MyDD :: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotline/Diageo National Polls

Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotline/Diageo National Polls

by Todd Beeton, Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:21:23 PM EST

Just barely, but still, interesting all the same to the extent that these numbers run so drastically counter to the general sense of a steamroll toward an Obama nomination.

First the Gallup tracking poll, which shows Clinton gaining a net 6 points since yesterday's results and a total of 8 points since Obama's peak in the aftermath of the Potomac primaries. Recent trend below.

	2/18-20	2/17-19	2/16-18	2/15-17
Clinton	45	42	45	42
Obama	44	47	46	49

Gallup is not alone; the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll shows Obama having gone from a 12 point post-February 12th lead over Clinton to a 5 point lead today.

As for the latest Hotline/Diageo poll Jonathan linked to earlier, it was originally reported that it was Obama up two over Clinton; it's actually the other way around:

In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, which surveyed 803 registered voters between February 14 and 17, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45-43% among Dem primary voters, with 7% undecided.

Essentially all these numbers are telling us this is a tie nationally, a conclusion confirmed by the latest Fox News poll, which shows Clinton and Obama in a deadlock at 44% each. But let's face it, it's not supposed to be a tie; this is now Obama's to lose, his momentum is supposed to be unstoppable. So why isn't he running away with this?

It is important to note, of course, that most of this polling was taken prior to Obama's Wisconsin and Hawaii wins, but considering the news for Clinton can only get better from here with two debates in the next 5 days, she's got to be happy to see that, in the national numbers anyway, she's actually not starting at a deficit at all. Now let's see if those Texas and Ohio numbers start to go her way as well...

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 83 Comments :: Post a Comment

Obama reached his ceiling? (none / 0)

Just asking.

by Scan on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:47:50 PM EST

Today's WaPo/ABC Poll on TX & OH (none / 0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2008/02/21/AR2008022102097. html?hpid=topnews

Clinton, Obama Deadlocked in Texas, Poll Shows

In Ohio, Clinton leads Obama in the new poll by 50 percent to 43 percent, a significant but tenuous advantage given the shifts that have taken place elsewhere as candidates intensified their campaigns in advance of previous primaries. In Texas, the race is even, with Clinton at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

That answer the diarist's questions?

by Ajax the Greater on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:47:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

Exit polls go up and down from day to day. Usually the changes are within the polls' own margin of error. But these polls really have little significance because they don't show anywhere near the margin Hillary would need to make her improbable comeback.

Go back to Hussein Texas

by gobacktotexas on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:48:23 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

with 11 wins you better be worried obama is still tied with clinton.

those that are digging her grave like yourself might be shocked at the end of the day.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:51:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

Okay, polls are showing Hillary about even with Obama now in Texas, just slightly ahead, and ahead by a bit more in Ohio. How does she turn that into a 25 point margin and then follow that up by winning all upcoming states by similar margins?

Go back to Hussein Texas

by gobacktotexas on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has NY, CA and FL (1.00 / 0)

"everyone knows"

Source: Your own ass, I'm sure

UNITY!

by The Great Gatsby on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has NY, CA and FL (none / 0)

That was rude. My apologies.

But in seriousness, "everyone knows" is a pretty useless supporting argument. Republicans may be voting for Obama, but so are independents, in droves.

And whoever wins the Independents wins the election, historically.

UNITY!

by The Great Gatsby on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:39:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has NY, CA and FL (none / 0)

You're going to have to provide a cite for that BS. I see you've completely fallen for Penn's "big state" spin.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:40:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She has NY, CA and FL (none / 0)

Have you been paying attention to the delegate math? Under proportional representation, who "wins" a state is meaningless. It's who gets the most delegates. In the states you cite, Obama split the delegates with Hillary. But Obama won several states with decisive margins over Hillary, allowing him to clean up the delegates. At this point, for Hillary to make up the delegate gap, she would need to start winning very large margins particularly in TX and OH. We're talking 25 points here.

And even though it is highly unlikely Florida will be seated if it is decisive, it is in fact not. Obama is even ahead with Florida (and MI), and he is even ahead with the popular vote, including Fl and MI.

Go back to Hussein Texas

by gobacktotexas on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (2.00 / 1)

And you should wonder why if she's ahead she just can't stop losing?

by Socraticsilence on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (2.00 / 1)

Why? Does Gallup exclude people from states that have already voted? If not, isn't this poll meaningless?

