CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE

A rumor is spreading through DC (my town) like wildfire from high ranking sources:

Hillary Clinton will avoid humiliation and drop out this Friday, FEBRUARY 29th.

Suddenly, on Intrade, shares of "Dropout.Feb08.Clinton" have surged almost 800%.

Is that a result of the rumors or is someone in the know putting their money where their mouth is?

Intrade right now:

Last: 14.9 (up +12.9)
Ask: 35.0

Drudge hasn't picked it up, and usually that's a good sign that it's not true (since Drudge would run it even if it weren't true). But this is still an interesting turn of events.

I wouldn't blame Hillary Clinton for avoiding the humiliation of a devastating final defeat at the hands of a political neophyte. It would be the best thing for both her party, and her.

UPDATE: IT'S UP TO 35.0!!! That means there's a 35% chance that she's going to drop out BY THIS FRIDAY!!!

UPDATE #2: WOAH. Someone else hears the same thing!!!

Clinton to drop out Friday?



Display:


Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29" (1.75 / 4)

Hillary has read the writing on the wall and decided its time to unite, not divide the party in a long contentious battle all the way to the convention.   Good for her.


by soros on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:55:12 PM EST

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29" (none / 0)

This is just speculation.  I seriously doubt she will drop out before Tuesday.  If she wins both OH & TX by a fairly clear margin, which is not entirely out of the realm of possibility at this piont, she still has a legitimate campaign.  If she loses both, she'll be out either Tuesday night or Wednesday.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:59:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: a fairly clear margin,? (2.00 / 1)

That's right.


by americanincanada on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:27:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

well.. (2.00 / 1)

a one vote win in TX probably means a net gain of a dozen delegates by Obama, which isn't really a win at all.


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:48:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL (2.00 / 1)

This is the most insane thing I have ever read. She will not drop out before Texas and Ohio. she has just opened offices in Wyoming today.

LMAO


by americanincanada on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:57:51 PM EST

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL (2.00 / 1)

I don't know...it's up to 35.0 now!!!


by pastor john on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 04:59:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL (2.00 / 0)

WOW...realy?!?!? /sarcasm


by americanincanada on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:07:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL (none / 0)

When you look at prediction markets you have to note the volumes, at 713 this one is very low.  $1000 would change the odds dramatically, if I understand they're betting methods correctly.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's spelled (none / 0)

whoa.


Our long national nightmare is over.
by Beltway Dem on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

River103 (none / 0)

Snark is no reason to troll rate someone, please read the rules.
Do not troll rate (rating as 0) another user's comment unless it is a comment that violates one of the guidelines. Abusing this privilege will result in all your ratings being erased and/or getting a warning or being banned.

Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 07:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29 LOL (none / 0)

You realize, don't you, that these prediction markets are just that...predictions. They have no determining factor in what actually happens...

It could go to 99.9999999996 percent and that is just the result of people betting; it in no way increases the liklihood of the event actually happening.


by arkansasdemocrat on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 08:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Makes absolutely no sense. (2.00 / 2)

I call bullshit.

There is no logical reason for her to drop out before Tuesday. None.

Even if she were to lose both contests, she could still gracefully bow out after Texas and Ohio.

I think this report is baloney.


by Bob Johnson on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:05:59 PM EST

Re: wow. look at me giving a mojo to bob johnson (2.00 / 1)

It's a ridiculous assertion. There is absolutely no reason for Clinton to drop out at this point.


by Bob Johnson on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:41:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29" (2.00 / 2)

Just goes to show you how little the folks on Intrade know what they are talking about. Its wishful thinking, pure and simple.
 
by Scan on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:21:27 PM EST

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29" (none / 0)

She won't withdraw until after March 4.  However, it is highly likely she withdraws before Mississippi and Wyoming vote the next week, assuming poll trends hold and Obama wins Texas and ties Ohio.


by Skaje on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:28:42 PM EST

Re: "HRC to Drop Out Before 2-29" (none / 0)

That's a pretty big assumption but I respect the fact that you don't buy into this 'story' of her getting out now.


by americanincanada on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:32:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:HRC To Drop Out Before 2-29 (2.00 / 1)

Don't you just love the smell of pure capitalism at work? Especially when it feeds on the democratic political process.  

