That was an estimate.

Obama all the way!!

Chuck Todd is the best political analyst on television period. When he talks people listen to him.

If the delegates are really that split than Obama really won tonight for he was suppose to lose by around 100 delegates.

Big overall win for Obama tonight.

Damn...everyone was saying Obama needed to stay within 100 or 150 to stay in contention.

He's close or ahead in delegates, won nearly TWICE as many states, and is leading in cash and contributors...

HUGE night for Obama.

Is this just among earned delegates, excluding FL and MI?

So why didn't the Clintons' campaign in the midwest/rocky-mountain caucus states?

Obama wins on strategy too...caucus states.

Huge victory for Obama. He won more states and more delegates. Given the very favorable calender and his huge fundraising advantage, I'd say he has a 75% chance of winning the nomination.

Numbers don't make sense ... only 2,025 delegates total.  Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and many other states still to vote.  Perhaps, after Maryland, DC, and Virgina primaries?  What am I missing?

The conventional wisdom was he would "win" if he came within 100 delegates.  If he wins, he REALLY wins.

The next few contests sure favor Obama...The hispanic voters won't be able to help her out again until Texas which is a ways away.

I wouldn't call it a split decision. Not when all projections had a good Obama night within 100 delegates of the candidate who supported the invasion of Iraq. I'd say it's a win. This is going to be a long month for the candidate who stood to the right of John McCain on torture.

Todd's math does not count super delegates and ignores MI and FL, which he does at his peril after what Howard Dean said today.

California could be shaping up to be a blowout of 20% or more and MO will probably go to recount.

Everyone needs to take a breath and stop spinning. No one got blown out but as  Clinton supporter I am thrilled with winning the big states and nullifying Kennedy/Kerry in CA and MA. LMAO

Obama won his home state by 67 delegates (110-43; 153 total). Clinton won her home state by 52 delegates (142-90; 232 total). Among home states, Obama won a net delegate margin of 15. That's a good number - but even more impressive when you consider that New York had 79 more delegates up for grabs than Illinois.

Ben SMith - Berman's count: 606-534 Politico 5 Feb 08

Obama is position to sweep the caucus states. According to early projections, Obama is likely to take delegates by about a 2-to-1 margin in Minnesota (72 total delegates), Kansas (32 total delegates), North Dakota (13 total delegates).

Ben Smith - Berman's count: 606-534 Politico 5 Feb 08

Clinton has an approx 90 delegate lead in superdelegates, Obama led by 15 pledged going in, so he's now behind by 70 or so overall.

More pledged delegates + more states = Obama victory (for today) if these estimates are anything close to accurate.

Objectively, this is essentially a draw.  But from a spin perspective, I think the above equation wins the day.  We'll see though.  The Clinton folks know how to spin better than anyone.

The back room political machines kept this night from being a disaster for Hillary.  But if Obama has a pledged delegate lead in the 20-30 range going into several contests that are SUPPOSED to favor Obama, perhaps that turns into an advantage of 80-100 pledged delegates.  Is that enough to even out the split in superdelegates, momentum-wise?  Will it carry over into Texas?  Will the Rendell machine give Hillary a firewall in PA?  Ohio has no machine, but Strickland is very popular.  Can he deliver like Vilsack could not?  What about Bayh in Indiana?

And the elephant(s) in the room nobody is discussing - is this showing by Obama enough to trigger a Gore and/or Edwards endorsement?  Maybe Edwards can still play kingmaker.

These will be interesting times, folks.

the good thing is that obama will have a good 3 weeks or so to concentrate on texas, ohio and PA. he will kill in va, md, dc.  

Hillary had her two homestates and just couldn't pull it off. (Obama still has Hawaii coming up)

I think tonight is a victory for Obama.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama picks up more super delegates...especially if polls continue to show him in better position to beat McCain in November...

He wins the delegates.  He wins the number of States.  Call it a win.  No doubt he got hurt in California by the early voting.

anyone know what the polls showed in New Mexico?

Barack Obama has defeated the Terry McAuliffe front loaded calendar and overcome significant institutional disadvantages by gnawing his way to a delegate draw.  

The winner of the post February 5 contests will be the Democratic Party nominee.  The combination of more money, more energy and more time are all to Obama's advantage.

PS- Clare McCaskill rules.

What the Clinton Camp takes away from tonight: "We've taken three uppercuts (IA, SC, and the Kennedy endorsement) from Obama, and we're still standing and more-or-less in the lead. Our core of support is more solid and larger than we thought it was and we've finally figured out how to present Hillary in a way that begins to bridge the inspiration gap. We're worried that our support among black voters is dangerously low and that Obama's about to spend us into the ground over the next two weeks."

What the Obama Campaign takes away from tonight:
"Our message is clearly winning. We won the spin war and the press is now solidly on our side. We have an amazing grassroots following and our organizers are the best in the business. My landslide margins among upscale whites, african-americans, is really going to play to my advantage in the next three big contests (Va, MD, and WI). We are the best funded primary campaign in the history of American politics and we haven't even hit second gear. We're worried that we seem to be running into a wall with latino voters. We're worried that after taking several damn good shots from us, Clinton's still more-or-less beating us. We're worried that we've run out of gimmicks to keep the press excited about us."

If that's true and Obama got more delegates even though Clinton beat him by hundreds of thousands of votes, then that's a sad statement about how Democrats choose their nominee.

Hillary won the night hands down.  how absurd is it to be touting red states that will have no play in the general election?  you can count the dems in most of the states BO won on one hand.  this comment section is so devoid of lunch bucket and latino dems, neither of which has or will drink the obama kool aid.  tally the votes.  hillary won millions more votes tonight.  the nomination will be hers because her coalition is the heart and soul of the Democratic party.  Indies and wealthy whites do not a Democratic coalition make even if they are buttressed with the AA community.

Jeez, if Obama had pulled out one of the tossup states of NJ, MA, or CA, it would be a really huge night for him.

Why do I expect to wake up to a media barrage telling me that the evening belonged to Hillary?

pj

Big story: according to MSNBC exit polls Clinton's lead among women nationwide was something like 5 points. Not a good number for Hillary Clinton.

Also, the Southern strategy that Pat Buchanan and some HRC supporters on this site kept railing about didn't work! Obama closed the gap among white voters and is even beginning to pull away Hispanics.

columbus mayor coleman is an early obama supporter. he is also quite popular despite a wife who is always in some trouble.

cleveland has huge AA population.

And where is Chuck Todd getting his CD level data? I can't find it...