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (2.00 / 2)

That's one theory, though probably not the correct one.

Just a reminder, Obama being tied is a very big departure from where he he's been during the rest of the race:

In a divided primary, it's possible that he's nearing his ceiling. On the other hand, if turnout for any of his key demographics (young or black voters) is out of proportion from what Gallup is polling, the actual contests will look much different.

Obama's shown a tendency to start weak in states and then get closer and even OVERCOME Hillary. We're seeing that already in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Even if the polls don't bear it out, the conventional wisdom is that Obama is a steamroller. If he keeps it close on March 4th, that notion won't go away, and the superdelegates won't go against the conventional wisdom.

UNITY!

by The Great Gatsby on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

'Houston, we have lift-off...' A picture is worth a thousand words and in this case the less sensitive analysis of Pollster really tells the story.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She aint gonna win TX, maybe not OH either (none / 0)

Today's WaPo/ABC poll:

In Texas, the race is even, with Clinton at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

by Ajax the Greater on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:49:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (2.00 / 1)

Anyone who thinks she would drop out before texas and ohio better put down what they are drinking.

with 11 loses obama still can't pull away.

shows you her strength among democrats.

If she wins Texas and Ohio the numbers could conceiveably move back in her favor.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:49:13 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Even if she 'win' Ohio and Texas, it's not going to give her the delegate vote margins to get back in the game unless she does it 60-40 or better and it is the beginning of a series of landslides by similar margins, at a minimum.

Go back to Hussein Texas

by gobacktotexas on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (2.00 / 1)

Hillary needs to win both TX and OH by 65-35 margins to have any hope at all of capturing this nomination. That's not Obama boosterism, it's basic math.

Obama is ahead by 140-150 delegates. Proportional representation dampens the margin of victories. Hillary needs to win over 60% of the delegates in the three largest remaining states and all of the smaller states where Obama isn't massively ahead to get to where unelected delegates could even dream of overturning the Obama margin.

It's down to mathematical elimination. Hillary can be Mike Huckabee ("I majored in faith, not mathematics") or Karl Rove ("you may have math, but I have The Math"), but she cannot win against a huge margin of delegates for Obama.

So if you can't see a way for Hillary to win in TX by 65-35 and in OH by 65-35 simultaneously and then to go on and win PA 65-35 also, the you are concluding that Hillary is done. She's just sticking around for the fun of campaigning a few more weeks.

It's good for us though. Obama's OH turnout machine will get some practice before November.

Read Brian's Utah Weblog

by Brian Watkins on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

He can't spend this dough against McCain, friend. And if you want my guess, he is going to do a conditional public financing deal with McCain when Hillary drops out.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Clinton does not need 65% raw vote totals to win. She simply needs to win. It seems that Axelrod's fairy tale of Clinton needing to close the pledged delegate gap (excluding FL and MI) has proliferated in the Obama collective. These wins--no matter how narrowly--will be springboards to more decisive victories in the remaining primary states, most specifically Pennsylvania.

by Zeitgeist9000 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:28:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

If she wins narrowly in these three states, she would have momentum but nowhere near the votes need to overcome her 140 delegate gap, since Obaam would pick up roughly the same number of delgates she did. After PA, there aren't enough states left for her to pick up delegates to pass him, or get close.

She has to win big or else.

A PROUD Hopium user!

by xodus1914 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:39:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

The superdelegates are already starting to tip heavily for Obama. In the next two weeks, that trend is only going to continue. Even if she wins narrowly in Ohio and Texas, she's going to be way behind in pledged delegates, and her superdelegate advantage will be rapidly evaporating.

Do you really think that in that situation the superdelegates will choose to go with the candidate with fewer pledged delegates who is also polling worse against McCain? The fairytale is the idea that the superdelegates who haven't already endorsed have any good reason at all to give Clinton the nomination if she can't manage to even come close in pledged delegates.

by jlk7e on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

National polls are fantasy polls at this point (none / 0)

Wasn't Hillary leading Obama and Edwards by double digits when she came in third in Iowa?

Focus on state polls. They matter supremely.

by richochet on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:51:07 PM EST

Re: National polls are fantasy polls at this point (none / 0)

Yeah... when more than half the country has already voted it doesn't really matter what they think NOW.

by js noble on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

huh? (2.00 / 1)

But let's face it, it's not supposed to be a tie; this is now Obama's to lose, his momentum is supposed to be unstoppable. So why isn't he running away with this?

