Your chart shows both (or either) RCP and pollster averages putting Hillary on top in these states:

Connecticut
Delaware
Alabama
Massachusetts
Missouri
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Arizona
Minnesota
New York
Utah
California

A state where neither RCP nor pollster has an average is Arkansas, but I think we can safely put that in Hillary's column. If that's what happens, Hillary gets 14 states, including the big prizes of California, New York, and New Jersey.

Either or both RCP and pollster has Obama up in these states:

Georgia
Illinois
New Mexico
Colorado

There is no polling average presented for the following states, but they may prove to be Obamaland:

Arkansas
North Dakota
Kansas
Idaho
Alaska

So if all these trends and speculations all proved true, Hillary will wind up with 14 states and Obama will wind up with nine states. Under this scenario, in General Elections, Hillary's states mostly tend to be blue and Obama's mostly tend to be red. Interestingly, Hillary gets all the big Super Tuesday states except Illinois, where Obama has the hometown advantage.

Check out these forecasts.

You left out Minnesota.

I've got Clinton by 70 delegates. I think the realm of possibilities is anything between 25 delegates and 140 delegates. It mostly depends on the results in CA/AZ/NM, but also MO,MN,CT, and NJ.

You forgot American Samoa. Results from there will probably be known before California.

Democrats Abroad also kicked off Super Tuesday (at 12:01 a.m. Jakarta time), but results won't be known there at least until all the Internet voting closes on February 12th. There are 7 elected delegates at stake in that contest, although it's weird because it's actually 14 people, each with half a full vote.  So you could end up with something like 4.5 for Obama and 2.5 for Clinton. Let's hope it won't come down to half delegates. :-)

will be determined by superdelegates in the end.

Predictions for Super- Tuesday Add to Hotlist

by Jr1886, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:49:13 AM EST

Here's a prediction thread. The three biggest shocker from my predictions: Obama will win California, Massachusett, and Missouri.

Obama's column( in order of certainty with 1= Most certain & 17 least certain)

11- Alabama
7-  ALaska
10- California
9-  Colorado
12- Connecticut
17- Delaware
8-  Democrats abroad
2-  Georgia
5-  Idaho
1-  Illinois
3-  Kansas
16- Massachusetts
15- Minnesota
14- Missouri
13- New Mexico
4-North Dakota
6-Utah
 So Obama will win 16 states and Democrats abroad. This is huge

Clinton Column(1 most certain &6 least certain)

6- Arizona
2- Arkansas
5- New Jersey
1- New York
4- Oklahoma
3- Tennesse

So Clinton will pick up 6 states

more than one 'optimist'  here I see.. Obama wins 3 states

States, shmates.  Obama holds Clinton to within a hundred delegate margin.  That'll do.

Obama has a frightening amount of momentum in CA right now. By all appearances, he's going to win there. Really can't say what's likely to happen with the overall delegate count.

Why are we obsessed with delegate counts? Are we completely convinced that both of these candidates are prepared to advance this fight all the way to the convention as long as they are within a close delegate range? Further, don't delegate counts obscure what is really important -- namely, which candidate has the greater amount of popular support in the party?

None of us know what will happen, and the pollsters in california are all over the place.  If hillary wins Mass,NY, NJ and Cal she will be the nominee-- and she will have earned it fair and square.  If the democratic race is not settled by tomorrow, then McCain will win the presidency.  If Obama, comes out on top, McCain will also win the presidency.  The Obama approach of not emphasizing substance has never worked in presidential campaigns.  Gary Hart, Bill bradley, Adlai Stevenson all ran campaigns that emphasized bullshit "new politics" themes that simply do not resonate with the typical middle class voter.politics is about fighting over ideas and the nations direction in addressing issues and problems.  There is no such thing as "unity" in a diverse nation of 350 million people.

Hillary will win decidedly today. Obama will have the young and African American vote in California. Hillary will get Hispanics, Union voters and women.  She wins the nom tonight.

Survey USA poll might be so off compared to other polls because they overestimated Latino turnout. Essential reading:http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=365

Survey USA also has Hillary leading among young voters by +3. This is way out of what we thought we know before, that is young people usually favored Obama by 2 to 1.

and I know I'm not the only one :)

I am not so sure Obama is favored in all caucus states. He won the Iowa caucus, but lost the nevada one. So its a wash.

After Edwards dropping out I really dont have a horse in this race although I have a feeling downticket democrats might fare better with Obama on top of the ticket.

