California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday

by Jonathan Singer, Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:33:41 PM EST

Three new polls out of California, and three different results:

Field Poll (.pdf)Mason-DixonZogby
Clinton364541
Obama343645

From this mess of numbers, one thing stands out: Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama has put California away. For a period in time so close to election day, the proportion of Democratic voters remaining undecided -- or at least telling pollsters that they are undecided -- is rather remarkable. This is a very fluid race in California, as it seems to be across the country. While we might have had some inklings as to what was going to happen in the first four contests (even if those inklings proved ultimately to be incorrect), it's hard, at least for me, to come to the conclusion that either candidate is genuinely a frontrunner going into Tuesday, either around the country or specifically in California.




Tags: California, California Primary, Democratic Primaries (all tags)

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A fourth. (2.00 / 1)

Rasmussen:
Obama 45, Clinton 44
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/california/election_20 08_california_democratic_presidential_pr imary
by Ramo on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:35:39 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Gobama!


by mecarr on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:38:04 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (1.50 / 2)

The force is with Obama. People beginning to show their adversity toward another eight years of Bill Clinton and company, and of course, Hillary.

And they are beginning as well to look at the legacy of the first Clinton administration and realizing it was nothing more than a continuation of Republican politics. That's what happens when your genius is stealing the opponent's positions: you become like them.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:00:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

I would be anticipating what your reaction would be when actual votes are counted.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Do any of these California polls take into account the early voting?


by mecarr on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:39:08 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

They all claim to.  How effective they are is a separate question.  I guess someone who has already voted is technically a "likely voter."


by Drummond on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:14:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

yeah but according to the field poll Obama leads by 1 (32 to 31) amongst early mail in voters. not what I expected:  http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/sub scribers/Rls2264.pdf

from the article: http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/ 2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html

"For those who have surmised that Obama may have a steep road to go up because of early vote by mail voters, consider this: Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton--hardly decisive at all."


by rapcetera on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Interesting. I always heard Hillary had like a 25% advantage among those who voted earlier. However, I heard this several weeks ago. Perhaps those who have voted since then have voted for Obama by a wide margin.


by mecarr on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 05:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Yes they do.


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:42:43 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Yes, they do, and according to the Field Poll analysis by Frank Russo, the early voting has Obama up 1:
"Amongst all mail ballot voters who have or are expected to vote, the results are 32% Obama and 31% Clinton--hardly decisive at all."

http://www.californiaprogressreport.com/ 2008/02/analysis_of_cal.html


by along on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:48:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Her campaign is worried.  Check out the LA Times political blog -- big time, unidentified push polling robocalls.

Unlike the anti-Edwards robocalls, this one doesn't identify a candidate.


by ChrisR on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:44:12 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Because of the way the democratic party distributes the delegates by district, do we even know what these polls mean anyway?


by AnnC on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:47:28 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

You're right, and in fact, it really doesn't matter on Tuesday what states a candidate "wins."  That matters for the other primaries where there's only one or two states on a given date, but on Tuesday it's delegates which count.


by Drummond on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

You're right that it doesn't matter in terms of delegates--which is the real battle.  But winning CA would matter in terms of perception and the spin that grows out of Super Tuesday.  And we all know that narrative and spin can play a significant role in determining who has momentum and the power to win future primaries.


by jmaki on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:49:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Early Voting (none / 0)

I think the Obama campaign is in a bit of a bind when it comes to spinning California. Even if he does really well on Tuesday, I don't think he'll manage to win the state overall because of early voting. But with all the emphasis on "This is a delegate race now," it's hard to point to polls saying that you "won" the state on Super Tuesday if you lose the overall delegate count.

If anything, they'll comment on momentum ("We came back from 20 points behind...") and then play up their other victories more than California. I think that's a big reason why Obama himself has stayed away from California lately. There's no way he can win the state in the frame he's been pushing (delegate race), so he doesn't want to look like he was working hard to win it. Expect lots of spin like "We won across the country, from Georgia to Colorado" and very little about California.