You mean, like, by winning 10 straight contests by greater than a 60-40 margin?

I'm not sure what polling of states that have already voted is supposed to tell us that matters.

by Adam B on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:52:30 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (2.00 / 1)

According to the Gallup site, the poll is based on a three-day average from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The news on Monday and Tuesday was dominated by the Michele Obama and "plagiarism" stories, and a Wisconsin-Hawaii bounce would only show up on Wednesday. I think we'll need to see these polls again over the next couple of days to see what is really going on with respect to that bounce.

by Dan Kervick on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:53:12 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

Well - in the meantime - Obama's campaign is urging Hillary to concede.
So apparently Obama isn't very confident.

Hillary/Obama08

by annefrank on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

McCain must not be very confident against Huckabee, either, by that reasoning. Not that I'm comparing Clinton to Huckabee, but your post is nonsense.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (2.00 / 1)

Unless Clinton pulls away more during today's polling (to be released tomorrow), this doesn't really show much of anything. This is, unfortunately, just one of the "flaws" in tracking polls... and you have the answer right in your post.

On 2/17, Obama had a very good day of polling (when he was ahead by 7), and on 2/18, Clinton had a very good day of polling (pulling to within 1). Today's results reflect the dropping of the very good Obama poll results and the last day of Clinton's very good results from 2/18.

If she maintains this tomorrow, then that may show some momentum towards her, but my guess is that it'll probably drop to another 5 point or so deficit to Obama (considering Obama's good day yesterday). And like today's poll, it will probably also be slightly skewed because it'll drop a huge day for Clinton and prop up a good day for Obama.

by leshrac55 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:55:02 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Given that 36 states have already voted, I think all the talk about momentum is getting really weird. Even talk about the national polls is a bit odd; most people have already had their chance to vote.

Screw momentum, it's just about who wins. And right now, Obama is winning.

by snaktime on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 04:57:14 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

I was wondering about that. CAN national polls even change that much? With 70% of the states having voted, wouldn't a good chunk of the respondents have already voted as well? Popular vote-wise things are pretty even. So I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that national polls reflect how the people have already voted. Right?

by crazymoloch on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

"but considering the news for Clinton can only get better from here with two debates in the next 5 days"

I have a feeling that there's gonna be a lot of disappointed Clinton die-hards after the debate tonight.

This whole "Hillary dominates debates" meme has grown louder and louder, even furthered by the negative attack ads Sen Clinton ran in Wisconsin claiming Sen Obama was afraid to debate since he had only seen fit to take part in a measly 18 debates so far.

But the problem is reality. In this magical land called reality, Hillary has never done any real damage to Obama in the debate setting (all 18 of them), and isn't likely to start now.

If she goes overtly negative in the debate, she looks desperate.

If she gets all policy wonkish, I'm quite certain the Harvard man can hang with her.

Really, the only way Hillary can do any real damage in this debate is if somehow Barack got a flustered and made a major, MAJOR gaffe. Which is about as likely as Dumbya announcing tomorrow that he will withdraw all troop from Iraq beginning immediately.

I guess what I'm trying to say in this streaming consciousness post is that I just don't see how the "Hillary pwns Barack in debates" CW is supported by reality....

Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!

by John in Chicago on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:06:19 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

You can't compare 17 debates with up to 8 candidates with debates between 2 candidates.
Obama knows that.

Hillary/Obama08

by annefrank on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Well, as you can see from the response of the democratic audience in TX when they booed Hillary's "Xerox" line, people are not fond of the type of attack politics that you and your firneds have been more than happy to advance.

Two riders were approaching......the wind begins to howl!

by John in Chicago on Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 10:01:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

And why would anyone care about national polls?

In Texas, Obama is maybe 4 points back. He is also gaining in Ohio.

He gained 3 superdelegates today, something like +22 since Super Tuesday over Clinton, and he has won major union endorsements. His campaign manager was in N. Carolina today at the office of John Edwards' former law partner.

He has raised tons of money from small donors and has good cash on hand, Clinton in debt.

National polls are pretty meaningless now - and they ain't bad for him!

by mainelib on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:07:04 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

After Edwards suspended his campaign, at least one of his former law partners endorsed Obama.

Hillary/Obama08

by annefrank on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is the poll accurate? (2.00 / 1)

the mistake you are making is thinking pledged delegates would decide the nomination.

in case you haven't noticed there is a magic number to reach to get the nomination and if obama doesn't get there and hillary doesn't get there.

