MyDD :: Early, Early Exit Polls

Early, Early Exit Polls

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:23:44 PM EST

Now we play the waiting game... Aww, the waiting game's no fun. Let's play "Early, Early Exit Polls."

Update [2008-2-5 18:20:52 by Jonathan Singer]: This just came across my desk. I can't vouch for them, and take them with a giant grain of salt (and note that the numbers may not always add up to 100 because of rounding)...

Second Wave Numbers
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26
Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45
Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42
Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46
New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41.1

First Wave Numbers
California: Clinton 50, Obama 47
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Utah: Obama 61, Clinton 40

Jim Geraghty has the Republican numbers, and I'll try to digest what we see above in a bit...

Jim Geraghty:

My first word of exit poll results says that the first two waves of results in Massachusetts show a "dead heat" between Hillary and Obama, and a 20-point margin for Romney among Republicans.

Town Hall:

In the Democratic races, Barack Obama led among black voters and Hillary Rodham Clinton led among Hispanic voters. Obama led among white men, while Clinton led among white women. Overall, Obama led among men and Clinton led among women, although her advantage among women appeared smaller than was seen in early primary states. In the Republican races, John McCain led among men. He had only a small lead over Romney among women.

[...]

The Democratic electorate was a bit younger than Republican primary-goers. More than one in 10 Democratic voters were under age 30 and one in five were over age 65. Among GOP primary voters fewer than one in 10 were under 30 and a quarter were over 65.

I might hopefully ~cross my fingers~ get some numbers soon, too. For now, this is what we've got. What say you?

Tags: Exit Polls, Super Tuesday (all tags)

Permalink :: 73 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

That Massachusetts exit poll doesn't tell me anything I already knew lol.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:07:12 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Well ...

Obama led among men and Clinton led among women and women make up a disproportionate percentage of democratic voters so, if anything, Clinton is winning the popular vote.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:07:15 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

The size of their leads among men and women, respectively, might matter a little here.

by FuzzyDunlop2 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:11:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Not to mention CNN's exit polls say that late deciders, from what they have so far, are breaking even, with Clinton only a single percent ahead.

by americanincanada on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:11:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I say we know nothing yet.

Actually, scratch that. We know everything--It'll be close and the race will continue after tonight.

by Kal on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:07:55 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Oh, come on Dad, why do you always have to be so reasonable?

by the mollusk on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:56:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

that was a joke (my boycott of smiley faces often costs me on blogs).

by the mollusk on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Don't worry, I saw it as a joke and laughed.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:07:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (2.00 / 2)

Some people, especially in the West, haven't yet entered a polling booth yet, so an exit poll info release at this point seems incredibly premature.

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:08:41 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Since women are the largest part of the electorate I can only assume Clinton is winning the popular vote.

The townhall exit polls are very vague.

by americanincanada on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:09:18 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

The quotation said that her lead among women is smaller than before.

by RandyMI on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

all that does is give me agita

Rise, Hillary, Rise

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:11:27 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Exit poll released on MSNBC, 53% said change is most important and 3/4 of the people thought Obama was best to bring change.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:13:23 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Ok so we know Obama gets at least 40% of the vote :-)

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:20:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

IF he's running even in MA, where he was down considerably only 10 days ago, that suggests the surge for Obama is real. Moreover if any of the early northeastern states get called early for Obama (along with GA which closes at 7pm and is a state Obama is likely to win) that could have an impact on the final hours of turnout in CA as well as the western caucus states where caucuses convene in the evening.

by desmoulins on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:16:36 PM EST

Great point! (none / 0)

Wasn't Obama down 20 points in Mass just 2 weeks ago? If he is able to be within single digits than I agree this does show that Obama got momentum at the end.

by puma on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:20:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

kennedy, kerry, patrick

Rise, Hillary, Rise

by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:21:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I would think exit polls would be the real place where forgetting about early voting messes the numbers up. My impression is that the normal pre election polls tend to handle early voters by also asking people who they voted for if they already voted. But an exit poll will necessarily exclude early voters, right? So that's another thing to add to the mix I'd think.

by snaktime on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:21:42 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Excuse me if I don't take the interpretations of exit polls from two extreme right wingers who absolutely hate Clinton too seriously. In a couple of hours we'll start to get a better idea. In the meantime I'll manage without Geraghty and Hewitt.

by ottovbvs on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:22:06 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

So do any of these polls show early voting?

