The breaking news out of Oregon this morning was that Congresswoman Darlene Hooley has decided not to run for reelection in the state's fifth congressional district, which has a Cook PVI of D+1 (it tends to lean about 1 point more Democratic than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections). The Republicans have a self-funder in the district who proved to have little electoral appeal in 2006, and other names may join in the mix on that side, as well. But for those interested, Kari Chisholm gives us an idea of some of the many names on the Democratic side who could make for strong nominees. I'm summarizing his list (which is in alphabetical order), so for more head over to Blue Oregon.
One other name being floated is apparently that of Steve Novick, who is currently running for Senate in the state in a Democratic primary against House Speaker Jeff Merkley. It's not clear that he has a particular incentive to or interest in running for the House rather than the Senate. However, Novick would have the advantage of being able to transfer all of the funds from his Senate campaign to a House campaign (candidates with state campaign accounts cannot transfer those funds to a federal race).
More broadly, the trends in the district look good for the Democrats, so even though it's no doubt more difficult for a party to hold a seat left open by a retirement than it is to hold one in which a popular incumbent is running for reelection, this isn't necessarily a terrible situation for the Democrats. For instance, in 2002 Democrat Ted Kulongoski lost (.pdf) Clackamas and Marion counties, the two largest counties in the district; in 2006 he won both.
Again, obviously in a situation like this the Democrats would rather see the popular incumbent seek reelection rather than retire, opening up a seat in a competitive district. At the same time, the Democrats should hold this seat, both because of the trends in the districts and broader trends (including the fact that the DCCC has well over $30 million more in the bank than the NRCC).
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