Other factors would come into place to decide who gets the nomination , not necessarily pledged delegates that is obama's spin.

If he doesn't knock her out in Texas and Ohio , its a new ball game and all of this talk about pledged delegates would be part of the spin in denver.

So if he can pull away after 11 wins , he is tied in national numbers with hillary , in denver a significant number of democrats will want her to be nominee if not a majority if she turns it around in texas and ohio regardless of the spin of the pledged delegates regardless of how minute the number between them would be if she turns it around.

obama better win in texas or ohio

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:18:24 PM EST

Re: Is the poll accurate? (none / 0)

You're completely ignoring the fact that millions of people are going to be very angry with the Democratic political process if the superdelegates manufacture a win for either candidate. It's one thing to say that most Democrats would be happy with either (and they would), it's another to say that they would be happy about a candidate that they perceived, rightly or wrongly, cheated his/her way to the nomination.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is the poll accurate? (none / 0)

I'm praying the super delegates save us from Oblahma!

Hillary/Obama08

by annefrank on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is the poll accurate? (none / 0)

The only person that the superdelegates can save is McCain. A brokered convention would drive a stake through the party.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:42:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is the poll accurate? (none / 0)

In that case, you're praying for the resulting revolt that will effectively end the Democratic Party. If there is the even the perception (right or wrong) that the election was stolen from Obama by the 'party elders', we would lose a good chunk of the democratic base for a generation.

John McCain the flip-flopper...

by chinapaulo on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:56:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is the poll accurate? (none / 0)

Probably not for a generation. But certainly long enough to make John McCain president. I feel fairly strongly that a lot of African Americans, in particular, would sit out the election if it looked like Clinton got the nod through superdelegate machinations.

The thing is, everybody knows this, and it's just not going to happen. Clinton is finished, she just doesn't realize it yet.

by jlk7e on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nonsense. (none / 0)

Obama has never been expected to win in those states. Clinton has had a double digit lead until recently. If Obama even comes close it is a surprise. If he wins, which is unlikely, it is an upset.

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:42:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is the poll accurate? (none / 0)

Assuming Obama is leading by, say 150 pledged delegates, what factors, exactly are supposed to inspire superdelegates to give the nomination to Clinton anyway?

I suppose one can imagine circumstances where this might happen, but it seems mightily unlikely to me, absent a total Obama implosion.

Note that Clinton's superdelegate margin is shrinking daily.

by jlk7e on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Have you heard of 'outlier' and 'margin of error'? (none / 0)

I've been graphing Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking polls for a while now. Blue is Obama, Red is Clinton (picked randomly):

If Clinton is surging, Rasmussen definitely doesn't show it. Gallup didn't show it yesterday either. Funny how you tend to single out poll results that favor your candidate.

John McCain

by MILiberal on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:18:51 PM EST

That leveling off (none / 0)

was mostly because of another outlier - Rasmussen had Obama up 12 points on one day, so that skews the graph a bit.

John McCain

by MILiberal on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:08:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Well, I love Clinton, but I expect to see her pull out of the race after Texas and Ohio. The numbers are daunting, her campaign is out of funds, and Penn really gave her bad advice.

by Coral on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:19:47 PM EST

Rasmussen steady, not dropping (none / 0)

Obama had one day with a 12% lead over Clinton. The day before it was 5% and the day after it was 8%. I'd call that an outlier. Since that one blip, his lead has ranged between 3 and 7%.

Polls are going to bounce around day-to-day and it's better to look at the trends over a longer period. Unfortunately, that takes most of the fun out of watching daily tracking polls.

by kjblair2 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:23:35 PM EST

Have you seen Obama's momentum in TX, OH? (2.00 / 1)

That's what matters.

New ABC/WaPo polls show Texas tied and Hillary's lead shrinking in Ohio.

by Bob Johnson on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:25:05 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

Yes, let's forget that pesky McCain matchup poll and focus on Gallup's instead.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:26:54 PM EST

Re: This is amazing considering how (none / 0)

Um, I assume you view triangulation as somehow being different than compromise? I do agree that she wont compromise on foriegn policy, after you don't need to compromise when you agree entirely with the other side.

by Socraticsilence on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:29:26 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

time to look at state polls. that's the only thing that matters now.

by tom32182 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:33:30 PM EST

Re: Clinton (none / 0)

Michelle Obama and plagarism and the handling of it are probably going to hurt Obama's campaign.

