Obama made the argument today that if he went into the convention with the lead in pledged delegates, that he would make the case to the superdelegates that they needed to back him, because he was the choice of the people. That's a good strategy, but it has a couple of problems he's got to overcome to get into that position.
The Feb 5th delegates are still being counted, and with 75 remaining, Clinton and Obama are tied at 803 each; it will likely wind up being an Obama gain by the time they are all counted. Obama already has the pledged delegate lead at 866 to 851, a lead of 15, which will be increased.
Still, Clinton's superdelegate lead of 79 puts her out in front, which is the advantage of Clinton that Obama is trying to lessen. But there's also the Michigan and Florida delegate problem sitting out there for Obama. In those two states, Clinton holds 178 more delegates, Obama has 67, with 55 uncommitted and 13 for Edwards. So really, for Obama to be able to make this argument unfettered (and to also solve the Florida & Michigan problem), he's got to get to the point of overcoming that additional 111 Clinton lead of delegates (saying he's got those 55 is something that would require more to happen and I've heard different scenarios-- even that they could eventually become additional Clinton delegates).
But, it might be doable. Obama would need to pound it down state-by-state, till he gained a lead of over 111 pledged delegates over Clinton, then he could make that then-compelling argument to the superdelegates about his being the peoples choice (with the frosting to prove it), seat the Florida & Michigan delegates, and have his cake.
That's Obama's way into the nomination. Obviously, Clinton's was to win big on Feb 5th, and they did, in all the big states that were up for grabs (except for MO where it was tied). But the Clinton campaign was out-done by the compete-everywhere mentality of the Obama campaign. It just killed the Clinton campaign that they didn't have a caucus strategy in place for Feb 5th. That miscalculation cost Clinton the pledged delegate lead.
The Clinton's are not in the position where they can afford to cede the remaining caucus states. Maybe that's why Clinton was up in Maine today; but it's also just about too late to do anything about it, as this week pretty much wraps it up for the caucuses (HI and WY are all to remain in Feb). Although, one other significant caucus state to go is Puerto Rico and their 55 delegates on June 7th-- imagine this wild campaign winding up there for a moment.
That ties into Clinton's strategy to win, going forward. It hinges on her eventually taking the pledged delegate lead, but also, never, ever, ever, losing the overall delegate lead that includes superdelegates. But first things first, Clinton needs to win something more in February, among the 10 remaining contests.
Update [2008-2-7 0:55:59 by Jerome Armstrong]: Just received a PR that Clinton has scheduled to be in Washington State both Thursday night and all-day Friday (and then back to Maine again on Sat), ahead of the caucus there-- if its combined with some 24/7 precinct organizing in the state, that'll avoid a blowout.
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