Clinton, meanwhile, gets to have a magnified delegate count from early voting, even if she loses the vote on Feb. 5. She gets a media momentum boost she might not actually deserve.

Now, if Obama manages to actually win the delegate count, in spite of early voting, that'll be an amazing accomplishment!


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:49:23 PM EST

Huh (none / 0)

I just saw the comments above saying that Obama and Clinton are even in early voting. I guess that means everything I just said was wrong.

Eh, such is life.


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huh (none / 0)

other polls last week reported higher mail voting numbers for Clinton. And they could have been correct--a snapshot of ballots cast up to that time.

The Field Poll was conducted over seven days, "between Friday January 25 and Friday February 1." So it allows for even more late mail voting, which could certainly be trending Obama.


by along on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 02:58:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huh (none / 0)

a lot more great early voting info from The Field, my new favorite blog:
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=428
by along on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:05:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Huh (none / 0)

Obviously the early voting tends to be done by those who feel strongly enough to pay attention early.  That selects for the stronger supporters of both candidates.

The only issue is whether whether they can filter out early Edwards voters.


by Drummond on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:17:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Hillary will win California by at least 10--follow the real people model in Florida, not what the MSM is desperately trying to do on  behalf of Obama.  

Over half have already voted--if she was leading in those polls by twenty to thirty points then, there is no way Obama can match her with new voters.

This is a last gasp of media pro-Obama spin.  Go by the national numbers--all have her ahead, some more so than others, and several by double digits.  California will reflect that reality.


by lambros on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:06:25 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Obama has actually outperformed all of the polls so far except in New Hampshire.


by Drummond on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Dear Lambros,

You are missing something. There is actual campaigning going on in California. Florida was name recognition only.  Hillary enjoys a massive advantage in that area, in case you don't know.

Unless you have real information, it's better to just read the comments.

I have no idea who will win CA on Tuesday and you don't either.

Best of luck to your candidate on Tuesday.


by cswartout on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Did you just say FL and REAL?????  A state where nobody campaigned in?  LOL.....  


by Chavez100 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:55:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Latinos Ignored Again (none / 0)

Remember Vegas? Nobody was talking too much about Latinos then and they turned in droves for Clinton.

Obama hype ends Tuesday.


by padcrasher on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:21:10 PM EST

Re: Latinos Ignored Again (none / 0)

just like all the young white people who aren't supposed to vote and vote for a black man.....ouch SC was a wake up call eh?


by Chavez100 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not sure. . . (none / 0)

. . . what you mean by this. According to CNN's exit poll data for South Carolina, Non-Black (CNN's terminology) young people (ages 18 to 29) made up only 5% of the total electorate in the Democratic primary. These voters split 52% for Obama, 27% for Hillary, and 21% for Edwards.

So, I don't think there was any great turn out of "the young white people" in South Carolina. And those that did vote, while providing Obama's only majority among Non-Blacks, did not vote  overwhelmingly for him, nor did they have any meaningful impact on the election. In fact, since Obama won 55% of the total vote, and only 52% of the young Non-Black voters, he actually would have won by a higher percentage if they hadn't voted at all.

Again, I may be misinterpreting you. Where do you see an "ouch" or a "wake up call" with regards to young white voters in South Carolina?


by freemansfarm on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Hillary looses CA its over (none / 0)

I doubt Hillary can bounce back from a loss in CA. Obama has all the reporters and pundits in his pocket so the MEDIA spin will be if you cannot win CA how can you win in the General. I will tend to agree to even James C agrees.

BTW my gut being in CA is it will be close but it will go to HRC by a couple of points.


by bayareasg on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:23:45 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

I'll make the call. Obama wins California by a small margin. Why? The last two weeks has been momentum filled for Obama, that means more absentee voters for him. Two, new voters favor Obama as we have seen in the past and according recent press releases, there has been a huge number of new voter registrations.

