MyDD :: Obama Rising Among White Voters

Obama Rising Among White Voters

by Todd Beeton, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:29:43 PM EST

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MSNBC just reported that the Obama campaign is starting to feel confident about the results tonight. Why? The Georgia white vote.

In South Carolina, the white vote made up 43% of the electorate and Barack Obama won just 24%, with Edwards and Clinton splitting the remaining 76%. In Georgia tonight, where the white vote makes up a similar 42% of the electorate, Clinton won the white vote by only 57%-39%.

If white voters continue to show support for Obama like this throughout the country, which is actually likely if they're doing so in the south, this is really bad news for Clinton. This was supposedly the reason Edwards's dropping out was good news for Clinton, that it would give her the lion's share of white voters, but they may have underestimated Obama's cross-over appeal.

The fact that Tennessee wasn't an automatic call for Clinton is, of course, a sign that Obama's confidence may indeed be warranted.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, barack obama, hillary clinton, white vote (all tags)

Permalink :: 28 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (2.00 / 0)

That's spin. If Clinton loses GA by less than 18-20%, it's a good night for her, because that's what the polls have been showing.

Obama advertised there; she did not. The white vote in Georgia isn't representative of the white vote in competitive Southern states.

by Trickster on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:33:17 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

She did in Atlanta, but I don't know about anywhere else.

by ejintx on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:36:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

I doubt she loses by that margin - probably more.

by rfahey22 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Clinton called victory in Tenn awhile ago.

CNN just projected her winner in Tenn as well.

by americanincanada on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:34:16 PM EST

Clinton in AR (none / 0)

Good to win your home state. :)

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:35:18 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

I never heard that Edwards' dropping out was good news for Clinton. Everyone was saying the Edwards voters would to go to Obama.

by randym77 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:37:00 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Everyone was definitely NOT saying it.

by MNPundit on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Randym, I agree with you. I thought Edwards dropping out helped Obama.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:38:24 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

So Obama got the same percentage of the white vote in GA that he got in IA?

I'd like to see what he got in TN.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:38:54 PM EST

TODD (none / 0)

The Exit Polls in GA are way off. Look at the actual numbers. Hillary is holding at 40% and Obama at 56% which means that Obama only won around 20 of white vote. Hillary won about 17% of black, same as SC.

So quit using the exit polls, they are way off tonight AGAIN, AS USUAL.

I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

by Norwegian Chef on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:40:06 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

The exit polls, at least as far as GA go, are way off. I wish people would look at the hard number before they hit "post".

by americanincanada on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:42:37 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Still pretty early. Clinton is below 40% now in Georgia.

I don't trust the polls, most especially exit polls, but it's way too early to say they're wrong. Could be the Hillary-friendly districts are reporting earlier.

by randym77 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

fulton county hasn't been counted has it? Obama is gonna slaughter her there.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:43:38 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

I'm in Atlanta. The counts for dekalb and fulton (counties with huge African american populations) have not reported yet.

by keatsheart on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:51:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

I am from Georgia, and all I can say on Obama's margin is wait until Dekalb and Fulton counties in Atlanta fully report. His margin will be well more than 18% in my opinion.

by snaktime on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:43:45 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

DeKalb has 1% in, Fulton 0%

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:45:09 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Chuck Todd saying that the proportional system is helping Obama. Hillary may win Oklahoma by 20 yet only net 8 delegates over Obama.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:47:03 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

I am an Atlanta number and the reported results mean nothing. Fulton county is the most populous county in Georgia with 810,000 people, 45% african american. There are zero votes in from Fulton. Dekalb county is maybe the 2nd or 3rd most populous county in Georgia with 740,000 people, and it is 54% african american. There are maybe 6000 votes in from Dekalb. Obama is going to blow her away in Georgia by 30 points. Just wait and see.

by snaktime on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:49:50 PM EST

Probably (none / 0)

But the exits had him winning by forty points. So far, the only states where Obama is doing as well or better than the exit polls are Alabama and Arkansas.

by Shawn on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:54:05 PM EST
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Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Clinton is looking quite good elsewhere guys so keep talking about Georgia.

She is winning all of the swing states with the exception of Connecticut. Up big in Jersey thus far, up by 14% in Massachusetts.

by ND1979 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:50:25 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

Obama ahead in DL actually.

by MNPundit on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

You have to look at where the votes are coming from.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:52:55 PM EST

if cnn exits are right: (none / 0)

mass:

clinton 50
obama 45

http://craigfarmer.blogspot.com/

I will be updating when I find things out

by yellowdem1129 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:55:23 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (2.00 / 0)

The CNN exit polls have the following results, so folks can judge how accurate they are and if they tend to be off in a consistent direction:

AL, Obama by 12
AR, Clinton by 35
CT, Obama by 3
DE, Obama by 5
GA, Obama by 31
IL, Obama by 37
MA, Clinton by 5
MO, Obama by 2
NJ, Clinton by 1
OK, Clinton by 29
TN, Clinton by 15

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:57:30 PM EST

Offer me those results right now (none / 0)

or offer them this morning -- and I take 'em.

I bet Axelrod would have taken them, too.

by zonk on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:00:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

9pm states, CNN exit polls:

AZ, Obama by 2
NM, Obama by 2
NY, Clinton by 18

Most of the 9pm states have caucuses, so there doesn't seem to be any polling.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:09:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MA is Hillary (none / 0)

What do you think?

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:58:39 PM EST

Re: Obama Rising Among White Voters (none / 0)

I can't believe I'm actually watching Fox News, but atleast they update their ticker to show wins for Clinton. CNN keeps the Obama wins X states line up there at the bottom of their site for an insane amount of time.

by Statman on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:01:18 PM EST

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