In addition, if all of these "surges" of Obama in the past few days were real, why would late deciders be breaking dead even? If there was a surge, Obama should be up 3-1 in these late deciders.

by mbfeldma on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:22:44 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

That's what I said at DKos. Exit polls won't take into account early voting and absentee voting.

I don't know about most other states, but if Clinton is winning today's vote, she should handily take the state. At least, that's the conventional wisdom on absentees.

by Democrat724 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:32:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Yes, I hear from both campaigns that they see Clinton taking the state.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

... of CA.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:34:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I agree with that... BUT I think she wins by 5% or less which is almost as good a a win. I predict 51-47% with 2% going to others.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Numbers I am getting from someone associated with the Clinton campaign are below. Cannot vouch for accuracy as this is a new source. Take it for what it is worth.

Alabama: Obama 51, Clinton 44

Arizona: tied, 47-47

Arkansas: Clinton 66, Obama 29

California: Clinton 50, Obama 46

Connecticut: Clinton 51, Obama 44

Delaware: Obama 48, Clinton 45

Georgia: Obama 66, Clinton 32

Illinois: Obama 67, Clinton 30

Massachusetts: tied, 48-48

Missouri: Clinton 47, Obama 45

New Jersey: Clinton 49, Obama 48

New Mexico: Obama 49, Clinton 47

New York: Clinton 56, Obama 41

Oklahoma: Clinton 58, Obama 33

Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 39

by Bronx on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:23:02 PM EST

So advantage Obama? (none / 0)

As far as the expectations game goes?

by magster on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So advantage Obama? (none / 0)

I got to think anything less than 20% for Obama in NY is bad for Hillary from a spin standpoint.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:10:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I don't believe those numbers. Maybe the early voters favor Obama, but I don't believe he's going to win all those states by such a large margin.

It'll be closer than that.

by Kal on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:23:10 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I don't believe these numbers either (because I don't want to get burned again), but I'd be surprised if early voters favored Obama and not the other way around. College kids tend to vote late.

by Ryan Anderson on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

2nd wave numbers (none / 0)

very interesting, I guess no one will be knocked out if this is true. No wonder both campaigns have been talking about the rest of February.

I do find it very hard to believe Obama will win NJ, I don't trust these numbers.

John McCain is a Bush ally on Social Security.

by John DE on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:24:30 PM EST

I don't trust those numbers (none / 0)

I always remember Kerry winning exit polls but losing when the numbers were counted.

Just another hour and a half until the polls are closed on the East coast.

by puma on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

The information I've just gotten on the early results suggest that Clinton will take CA and CT but will lose AL.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:28:09 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I'm sure she'll take the swap.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:29:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

California has 4 more hours of voting left. How can anybody honestly say they know who's going to win there at this point?

by elrod on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

SPIN, SPIN

When there are conflicting exit polls out there, it means everyone should ignore them.

Votes matter, polls don't. And delegates pick the nominee.

by mainelib on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:06 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

What are the states with sizeable AA populations?

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:16 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Wow. That's all I can say. Not believing but wow.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:24 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Great for Obama except in California. I think, had he not left the state early, I think he would have won the state. But, it looks like the delegate race will be a wash today.

by mikelow1885 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:45 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Well, a California upset would be great. But a NJ upset would be nice as well!

by Drummond on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:56 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Where are these numbers from?

by Piuma on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:32:04 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Second that question. All exit poll info should be labelled, if just vaguely, with the source

by Nordicus on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

NJ is a doubtful one of these numbers, I agree. Same with AZ. The large Obama margins in AB, IL and GA don't strike me as that strange, though, especially if AA and urban turnout surges.

by Bronx on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:32:08 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

How many states have early/absentee voting and how many actually vote this way in each state? This, depending on those numbers, should skew exit poll results.

by Democrat724 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:33:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

California expects over 4 million absentee ballots to be returned. Slate has a good article about why this means you can't trust CA exit polls:
http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/fr/rss/

by LakersFan on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:39:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I don't believe the numbers, but they are good for Obama. Obama in the lead in 11 out of 16 states. Color me surprised if these numbers turn out to be true.