No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!

by Ga6thDem on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:33:40 PM EST

Re: Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Yeah plagarism screwed Obama in Wisconsin. Give me a break. He's doubling her spending in Texas and Ohio. Texas is basically tied and he's only down by 7-9 points in Ohio. GAME OVER is approaching.

by tom32182 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:37:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton (none / 0)

And that's why it's getting so vicious in here.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:43:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton (none / 0)

It's kind of sad, but on a clinical level fascinating to observe the increasingly convoluted mental gymnastics -- or outright denial -- required to rationalize a Clinton victory at this stage. Look for an increasing occurrence of all-caps writing over the next couple of weeks.

by Weirdsmobile on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:46:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Explanation: Republicans are Deciding our Nominee (2.00 / 1)

The reason that the national polls, and even state-by-state polls show close elections, but then Obama wins states by landslides, is the role Republicans and right-leaning independents play in open primaries.

Polls like Gallup survey "Democrats and Democratic-leaning" independents. But in states like Wisconsin, anyone can walk in and vote on either side.

Overall, vastly more registered Democrats have voted for Clinton. I realize that Obama narrowly won Democrats in Wisconsin.

The cross-over only means that Republicans prefer Obama to Clinton, not McCain to Obama.

Not saying Obama doesn't deserve the nomination, only trying to point out the explanation for the variation we've seen recently between state-by-state polling and the eventual winner.

Check out how many Republicans voted in the Democratic Wisconsin primary.

by steveinohio on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:37:33 PM EST

I did check it out. (none / 0)

The percentage of republicans who votes in the Dem primary in WI was small. And their votes were split between Obama and Clinton, maybe a couple percent more to Obama.

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:47:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama won GOP 72-28 in WI (2.00 / 1)

Nearly one in ten voters in the Democratic primary considered themselves Republican. Of those people Obama won 72-28.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226015/

by steveinohio on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

An assumption that can't be proven (none / 0)

Will people please stop using self-identified party affiliation from exit polls to try and identify the number of Democrats that have voted for a particular candidate. It's just not very accurate. In closed primaries, where only REGISTERED Democrats can vote, approximately 20% of the voters will not self-identify as a Democrat! (It varies from state to state.) There's no reason to assume this problem doesn't exist in open primaries. As a result, there isn't a way to accurately estimate the number of registered Democrats that participate in an open primary and who they voted for. And in Wisconsin, there isn't even party registration so everyone is an independent.

Now to the question of whether Obama or Clinton gets more registered Democrats to vote for them, look at the results from closed primaries. Clinton has won some (AZ, NJ, NY, OK) and Obama has won some (CT, DC, DE, LA, MD). I'd say both candidates can get votes from registered Democrats.

by kjblair2 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

To prove how poor the gallup daily tracking poll has become as an indicator of future primaries I present the following data: In the 11 primaries following February 5th Obama won by an average margin of 33 points. If, however, you look at the gallup poll Clinton actually had a lead for the week following super tuesday and then Obama only had a statistically significant lead for four days in all of February. These Polls are a TERRIBLE indicator of future state results.

by logic is beautiful on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:38:10 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

*11 primaries and caucuses

by logic is beautiful on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:39:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: High number of Red states with Republican (none / 0)

Even if I accept your premise it still makes my point: the gallup tracking poll is not a reliable indicator of future individual state results.

by logic is beautiful on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:43:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: High number of Red states with Republican (none / 0)

Yeah, yeah, it's all a massive conspiracy. The Republicans telepathically communicate to throw our primary results.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: High number of Red states with Republican (none / 0)

And these republicans are also so smart they know, despite polling evidence to the contrary, that Obama will be an easier opponent. In the words of Bill Clinton, "Give me a break".

by logic is beautiful on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:50:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The national polling regarding the (none / 0)

direction of the country tells a different tale. Lots of republicans hate the direction their party has taken. I've had several tell me they will vote Obama in November because they think he has the best chance to heal the country.

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

And yet Obama is surging in TX and OH according to CBS/WaPo poll:

Texas:
Clinton: 48%
Obama: 47%

Ohio
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 43%

by sam2300 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:47:31 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up (2.00 / 1)

Todd,

For the love of Holy Jesus Christ will you give it a rest. Why do national poll numbers even matter?

