MyDD :: Expectations for Tomorrow

Expectations for Tomorrow

by Jonathan Singer, Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:13:58 PM EST

Please Support the MyDD Fundraiser Today

Marc Ambinder, who is read by everyone and really gets it, helps set expectations for tomorrow.

According to campaign sources, polling and stealing off other analysts, Hillary Clinton has an edge in New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Obama has an edge in Idaho, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.

Tossups: California, Connecticut, Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska, Massachusetts.

As you can see from the polling, this race definitely looks like it's tightening. Hillary Clinton seems to come into voting with at least a bit of an edge -- not only from her slight, though still noticeable lead in a number of polls, but also from the fact that her campaign seems particularly adept at securing early votes (which is important to padding one's vote in California and other states) -- but not such an advantage that one would call her a prohibitive favorite.

If I had to venture a guess, it would be that Clinton would come out on top in the delegate race out of tomorrow, by somewhere in the range of 50 to 100 delegates of those pledged tomorrow. This would give her an overall lead in the delegate race, which she currently trails by 15 to Obama. While I wouldn't be shocked to see her lead on February 6 smaller than that, I would be quite surprised if Obama were able to maintain his pledged delegate lead or even extend it tomorrow.

That's how I see things. What do you think the tally will look like tomorrow? Clinton by 100+? Clinton by less than 100? Obama by less than 100? Obama by 100+? Let us know in the comments and let us know in the poll in the extended entry.

Poll below:

Poll

Votes: 67
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Tags: Super Tuesday (all tags)

Permalink :: 46 Comments :: Post a Comment

Delegate Race tied after Tsunami Tuesday (none / 0)

I think Clinton will win the delegate race on Tsunami Tuesday. We will find out (probably on Wednesday night) that Clinton won by like 20 delegates, which means they will be virtually tied. As I said in an earlier thread, a tie is a win for the Obama campaign. While the media is pulling back on Clinton being the front runner a little today they aren't getting to the full reversal that they did before NH.

by Obama08 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:26:04 PM EST

Fundraising (none / 0)

Another reason why a tie is a win tomorrow, fundraising.

In January, according to the reports I've seen. Obama raised 32 million dollars whereas Clinton has raised "at least 10 million dollars." Obama's biggest fundraising day was the day after losing New Hampshire.

Following a close loss/tie tomorrow Obama will have a huge fundraising day. Clinton will not. That will begin to matter moving through the rest of the nomination process.

by Obama08 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

HRC WINS New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Obama WINS: Idaho, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota and Illinois.

HRC LEANS - CA, MA, MO

DON'T KNOW Does not matter: Connecticut, Democrats Abroad, Arizona, Delaware, Utah, American Samoa, Alaska,

by bayareasg on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:27:40 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (2.00 / 1)

I think it will be so close that Clinton and Obama ought to announce a joint ticket tomorrow no matter what the outcome. Flip a coin for Pres vs VP slot, and agree to reverse it in 4 years.

I think a brokered convention would be a disaster, and that is where we are heading.

by ocli on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:33:24 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

CA - New Survey USA poll

HRC leads BO by 12

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtPopup.aspx?g=5fb08a99-97a2-4e13-a586-d 2ed83c3ceea&q=45558

by indus on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:36:19 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

And others show Obama with a slight lead... THey are all over the place and SUSA has been middle of the pack this year (this according to the front page scorecard on their site). I think Hillary wins Cali, but by a close margin which is a "win" for Obama. The closer to even he gets in Cali the better the night is for him.

by yitbos96bb on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

This is the actual poll, with full details ...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=5fb08a99-97a2-4e13-a586-d2ed83 c3ceea&q=45558

... a salient point ...

Among those who have already voted, Clinton leads by 12.

by kristoph on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:03:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Big weakness in the SUSA poll: 27% Hispanics, whereas in 2004 the number was 16%. SUSA is pitching HRC's lead too high by about 3% - so down to 9%.

Note that the Field poll, which like SUSA shows identical margins between mail-in and in-person voting, has a 52/48 female/male ratio, while SUSA has 58/42, which is much closer to expectations.

Blend these surveys' data points into a model turnout replicating CA voting demographics and female turnout in the 2008 primaries, and both surveys spit out a Clinton lead between 6% and 9%.

What I wouldn't give to see Rasmussen's internals :)

by Nordicus on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

After Tomorrow (none / 0)

If Obama loses by <100 tomorrow, Obama wins the nomination - the terrain post-2/5 is too favorable for him.

