Maybe Its a New York Thing?

Growing up in the NJ suburbs during the 90's, I'd seen as many ridiculous Rudy moves as it is possible to witness. As such, I was not surprised by his irrational reliance on the Florida primary to save a campaign that never got off the ground. The logic of the move escaped me then, and does now. Whatever advantage Rudy's campaign envisioned in the Sunshine State was allowed to evaporate as his opponents racked up wins, delegates, momentum, and cash in the preceding states. When the predicted day of Rudy's Shock and Awe victory arrived, the consequences of these bonehead moves became apparent.
Knowing his history, I thought this was just another example Giuliani stupidity. However, I'm beginning to think its a New York thing, as Sen. Clinton is now employing the same strategy

A quick look at a memo from Mark Penn, on the website Hillary has been so eager to have us visit, shows the misguided writing on the wall.

Although the remaining February map will favor Obama, the remaining three large primary states -- Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania -- are states with a lot of delegates, strong support from elected officials there (governors of Ohio and PA), and who see Hillary as the candidate with the solutions to the problems they face.

Already there have been rumblings and leaks that Hillary will not contest several primaries where Obama has clear demographic advantages (D.C. and Maryland). Like Rudy, Hillary is facing both demographic and financial woes, and believes that her hopes for the nomination can be salvaged by ignoring unfriendly states for hopes of big wins down the line.

This plan suffers from the same drawbacks now as it did for Rudy. Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania do not hold their primaries in a vacuum. These contests will be significantly affected by a month of solid performance from Obama, who could reasonably win 9 states before the race arrives at Clinton's mythical favored ground. As Obama's momentum grows over this time, not only do voters in these states begin to see him as a superior choice, his already significant fundraising advantages will only grow, allowing his campaign to undermine Clinton's perceived advantages even further.

Notice that I say "perceived" advantages. Much like Rudy before her, Clinton may be overstating her advantage in her favored contests. Texas, as a "quasi-caucus" state, may see a repeat of Obama's dominating performance in caucuses thus far. I personally would love to see Mark Penn's statement (same memo as above) that "the clock is running out on Sen. Obama's venue of choice - the caucus" rehashed the day after such a result. Obama is identifying and training his now-familiar gaggle of volunteers in Texas to maximize this possibility, with hundreds attending training/organizing meetings. This ground game extends into Ohio, where Illinois Senator Dick Durbin and Cuyahoga County Commissioner Tim Hagan spoke to a similar meeting that exceeded the capacity of the local community center to hold it. While Clinton has key endorsements from established figures such as Gov. Strickland, an effective ground game and solid retail politics could be predicted to undermine her chances for victory even absent the month of success and momentum Obama is likely to be carrying.

Again, maybe its a New York thing, something a bridge-and-tunnel Jersey boy could just never understand. But to my view, Hillary is priming herself, in Mythical March, for the same kind of failure Rudy "Noun-Verb-911" Giuliani set himself up for in Florida.

Cites and Sites Below.
http://thebellwetherdaily.blog...

www.hillaryclinton.com/blog



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Re: Maybe Its a New York Thing? (none / 0)

I agree that it would be a mistake if the Clinton campaign went dark until March 4. I'm not convinced that is what will happen though. Hopefully they are smart enough to realize that's not a good strategy.
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong --Stephen Stills "For What It's Worth"
by vj on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:59:41 PM EST

Re: Maybe Its a New York Thing? (none / 0)

What you fail to take into account is that Obama had an incredible amount of momentum going into Super Tuesday, with the landslide victory in South Carolina and the Kennedy endorsements, among other things.  The result was that he got smashed in the big states and managed a draw overall.

Obama will certainly get some amount of momentum if he does well in February, but I wouldn't count on it being narrative-changing at this point.  Texas is not sitting around waiting to see what Maryland and Nebraska do.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 02:22:40 PM EST


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