What matters is if Hillary can win Ohio and Texas.

According to a poll released today by ABC/Washington Post, Obama has caught Hillary in Texas and is down by only 7 in Ohio.

That's what you people need to worry about.

Will you Clinton people ever learn about these stupid national polls that don't mean anything? Need I explain to you how these primary things work?

Obviously you Clinton people don't seem to get the concept.

by obamania on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:49:01 PM EST

Give 'em a break. (none / 0)

They are hoping Clinton can pull this off somehow. I know the feeling -- between the time I buy a lottery ticket and the actual drawing I have the same feeling.

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hope? (none / 0)

We don't need to be raising the false hopes of Clinton supporters about what her campaign can accomplish.

by Weirdsmobile on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:50:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up (2.00 / 1)

Also...

Obama's numbers have been undercounted IN EVERY STATE POLL save New Hampshire. He always outperforms the polls, and it has nothing to do with crossover Republicans --- which is ridiculous. Obama beat Hillary in Wisconsin among every group, including white Democrats.

It's because he has the superior organization. That's it. Instead of wasting your time celebrating national polls that don't matter, why not try to put an organization together.

by obamania on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 05:55:19 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

And that's why it's getting so vicious in here.

not particularly a Hillary fan but I am starting to think watching the Obamacons immolate would be sort of fun.

by casey on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:02:22 PM EST

Re: Hey, we're here for the fun too (none / 0)

I feel a "can't we all just get along" moment coming on. Oh well, the enthusiasm will be useful against McCain, I suppose.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily (none / 0)

Daily tracking poll...rolling primaries...

You see why this poll doesn't mean a whole lot, right? What somebody who already voted thinks today is not very helpful to either candidate at the moment.

by rfahey22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:14:32 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

may I just say
Edwards should endorse. he was my candidate. I talked him up and voted for him but if he sits on the sidelines in this hugely important election in the interest of protecting some plum job he is a coward and I am glad he did not get the nomination.
I do not support Obama but I would have more respect for him if he did.

by casey on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:25:49 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Too many people her have drank the Hillary Kool aid

Can you say, "Cult of Hillary" anyone?

Seriously. Anyone who think that all hillary needs to to a win by small margins in so called "big states that matter" and that the superdelegates will then anoint here "nominees" has a surprise coming.

Yup. Drank too much of the kool aid.

by poserM on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:40:19 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

"So why isn't he running away with this?"
Because SurveyUSA hasn't realized a nationwide poll.

by RussTC3 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:53:50 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking (none / 0)

Well, let's not get too optimistic. I must say, as an Obama supporter I am concerned with the pro-Obama mania I have seen in blog comments. I am optimistic he will get the nomination, but McCain is rallying the Rethug base with today's NYT piece, and he is going full-throttle against Obama. Michelle Obama's comment wasn't addressed promptly enough in the least, and if they're not careful the Obamas could find themselves swift-boated well before convention season heats up. Obama had better be prepared for the slime coming his way. He needs to just ride out the Clinton smears and address them diplomatically while going after McCain full-bore. This will help him in the primaries as well as the general.

http://jimmyqnyc.blogspot.com

by jsedlock on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 06:57:26 PM EST

Why post now (none / 0)

Im just curious why we didnt get a major post when Obama took over Clinton in the tracking poll for the first time almost 2wks ago. Obama jumped out to a 7pt lead last week...nothing...kept a lead for a week...nothing....Hillary up by one point....NEWS....give me a break

by affratboy22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:31:24 PM EST

Iowa (none / 0)

Also, i might say Clinton was up about +20 in the national polls when she came in THIRD in Iowa...just sayin'!

by affratboy22 on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:33:13 PM EST

You all are optimists (none / 0)

You know the story of the optimist who fell from the 50 floor of a building - while he fell he passed some people on the 20 floor - he smiled and said "so far I'm alright"

Listening comes first

by Moonwood on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 07:35:04 PM EST

Every Picture Tells a Story... (none / 0)

Just have a look. This poll has been bobbing and weaving for awhile. Lets face it, this is a 'daily tracking poll' lot's of fun over morning coffee, and right at the moment wavering like a compass needle crossing the North Pole. See y'all back here in a week.

by Shaun Appleby on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:07:08 PM EST

Re: Clinton Up In Gallup Daily Tracking And Hotlin (none / 0)

Todd you ignorant slut...

by MJPacino on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 08:18:43 PM EST

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