House Dems Have First Retirement in Competitive District

The breaking news out of Oregon this morning was that Congresswoman Darlene Hooley has decided not to run for reelection in the state's fifth congressional district, which has a Cook PVI of D+1 (it tends to lean about 1 point more Democratic than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections). The Republicans have a self-funder in the district who proved to have little electoral appeal in 2006, and other names may join in the mix on that side, as well. But for those interested, Kari Chisholm gives us an idea of some of the many names on the Democratic side who could make for strong nominees. I'm summarizing his list (which is in alphabetical order), so for more head over to Blue Oregon.

  • State Rep. Brian Clem, a freshman from a swing portion of the district who overwhelmingly defeated a Republican incumbent (with over 60 percent) in 2006.
  • State Senate President Peter Courtney, who also represents a swing portion of the district.
  • Iraq War veteran Paul Evans, a former mayor and unsuccessful 2006 state Senate candidate.
  • House Majority Leader Dave Hunt, who comes from the heart of Clackamas County (one of the two big counties in the district).
  • John Kroger or Greg Macpherson, who are running against each other for Attorney General in a Democratic primary.
  • State Senator Kurt Schrader or Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader, both of whom have a record of winning in red portions of the district.

One other name being floated is apparently that of Steve Novick, who is currently running for Senate in the state in a Democratic primary against House Speaker Jeff Merkley. It's not clear that he has a particular incentive to or interest in running for the House rather than the Senate. However, Novick would have the advantage of being able to transfer all of the funds from his Senate campaign to a House campaign (candidates with state campaign accounts cannot transfer those funds to a federal race).

More broadly, the trends in the district look good for the Democrats, so even though it's no doubt more difficult for a party to hold a seat left open by a retirement than it is to hold one in which a popular incumbent is running for reelection, this isn't necessarily a terrible situation for the Democrats. For instance, in 2002 Democrat Ted Kulongoski lost (.pdf) Clackamas and Marion counties, the two largest counties in the district; in 2006 he won both.

Again, obviously in a situation like this the Democrats would rather see the popular incumbent seek reelection rather than retire, opening up a seat in a competitive district. At the same time, the Democrats should hold this seat, both because of the trends in the districts and broader trends (including the fact that the DCCC has well over $30 million more in the bank than the NRCC).



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Upside & Downside (none / 0)

I thought it was instructive that in her press release, Hooley noted that part of the reason she was retiring now was because it would likely be a strong Democratic year.  If there was ever a time for a candidate to gain an incumbency advantage in a tough district, this would be it.  

I don't know Oregon politics, but it sure sounds like there are a number of big name Democrats on that list.  Are any of them particularly progressive?


by HSTruman on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:34:04 PM EST

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I thought Novick was in the third district?

I know he was talking about running for DeFazio's or Blumenauer's seat if either of them got in to the Senate race, which would suggest he lives in one of those two.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:04:13 PM EST

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Defazio in the senate would be a sight to see.


by Soltare on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:39:54 PM EST
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OK, now we have to nominate Obama.  McCain beats Hillary in Oregon( http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtPopup.aspx?g=02e7b727-6605-4337-a5dd-6 fd48a5ce48c&q=40146) and would carry this district, while Obama beats McCain and would likely carry this district(http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtPopup.aspx?g=d53a4614-374a-4fca-9402-8 ed9529e5197&q=44325).  We do not have a choice now.  If we wanna gain seats in the House, we have to nominate Obama.  


by Toddwell on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:56:58 PM EST

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bullshit. i'm an oregonian and i don't even for a minute believe that McCain will carry oregon.


by Soltare on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:30:50 PM EST
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then again, there is a fair bit of hate for the clintons closing up a lot of logging in oregon at the end of his term. cost a lot of jobs


by Soltare on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:33:43 PM EST
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Re: House Dems (none / 0)

He's leading Hillary now.  If he leads this far out, he will probably carry the state against her, considering that she has no more upside potential.  Its a different story with Obama.  


by Toddwell on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:33:52 PM EST
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i just find it hard to believe that a republican could take us in the GE

Oregon is a relatively progressive state (hates taxes though, fucking libertarians)


by Soltare on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:38:43 PM EST
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But if we are not careful, we could lose this seat if the state vote gets too close.  


by Toddwell on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:41:37 PM EST
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Argh. Sometimes I hate reality. You're totally right. We've got a major Senate race to win and we need a popular Democrat running for POTUS to make sure we pickup that seat.


Netroots Director for Oregon Senate Candidate Jeff Merkley
by Sarah Lane on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:46:38 PM EST
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Here's the breakdown of OR-5. I call this one a likely hold.

We pick up Democrats in the parts of Clackamas closest to Portland, in Corvallis in Benton County, on the coast (Tillamook and Lincoln Counties), and in some parts of Salem.  The Republicans are in the Suburbs from South Clackamas to and including Keizer and most of Salem, and in the rural inland parts (Polk and the easternmost part of the district), except that the former are wealthy libertarians who are registered (R) mostly because they hate taxes, and the latter are unemployed loggers who hate anything they consider snooty, including the Suburban Republicans. It is very difficult to find a Republican with broad appeal in the whole party, which is a big part of why Kopetski and Hooley held the district when it was more Republican than it is now.


by admiralnaismith on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:07:38 PM EST

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Mannix really kinda soured the state to republicans.


by Soltare on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:32:22 PM EST
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This is not good news. Hooley would have been re-elected and now we need to find a good replacement. I find it interesting that Novick is being floated. IMO, it's a great idea. I support Merkley for Senate and think he has the best shot against Smith statewide. However, having Novick run for Hooley's seat would be an easy way to get both  Merkley and Novick elected. And, lord knows we need all the progressives we can get in Congress. Novick could not only transfer his campaign cash, but he also has built up name recognition.


Netroots Director for Oregon Senate Candidate Jeff Merkley
by Sarah Lane on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 07:43:37 PM EST


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