My prediction is a very close race in delegates. And Hillary winning a bare majority of states.

I think Obama will crush Hillary in Illinous, while New York will be surprisingly close.

New Jersey will be closer than expected too.

And Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Guam, Missouri, North Dakota, Minnesota and possibly Kansas will be in Obamas colummn.

I think Clinton will win most states with higher latino population, including CA, AZ and NM.

Everybody is talking about CA. But the story I predict out of Super Tuesday might just be: Obama giving Clinton a scare in her home state and neighboring NJ, while Obama crushes Clinton in IL. If CA is close and will be too late for many newspapers to put the final result in their front page stories, the print media will have to find other headlines. Another possibility is, that McCain will be the story of the night.

At 7:15am in midtown Kansas City there were twenty people who had come out in a cold thunderstorm, almost all asking for the Democratic ballot.  For a normal primary vote in good weather at 7:15 we would usually see 5-7 people.

NJ should definitely be considered an open primary.  I just got back from the polls.  If you are not registered to a party, you can declare at the polls.  It was as simple as the poll worker marking a "D" (or "R") in a box next to your name and that was that.  Since they don't ask for a party when you register and NJ has never had a meaningful primary in my voting lifetime (it used to be in like June), almost no one on the rolls that I saw had an affiliation next to their name, meaning that, at least in my precinct, basically any one could just show up and vote in whatever primary they want.  I'l change my registration back to unaffiliated after the November election.

I have no idea what impact this will have (if any), just sayin'...

i just want the time to speed up, so we can get results already

Not unusually high activity at polls in NJ this morning.  Most of the Democratic Party bigs in NJ are with Clinton, and the machine usually gets what it wants here.  I had a flyer and a call from Hillary, but did not here from O at all.

I did a little looking at the Minnesota caucuses.  Turns out the Presidential preference won't be gauged by numbers of delegates, rather, they are having a Presidential Preferrence Ballot that will be counted separately from the delegate selection.  They are doing it first thing.

So, people can just show up at the caucus, vote in the presidential preference, and then leave.  They are even advertising it that way - show up and vote, then leave if you want.

This spares one from all of the boring resoultions, delegate selection,  and real Democratic stuff that we always do at the caucuses.  This is probably bad for the party but good for the candidate whose supporters are most likely to want to show up and just leave.

Don't be surprised to hear about massive voting problems in GA tonight. The SoS here in GA changed the polling locations and failed to notify the voters of the location of their new precinct. I don't know which candidate this helps or hurts. Also this is the first primary, iirc, that will be adhering to the new voting laws.

Hillary Clinton just called my answering machine.  I picked up the phone and told her to f off, but it turns out it was just a recording.

I don't believe any of these polls.  

As an Obama fan, I completely disagree. I EXPECT Clinton to win California. What would shock me is if Obama won it.

i'll wait for the final count before i celebrate.

I have been tracking and reverse engineering the Rasmussen daily polling over the past two weeks to see what the daily sampling throws up.

When I did the same to the pre-NH numbers, it turned out that the final-day polling had a dead heat, ie a dramatic shift from BO to HRC. That was hidden among huge numbers for him the two previous days, and did not emerge until after the primary. Bet the Rasmussen guys were kicking themselves :)

Today it looks like the wind could be turning against Obama yet again:

Ras    Polling             Tracker    
    HRC    BO         HRC      BO

25-Jan    40    30          
26-Jan    40    32          
27-Jan    40    31         40      31
28-Jan    42    33         41      32
29-Jan    40    32         41      32
30-Jan    44    41         42      35
31-Jan    46    37         43      37
01-Feb    45    34         45      37
02-Feb    56    43         49      38
03-Feb    38    43         46      40
04-Feb    47    35         47      40

Note: with the exception of the weekend, which was by necessity skewed because of normal Saturday bias as well as the Superbowl, the numbers are remarkably consistent.

Hi folks...the horse races in the states are fun to look at .... but what of the projected delegates?  What do the current #'s mean in terms of delegate awards?  

Consider this before you vote: Its not the race or gender of the Captain that best predicts the success of a ship's voyage.  It is the navigated COURSE and the VISION of the Skipper that predicates the vessel's journey.  There is only one candidate that has shown leadership and unity and an innate integrity that we need to command and guide our nation into a new age...that candidate is Barack Obama

Also...consider further...HRC was supposed to have this thing WRAPPED UP.  The fact the Obama has forced the issue to a possible convention decision is A HUGE WIN for him!!!