Hillary needs not just to win, but to win pretty strongly, to stay in this thing. If she wins by >200, she's in very good shape; if she wins by >150, pretty good shape. <150, and it leans Obama.

by RT on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:46:00 PM EST

That's Spin (none / 0)

Obama's own campaign just drew a line in the sand: 100 delegates. If Clinton gets more, Obama will have lost by his own standards.

by rcipw on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:05:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the superdelegates can abandon her (none / 0)

in a split-second. Most of them committed when it looked like she was inevitable.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:46:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the superdelegates can abandon her (none / 0)

I think it's Hillary. This is not my original thought, but one that bears repeating - could the Dem party actually consider nominating a candidate who could not win NY, CA, FL, MI, MO, and OH? Core states and key swing states? The first five are almost certainly a lock for Hillary, the last is leaning her way as of recent polling. Wouldn't it be general election suicide to nominate a guy who couldn't win the states that will be crucial to our GE win? Turnout will be crucial to our general election strategy, and we need a nominee who has generated big turnout in swing states (FL, MO, and OH included). The superdelegates are not likely to miss that point.

by milton333 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the superdelegates can abandon her (none / 0)

If a Democratic candidate cannot win CA, NY, FL, MI, and OH we should not nominate them. You have not proven that this is the case for either of our candidates. Barack Obama is better equipped to compete across the country, ask all the red state officials who have endorsed him.

In Idaho, 14,000 people came out to see Obama. Will Hillary ever be able to achieve that?

by Obama08 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:15:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the superdelegates can abandon her (none / 0)

In order for a democratic president to be elected, she or he needs to win FL, PA and/or OH. Clinton won FL by a wide margin and she will certainly win PA.

Although Idaho may matter congressionally, its irrelevant from a presidential politics perspective.

Make no mistake, if tomorrow there is no clear front runner, Dean will be on the phone trying to put together a Clinton/Obama or an Obama/Clinton ticket.

Hopefully, he'll succeed eventually.

by kristoph on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:26:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the superdelegates can abandon her (none / 0)

At this point there is NO way for us to know who will perform better in the fall. There are so many factors between now and November that saying "so and so will win" or "so and so has no chance" is ridiculous.

Clinton won in Florida, though late breaking voters preferred Obama. There is little reason to posit that either of our candidates wouldn't be able to win come November. The Idaho reference was to say that Obama is able to play in places that Democrats generally can't, that is the 50 state strategy.

by Obama08 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Didn't Hillary win MI & FL? (2.00 / 1)

And don't come trotting out that "but Obama didn't campaign in those states" line.

As you said, if a Democratic candidate cannot win CA,NY,FL,MI, and OH we should not nominate the.

Hillary has already won two of those five states. When can we expect your screen name to change from "Obama08" to Hillary08?

by andrewalker08 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Didn't Hillary win MI & FL? (none / 0)

Interesting, I thought she won them in the primary, does that mean he won't be able to win them in the General? If a Democratic candidate can't win those states IN THE FALL we should not nominate them. Unfortunately, we cannot know at this point who can win where.

Given that Obama has higher favorables among independents and Republicans, it would suggest that maybe he would be more competitive.

by Obama08 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Didn't Hillary win MI & FL? (none / 0)

This is completely ludicrous. Not only did Obama not campaign in Michigan, his name was not even on the ballot. The big story out of Michigan is that Hillary didn't win 80-90% of the vote when she was the only one on the ballot.

by keatsheart on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Not that it's a big delegate state, but Utah should be in the Obama column. I saw a Deseret Morning News poll that showed him with a 24 point lead.

by Chili Dogg on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:47:01 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

The internal polls show him with only a 6% advantage.

Their hoping for a 1 delegate net pickup from there.

by kristoph on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:40:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Is Massachusetts really a tossup? Clinton's lead has been shrinking (there and everywhere), but I didn't think her 20 or 30 point lead had been that whittled down.

At OpenLeft, I think it was Chris Bowers who mentioned that the voters in Alaska tend to be more make, so Obama probably has somewhat of an advantage there.

And have there been any polls on North Dakota?

by Nautilator on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:53:50 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

I agree. MA is still trending very strong Clinton (20 to 30 points is right).

I think it will be a good state to watch tomorrow night because it is on the east coast so we will have early returns hours before California.

Plus, it is the home state of the Kennedys, and we can see how much of an Obama/Kennedy surge there is, and overall how Obama is over performing or under performing the polls.

Of course, this is where the national primary will get hard to analyze quickly -- it is not actually national, but 22 very different states.

by rcipw on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Obama has three offices in ND, legis endorsements, Senator Conrad, and Rep. Pomeroy. He is the only one who paid attention, outside of some Edwards endorsements and the fact that it is a caucus will help him.

by danIA on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 07:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Tom Daschle and most of his team helped Obama get started on this run. I'm sure Obama will do well in ND.

by souvarine on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:01:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

HRC by +125 delegates over Obama. Hispanics often ignored in polls will be the difference.

by Opandora on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 04:53:57 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Also, she's in it to win it.

by BingoL on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Hillary wins MA, CA, MO, OK, NY, AR, TN, NM, AZ

Barack wins AL, IL, CT, UT, ID, GA, MN, CO, KS, ND, AK, DE

The mathematicians among us can work out the delegate count - my best guess is Clinton ahead by around 100. I think we are headed for a Clinton/Obama ticket - I see no other way of keeping the party united and in with a chance of winning in November.