Will he win more delegates than Clinton? Possibly. Will it mean the end of the Clinton campaign possibly.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:35:20 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

And a fifth poll:

ARG (Feb. 1-2
Clinton: 47
Obama: 39

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/ cadem8-704.html


by markjay on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:38:29 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Why are we still posting numbers from ARG?


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:45:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

maybe because they have been as accurate as the rasmussen and mason dixon polls have been through this election cycle.

So if the numbers from these outfits can be posted considering the track record in the early states , i say why not post ARG polls


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:54:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Rasmussen and Zogby has been way more accurate than ARG. Come on.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:01:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Zogby. . . (none / 0)

. . .is a joke. He is rated last among the polls as judged by the pollsters themselves.


by freemansfarm on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:26:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A sixth (none / 0)

Rassmussen,
Obama 45, Clinton 44
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/california/election_20 08_california_democratic_presidential_pr imary

Maybe ARG will get lucky and be within the MOE for once.  They are 0 for 5 thus far.  


by fladem on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not a Sixth (none / 0)

That poll has already posted in this diary.


by Tove on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:17:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

I have to second that.  There are so many blogs talking about California being too close to call today...but making calls for Obama yesterday I definitely found a lot of people that had unfortunately voted EARLY for Hillary.  So even if Obama pulls in the same vote as Hillary on election day, Hillary would probably still take the state....

Of course, nonetheless the delegate count will be close...but it's a big media story...


Scott Goldstein scottforamerica@gmail.com www.scottforamerica.com
by scottforamerica on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:43:52 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

First- early voting may save Hillary.

Second-- ignoring early voting, anyone who hasn't yet made up their mind will likely go with Obama.


Would you hire George W Bush to be YOUR latex salesman?
by jgkojak on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:51:03 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Pollsters are not that stupid. They have taken into account early voting.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:54:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I believe some polls (none / 0)

but not ones that don't make sense
like

36 34

No way that many undecided.

I don't believe zogby either.

JUST SO PEOLE KNOW, it's not just anti-hillary,

IA has Hillary up 20 in tenn.
I don't believe it
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/sundayTNDem.html

I'm using common sense + other polls + history


by yellowdem1129 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 03:58:06 PM EST

Re: I believe some polls (none / 0)

Yeah, the Field Poll numbers are too depressed to be seen as anything approaching accurate this close to voting day!  Both candidates in the mid 30s.  I guess the other voters are too sleepy to make up their minds....


by Zeitgeist9000 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 06:52:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Feild Poll (none / 0)

I don't know anything about the Field poll but frequently local polls are more accurate than out of state polls. Field is from California.


by del on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 07:06:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McClatchy poll. . . (none / 0)

. . .today has Clinton leading in California 45% to 36%.


by freemansfarm on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:30:21 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

People who make up their minds the last day have broken for Clinton in every contest so far, a lot of undecideds will vote for Hillary in the booth


by rossinatl on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 04:41:39 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

Don't forget that California is an open primary which could help obama. I say it is an open primary becuase I heard a guest on ABC's This Week mention it. I have not verified it though.


by mecarr on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 05:21:21 PM EST

Re: California Sure Looks in Play for Tuesday (none / 0)

It is a "semi-open" primary. Voters with no party affiliation may ask for a Democratic ballot when they go in to vote -- but it is not supposed to be offered to them. (The Republicans don't allow this).

The California Democratic Party has been using a publicity and direct mail campaign to let unaffiliated voters know about this.

About 20% of California voters are DTS ("decline to state") in party registration. So it probably does help Obama.


by lifelongdem on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 06:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

semi open really helps Obama (none / 0)

Think about this, usually the open primaries split the indies with McCain. Not this time, Obama will get a big push since none of the indie will go to McCain.


by del on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 07:09:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i might have to start attacking (none / 0)

obama again.

Every poll with a 2/2 field day in it has the race for Obama by a small amount.

I think with the early votes and the gotv Hillary should stil win, but we need to get the MOmemtum.

I'll hold my powder dry for now.


by yellowdem1129 on Sun Feb 03, 2008 at 06:17:12 PM EST


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