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:34:31 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Now we play the waiting game... Aww, the waiting game's no fun. Let's play "Early, Early Exit Polls."

Wonderful "Simpsons" reference! Now, if you'll excuse me, I want to play "Hungry, Hungry Hippos" for some reason...

by Paul Simon Democrat on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:34:49 PM EST

I knew it (none / 0)

Obama was looking kid in NJ ... Matthews is so transparent. You can see though him like glass.

Cali is still key.

I said earlier today that NJ, CA, MA, and CT all run together. I think I may be right.

I still say CA king. Whoever wins there is the nominee.

by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:34:51 PM EST

Re: I knew it (none / 0)

Agreed on CA. I also see Clinton pulling the state out by a 4-5 point margin. There will be scattered reports of undeclared voter problems causing a 1 point swing against Obama, but the margin will be enough to make it not matter in the end.

by Bronx on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I knew it (none / 0)

CA will NOT decide the nominee unless its a blowout. You guys are insane... if its a CLOSE delegate margin, it won't decide anything. If anything Hillary's Drop in the state is the biggest headline.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:15:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Think about it (none / 0)

Will Democrats nominate the loser of NY, Fl, Ca, Nj, MA. MI ....?

Will they sa WOW! you won Deleware and Georgia.. holdthe friggin' phone?

Use your head.

by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:36:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I agree Bronx, I expect something similar to SC, maybe worse now that Edwards is out in states like Georgia.

by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:35:01 PM EST

1 silver lining for Clinton (none / 0)

EXIT POLLS are just that. They don't take into account absentee voting. I am not sure if they include early voting, but assume they do ... lil help on that one.

by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:37:14 PM EST

Re: 1 silver lining for Clinton (none / 0)

An exit poll does not include mail voting.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:48:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

what about early voting ... at a poll site? (none / 0)

by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

"Early returns favor Kerry" Remember that folks?

by ND1979 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:38:42 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Is Kerry running?

by Drummond on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:51:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm in NJ (none / 0)

and everybody is asking everybody here at Princeton if they have voted. I'be been asked at least 10 times today, and Obama has a huge lead here. In fact, in a class I was Ta-ing of about 100 students, the prof mentioned he supported Obama and the class broke out in applause.

I drove down to Trenton to see what was going on there, and it too was Obama country.

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:39:03 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

I don't think these are weighted yet.

But it looks like Obama supporters are motivated to come in early. This makes me nervous because then I get to look at a long night of Hillary creeping closer as people get off work and to the polls.

MN Caucus starts in about 45 minutes.

by MNPundit on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:41:40 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Typically however, the early vote is more heavily stacked by women.

by Drummond on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:45:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Clinton voters are still at work?

by ND1979 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:43:23 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

You know early polls were wrong on 2 occasion once in 2000 and then again in 2004.

by bayareasg on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:43:52 PM EST

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Absolutely. But unless they're totally off the wall, these numbers do indicate a close race.

by Drummond on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:46:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Yes based on these #s it does look like the race in MA, CT, NJ and CA will be close so do we know anything new :)

by bayareasg on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

No. But it helps with the anxiety to be looking at numbers. Better than animal entrails.

by Drummond on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:51:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Intrade now has Obama 52 Clinton 48 FOR THE NOMINATION

by BDM on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:48:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Yes but that has to do with CA. None of the states have moved at all based on these polls.

... and from what I hear the Obama camp expects Clinton to take CA (also actually CT, NJ and MA) but they are feeling real good about the delegate count.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:53:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

Where do you hear that

by bayareasg on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early, Early Exit Polls (none / 0)

... from a person close to the Obama camp obviously.

I wish I knew someone close to the Clinton camp so I knew what they expect to lose.

by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:10:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]