:49:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I live in Portland just across the Columbia river from Washington.  I will be totally shocked if Obama does not win Washington.  I think his staff's prediction of a 60-40 split is about right.

Grassroots Obama folks have been organizing for over a year.  There has been tremendous energy.  The headlines in all the papers have been much bigger for Obama.  Here are a couple of indications about the relative energy:

1) Yesterday, Obama got the endorsement of Christine Gregoire, the state's female Governor. This came in spite of the fact that both of WA's women Senators were lobbying hard for an endorsement for HRC.  Gregoire faces a tough re-election fight in the fall.  Do you think she would have come out for Obama unless she sensed  strong grassroots support for Obama?

2) HRC flew in to Spokane yesterday and drew a crowd of 700; meanwhile, Michelle Obama drew a crowd of 1600 in the same city, which is in the conservative area of Washington.  Think about it, Michelle outdraws Hillary 2 to 1.

Once again, Jerome is spinning more than predicting.


by upper left on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:26:00 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Jerome does not worth a front page forum. he rarely says anything that turns out to be correct. Tomorrow, He will be spinning why he was wrong. Ouchh ...I've heard that before. Are you a progressive? The truth shouldn't hurt too much


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:30:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (2.00 / 1)

My predictions for the week

Washington: Obama by 9
Nebraska: Obama by 16
Louisiana: Obama by 6
Maine: Obama by 4
Virginia: Obama by 14
Maryland: Obama by 12
Washington DC: Obama by 27


by Syrith on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:28:36 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

good preditions although i think the washington state win for obama will be more like 17% and the louisiana win will be around 13%.
by supsupsup on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't see the WA prediction happening. (none / 0)

Obama's up 63-33 in the last SurveyUSA poll, and was up 58-37 in the one beforehand. If anyone has the momentum, he does.

The numbers that SurveyUSA is displaying in the open are meaningless; you have to look in the crosstabs to see the breakdown among those who are going to caucus. And among those, Obama wins big.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:10:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

9th vs 19th--and a prediction (none / 0)

Wouldn't that be something--Obama wins the caucus, but Clinton takes the beauty contest ten days later.

Can we just junk caucuses all together?  It would be the democratic thing to do.

Anyway, Maine will keep Hillary from getting skunked in the Feb 9-12 group of states.  Louisiana may be fairly close, but BHO wins that one.  As for delegates, Obama +30.


by mikelow1885 on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

obama takes all 5 (none / 0)

maine will be closest of the 5. this will by no means be the end of hillary as the obama delegate advantage from these 5 will only be 40 or so.
by supsupsup on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:29:26 PM EST

Wait a minute... (2.00 / 1)

Before Super Tuesday, you were looking at the month-long polling averages and saying how you didn't see any gains for Obama. You said that based on the polling, there was no way that Obama could win more than 7-9 states. (And it was impossible for him to win more delegates!)

Now you're ignoring the polling because it doesn't favor Clinton.

Nothing quite like cherry-picking polls, is there? I don't understand how you can be such a bitter candidate supporter.

Why don't you come back to the reality based community? We miss you.


by Kal on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:37:36 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

How strong is HRC in Hawaii? You do not think Obama will be able to use his favorite son status to pull out a win?

I know nothing about Hawaii but just assumed he would be strong there.

I think HRC wins Wa.,Maine and Va.
I think Obama takes Neb,La,DC and Md.

Small gain for obama on delegates..on to wisconsin and hawaii.


by hawkjt on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 12:56:56 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

if hill wins wa, me and va i will donate $100 to her campaign and switch my vote from obama to her.
by supsupsup on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:12:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As posted above! (none / 0)

I know a lot about Hawaii. I am pretty sure Hillary won't win in Hawaii.


"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Washington system (none / 0)

There doesn't seem to be a good understanding here of why we in Washington have this system.  First, there are other states that have both a primary and a caucus system.  Usually when there are two elections the primary is a beauty contest and the caucus is the real thing but that is not always the case.  Really, the only confusing thing that would make WA stand out is that the Primary is close after the Caucus and people have their ballots for the Primary right now.

The Democrats are not to blame for this system.  It is the Christian Coalition.  In 1988, Pat Robertson won this state and won all of the delegates.  In fact, the Republican state party chair was a delegate to their national convention only because the Robertson people allowed him to be.  This led to a push by the Republicans for a Presidential Primary.  They pushed an initiative, got it on the ballot and the voters passed it.  Since voters in WA are fairly independent (although strongly supporting Democrats) there are no real restrictions on who can vote in either party's primary other than a weak statement.  So, any attempt by WA Democrats to allocate delegates based on the primary would violate party rules and the delegates would not be seated.  That means that Democrats allocate delegates based on the caucus results.