Romney is gonna pull a shocker and win in California and many more places than people expect.

by conspiracy on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:10:04 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

I'd like a Clinton/Obama ticket, but I don't see it as important to party unity. He doesn't win Democrats, and he says his supporters are more likely to be iffy about the Democratic nominee.

What about NJ?

by souvarine on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Exactly. That is my point. She is going to need him and his supporters to beat McCain. They are the people most likely to take their ball home in a huff. NJ to Hillary. Thanks for pointing out the omission.

by conspiracy on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Obama would be crazy to take the VP slot.

Actually, pretty much any Dem would be, with Bill in the WH.

by mainelib on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:13:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Then expect President McCain.

by conspiracy on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

There might be an advantage in November to a Clinton/Obama ticket, but Obama would have to do a whole lot of fence mending to preserve party unity. He has really alienated many core Democrats.

As you point out his independent support is pretty soft. If Obama is the nominee his soft supporters are just as likely to go McCain, once the Republicans are done him .

by souvarine on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

8 years is plenty of time to mend many a fence.

by kristoph on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"wine TRack" (none / 0)

I live in the bay area and the voting in this area is not going to be high. So if the turn out in SOCAL is large HRC wins CA just like Regan won CA despite the bay area.

by bayareasg on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:16:06 PM EST

Re: "wine TRack" (none / 0)

what makes you think the voiting won't be high here in the Bay area?

by gabejack on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Considering the lead Clinton held not long ago, a close race is an Obama win and will give him wins in the 4 contests this coming weekend and the 3 the following weekend. He will also raise quite a bit more money than HRC.

by mainelib on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:26:34 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

According to SurveyUSA, Clinton's lead in CA is similar to that of hers in NY!

by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:43:28 PM EST

Kos managing expecations (none / 0)

Kos just posted telling folks to calm down about Obama a little bit.

by rcipw on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:51:49 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Clinton: NY, NJ, MA, CT, MO, MN, OK, AR, TN, NM, AZ
Obama: IL, UT, ID, GA, CO, KS, ND, AK, DE, AL

I know CT is polling for Obama but he has had so much positive press that if he does not have a clear lead I don't see him winning.

Clinton +90

by kristoph on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 05:52:59 PM EST

My Predictions (none / 0)

Clinton:
AK, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, KS, MA, ND, NJ, NY, OK, TN UT

Obama:
AL, GA, ID, IL, MN, MO, NM

Clinton 35 delegates.

by rcipw on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:00:20 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

FINAL PREDICTION

(Calm down, Zeitgeist, it's not like it's Doomsday!)

HILLARY WILL WIN
Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (COLL-O-RAD-O), Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Minnesota (donchaknow?), Missouri (MI-SUR-A), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee (TUN-EH-SEE)

OBAMA WILL WIN
Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, North Dakota, Utah

by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:01:57 PM EST

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

Oh, Clinton +100

by Zeitgeist9000 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:02:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

HRC +75-80--she pulls out a narrow win win in California, but Obama is still in the game.

This race reminds me a lot of the 1976 GOP battle between Ford and Reagan. Our chances in the fall depend on if HRC and BHO can patch things up.

Obama has the edge for the rest of February, but he must catch up in Texas and Ohio.

by mikelow1885 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:09:47 PM EST

As a CA absentee ballot voter, I take (none / 0)

exception to HRC "padding" with early votes. Lots of people vote permanent absentee in CA. No explanation needed, just sign the form.

by oculus on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:11:14 PM EST

Re: As a CA absentee ballot voter, I take (none / 0)

Sure, voting absentee is convenient, but why vote weeks ahead of time? New information may come out. Your candidate might have dropped out by the time the primary date arrives, and your vote will be wasted. What's the advantage of voting so early?

DC Drinking Liberally • DC for Democracy

by KCinDC on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 06:59:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Expectations for Tomorrow (none / 0)

HRC: NY, NJ, CT, TEN, NM, OKLA, ARK, ARI

OBAMA: IL, GA, CO, MIN, KS, AL, ND, MA, MO, UT, DE, Abroad

Too close to call: CA (but with OBAMA picking up a 8-10 delegate lead in the state).

Overall: Obama by 35-50.

by alchemi on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 09:54:16 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.