Since we are advocating political execution by markets, if the stock market drops 500 points or more while we are in the midst of an Obama Presidency, will you require him to resign? After al,l like all presidencies, the Obama bubble will burst, its only a matter of when. Be careful what you advocate, it may well come back to haunt your candidate.


by superetendar on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:36:34 PM EST

Highly doubt it... (2.00 / 1)

Don't see this happening at all.  While it's almost impossible for her to win the nomination right now, she may as well ride it out until OH and TX just in case she gets another surprise win like NH.


by leshrac55 on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 05:45:25 PM EST

Re: Don't Think So (none / 0)

How is this damaging?


by pastor john on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:00:56 PM EST

In fact - (none / 0)

I'm pretty confident that that is exactly what this rumor-mongering is meant to do.  It's pretty transparent.  


by mgee on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:19:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Think So (none / 0)

Ha - you think? In that case, I'm all about this diary!


by pastor john on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 07:57:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't Think So (none / 0)

Just to be rational - no candidate stops their campaign before they actually stop their campaign. There could be an office opening on the same day she drops out - that would not be surprising or strange.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:07:20 PM EST

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

Why am I getting a feeling that you have a position on this deal?

Pump-and-dump, perhaps?


by Bob Johnson on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:23:08 PM EST

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

You guys are Hillaryous!

You just Hope she will.


by Fleaflicker on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 06:43:56 PM EST

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

Hillary has a large enough army of supporters, willing to stick with her until the convention. And beyond. There is no reason to drop out.


by DaleA on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 07:01:37 PM EST

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

Beyond the convention?  To where?  The Connecticut For Lieberman convention?


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 07:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

2012 perhaps. She has a large and loyal following, probably more than any other Democrat among Democrats.


by DaleA on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 08:12:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

2012?  Trying to primary a sitting President is definitely bad form.  Or do you mean her 2012 Senate race?


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 08:15:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

Although I hope the democratic nominee will win the general election it's by no means certain.

And even if Obama would win it also isn't certain that he would run again in 2012, for whatever reason.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 06:53:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

This has to be rumor.  First of all, there are other candidates and maybe referendum issues which might suffer if she drops out.  And the money is pretty much spent.  If she loses, she can drop out after Tuesday.  Even Obama benefits from another few days of shutting McCain out of the headlines.  Plus, if he has to agree to the public financing for the GE, he might as well talk Clinton into keeping the campaign going until Pennsylvania where he can use the money raised for the primary to tour the country.  Hell, maybe he ought to finance her campaign at that point!


by Drummond on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 07:38:10 PM EST

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

There's no way Obama will agree to public financing when he has the ability to raise a billion dollars in private financing.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 08:16:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CLINTON TO DROP OUT FRI ? UPDATE (none / 0)

...from high ranking sources

The silliest part of this rediculous diary is that you reference "high ranking sources" and then only cite DailyKos, a refuge for Obama hacks.


by arkansasdemocrat on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 08:51:28 PM EST

No way (none / 0)

IF she lost badly in both Ohio and Texas, she still wouldn't drop out for at least a week or two.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 09:54:38 PM EST

Re: No way (none / 0)

Not a chance in hell.  She's out if she loses both.  


by yitbos96bb on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 10:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I heard a rumor that obama was a muslim!!! (none / 0)

and he's announcing the truth on Friday.


by nikkid on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 12:03:29 AM EST

Re: I heard a rumor that obama was a muslim!!! (none / 0)

This is a load of rubbish. No way she drops out before TX and OHIO. But the rumor came from a guy named Jay Severin on 96.9FM in Boston.


"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."
by fugazi on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 12:50:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stay classy (2.00 / 0)

"rag hat" = xenophobic racist comment.
Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!
by John in Chicago on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 11:55:45 AM EST


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