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Following up on Todd's post on voting for Hillary Clinton, I kind of feel like Alma Rangel to Todd's Charlie Rangel, or James Rubin to Todd's Robert Rubin -- or one of the many, many people in the country who are voting for Barack Obama while those close to them, friends or family or co-workers, are voting for Hillary Clinton. (I promise you we aren't just hedging our bets by splitting our vote!) Today I cast my vote for Obama in the California Democratic primary.
For me, my decision comes down to a couple of things. First, I actually like both Obama and Hillary Clinton, and I'd feel comfortable voting for and wholeheartedly supporting either in a general election. While there are some differences between the two on policy issues and more on political approaches, they are close enough for me to look to other issues. What's more, I think that both of them, either of them would be able to win in November. So the difference for me is between what that win could look like.
A few weeks ago I remember watching Charlie Cook speak on MSNBC, and he crystallized things well. At this point if you were to say that the Democratic nominee is going to get somewhere between 48 percent and 52 percent of the vote, it would be more likely to be Clinton. If you were to say that the Democratic nominee is going to get either below 45 percent or above 55 percent, it would be Obama. The way I would put it is this: I see Clinton as being slightly more likely to win that Obama, but Obama more likely to win big if he does win.
In a sense, Obama is the riskier bet -- but he also presents what appears to me to be the greatest potential for upside. Fundamentally, that's what I'm hoping to see. I'm hoping for that win that approaches 55 percent, with 260+ seats in the House and close to 60 seats in the Senate. And to me, the best opportunity to achieve the type of real change that we need today is to have a massive win that brings not only new voters to the Democratic Party but also old voters new to the Democratic Party (i.e. Independents and even Republicans who have voted in the past, but just not for the Democrats). This view admittedly relies a lot on intangibles -- anecdotal evidence, gut feelings, common wisdom, etc. -- but it also relies at least upon polling, both from the primaries and also from the general election, showing new voters (particularly young voters), Independents and Republicans coming to the Democratic Party to vote Obama or hoping to do so in the future. Yes, having a less known candidate who has more potential upside and downside is a riskier proposition because of the real potential of losing (and perhaps even badly). But it's a risk I'm willing to take.
The second driving fact behind my vote in generational, and not necessarily in the sense that I'm just voting with my age cohort (which overwhelmingly supports Obama), but rather in the sense that I think it's time for there to be a generational change in the leadership of this country. The baby boomers have had their two decades at the helm of power, two decades in which we've seen a lot of progress but also a lot of bickering over old divisions (primarily Vietnam). But perhaps it's time to see a new generation that isn't hung up on Vietnam and other related issues come to the fore and lead this country. Perhaps I am too hopeful on this front. But I'm just not quite at that point in my life where I'm willing to give up hope that trying something new has the chance of yielding new and different results.
I must reiterate that I would be content if Clinton were the nominee. I have a great deal of faith in her ability to win and, what's more, to be able to use her political skills and connections to get things done as President. No one in politics today plays the game as well as the Clinton team, and that's a really enticing prospect to me (even if a good part of me hopes that we can change the game). But in my gut, for the reasons mentioned above (among others), I know Obama is my preferred candidate and he will make a great Democratic President.
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