A quick look at a memo from Mark Penn, on the website Hillary has been so eager to have us visit, shows the misguided writing on the wall.
Although the remaining February map will favor Obama, the remaining three large primary states -- Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania -- are states with a lot of delegates, strong support from elected officials there (governors of Ohio and PA), and who see Hillary as the candidate with the solutions to the problems they face.
This plan suffers from the same drawbacks now as it did for Rudy. Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania do not hold their primaries in a vacuum. These contests will be significantly affected by a month of solid performance from Obama, who could reasonably win 9 states before the race arrives at Clinton's mythical favored ground. As Obama's momentum grows over this time, not only do voters in these states begin to see him as a superior choice, his already significant fundraising advantages will only grow, allowing his campaign to undermine Clinton's perceived advantages even further.
Notice that I say "perceived" advantages. Much like Rudy before her, Clinton may be overstating her advantage in her favored contests. Texas, as a "quasi-caucus" state, may see a repeat of Obama's dominating performance in caucuses thus far. I personally would love to see Mark Penn's statement (same memo as above) that "the clock is running out on Sen. Obama's venue of choice - the caucus" rehashed the day after such a result. Obama is identifying and training his now-familiar gaggle of volunteers in Texas to maximize this possibility, with hundreds attending training/organizing meetings. This ground game extends into Ohio, where Illinois Senator Dick Durbin and Cuyahoga County Commissioner Tim Hagan spoke to a similar meeting that exceeded the capacity of the local community center to hold it. While Clinton has key endorsements from established figures such as Gov. Strickland, an effective ground game and solid retail politics could be predicted to undermine her chances for victory even absent the month of success and momentum Obama is likely to be carrying.
Again, maybe its a New York thing, something a bridge-and-tunnel Jersey boy could just never understand. But to my view, Hillary is priming herself, in Mythical March, for the same kind of failure Rudy "Noun-Verb-911" Giuliani set himself up for in Florida.
Cites and Sites Below.
http://thebellwetherdaily.blog...
www.hillaryclinton.com/blog
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