On the other hand, Republicans are trying to prevent the Religious Right from controlling their party and losing all of the elections (anyone remember Bob Williams and Ellen Craswell?) while not being really interested in having the more independent voters in WA from choosing a non establishment candidate.  That means allocating delegates based on both caucus and primary which they can change at any time.

So, don't blame Democrats for this unless you are suggesting that the Democrats should eliminate a voter approved primary or allow non Democrats to select the Democratic nominee.


by msstaley on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:13:44 PM EST

We in Oregon often wonder about WA. (none / 0)

"I would also like to nominate Washington State for having the most screwed up system I've seen so far (what an embarrassment for you evergreeners"

Their football program is also questionable.
Go, Ducks.


by joliepoint on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 01:51:22 PM EST

A Bunch of Post On (none / 0)

Kos from Omaha, turnout in every district is up HUGE!!! they are having to move sites to parking lots... And Obama is winning about 70-30, nobody is reporting Clinton getting over 33 at any site.  

One news channel says at one caucus site the Obama line is half a block long (they had to switch to ballets after 1000 people showed up) and "no one" yes that is "no one" is in the Clinton line...The Obama line is chanting and having a good time...and "no one" is in the Clinton line.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 02:07:42 PM EST

Caucuses are a hell of a lot of fun... (none / 0)

all of sudden. Democratic caucuses in this election cycle are big parties. This is the first time in decades that the Democratic party has put forth a candidate that men love to caucus for.
I can't imagine things being any different in Washington or in Maine tomorrow.
Obama just excites everybody, and supporting him makes people feel happy and hopeful for the future.
Go Obama!
Yes We Can!
"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:15:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nebraska (none / 0)

7 of 49 districts reporting

District : 2 all to Obama (number not specified)
5 Obama 6  Clinton 3
8 Obama 11 Clinton 2
9 Obama 7  Clinton 3
10 Obama 9  Clinton 3
12 Obama 8  Clinton 2
31 Obama 6  Clinton 3

That is 47 to 16 or 75% to 25%


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:55:18 PM EST

Re: Nebraska (none / 0)

Where are you getting these?  I really want to see the results as quickly as they are known.


by Tantris on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nebraska (none / 0)

Actually Kossers are reporting on their districts as they come back from the Caucus - I just put together the totals

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/9/1 24350/3207/224/453352


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

What if Obama wins the caucus, but Clinton wins the primary? Would Obama really deserve having the delegate lead, while not leading in the popular vote?

I was thinking about that. SurveyUSA did a poll which showed more people planned on participating in the primary. What if Clinton does win the primary? What does that say about our system. The primary will have far more participants. How will it affect the race? It will have no impact on delegates.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 03:58:27 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

"How will it affect the race?"

It won't. There are a number of reasons why the results will could be different.

The first is that people know the primary doesn't count so don't care. Either they don't vote in the primary or vote the other candidate to be funny.

A second if Clinton wins the primary but Obama wins the caucus, it's possible that the Clinton supporters don't care as much as the Obama supporters to Caucus (or don't have time, etc.)

A third: the Obama message is so powerful that something weird happend when you put clinton voters in the same room with Obama voters. Some of the clinton folks go over to the Obama side.

This actually happened in Iowa. There's a NY Times or Washington Post article about it but I'm too lazy to go look.

In any case, the point is that only one counts. Whatever the results of the "primary," one will be able to come up with many different reasons for why things happen they way they did.

I'm sure it won't stop people for arguing though.


by poserM on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

the Obama message is so powerful that something weird happend when you put clinton voters in the same room with Obama voters. Some of the clinton folks go over to the Obama side.

give me a a break, I was inside an Iowa caucus and saw no such thing.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 04:22:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

for what it's worth.
WA: Obama 65%, Clinton 33%.  
LA: Obama 46%, Clinton 41%.
NE: Obama 67%, Clinton 32%.
VI: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%.

Pledged Delegates:
Obama 99, Clinton 62.
http://sooquler.blogspot.com/


by Soo on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 06:45:38 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

When Jerome's anti-Obama hype is once again proven to be wrong (GMAB HRC wins Washington), and close to dead wrong, will he stop this nonsense. I hope so, although I doubt it.


by mindermast on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 07:19:05 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

I posted the update that Obama would win well before the vote, the poll was a primary one, showing it close. Internal tabs showed it not so.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 08:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Oops. Obama wins Washington 2-1 margin, same as Nebraska. And Obama also exceeds his campaign's expectations in Louisiana, albeit by about 1 delegate. So it looks like the final results will have Obama exceeding his own high expectations for tonight by +11 delegates or so.

Can you spell "landslide"?


by KeithPickering on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:03:32 PM EST

Re: Weekend Election Prediction Thread (none / 0)

Wow, that was just a thumping tonight.


by Pat Flatley on Sat Feb 09, 2008 at 11:38:55 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: