MyDD :: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama

WI: ARG finally goes with Obama

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:29:16 AM EST

I usually don't quote ARG, but since we are looking for a poll that might tell us how the late swing is going in Wisconsin, and they've just come out with a reversal of numbers, we might as well take a look.

ARG is the only polling outfit that has showed Clinton ahead, and their Feb 15-16 numbers showed her leading 49-43. But now, with the latest numbers, its reversed:

Obama     52
Clinton   42

They say its women:

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton among men 59% to 37% (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, it is Clinton 47% and Obama 46%. In the February 15-16 survey, Obama was leading Clinton among men 48% to 42% and Clinton was leading Obama among women 55% to 39%.

I wouldn't bank any money on ARG's polling, but what a heck of a reversal for a poll to show.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Permalink :: 105 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Yeah, you don't usually go with them, unless they show an Obama leaning poll. Classic.

by Catriley sez on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:34:32 AM EST

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 1)

He pointed out that he doesn't trust the numbers. Your comment is willfully ignorant of what was said in the body of the posting. Just because he doesn't trust ARG's numbers does not mean he isn't willing to report them (as he did earlier when discussing WI polling in general.)

Your comment is classless and willfully ignorant. Good for you.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 03:11:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

do you even read this site (none / 0)

Jerome has made no secret that he does not like Obama. Unfairly, imo, and to the annoyance of many.

Given that, your criticism is asinine.

by Teaser on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 04:12:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jerome is fairly objective (none / 0)

As is Jon, those two generally stay semi-objective, because they are central to myDD and part of myDD's appeal is that in and of itself, its basically objective and occupies a useful niche in the blogosphere.

Alot of people come here for deep baseball.

I would argue that the polling analysis, where people include margin of error and factors that can influence polling - usually hits target.

So. No. I disagree.
I have read these guys for years. They're just deep baseball most of the time. Don't worry about whether or not one poll or another seems to come out in favor of your candidate or someone else.

PS. Is it just me, or are the clinton supporters sounding a little bit snarky these days?

by Trey Rentz on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:26:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ARG (none / 0)

It's like a running joke.

by highgrade on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:25:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What state is this poll for? (none / 0)

you don't say in the post.

-evan

by evan108108 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:36:16 AM EST

Re: What state is this poll for? (none / 0)

I usually don't quote ARG, but since we are looking for a poll that might tell us how the late swing is going in Wisconsin, and they've just come out with a reversal of numbers, we might as well take a look.

Emphasis is mine

John McCain

by MILiberal on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:38:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 1)

Obama is screwed. damn.

by tom32182 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:36:38 AM EST

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I was thinking the same thing. "ARG has Obama winning Wisconsin? He's doomed!"

by maddogg on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:28:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 1)

Join the club... that was my first thought as well. DAMN YOU ARG! If he loses tonight...

by yitbos96bb on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:48:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting (2.00 / 1)

Looks like they realized how wrong their numbers were and tried to 'fix' them.

John McCain

by MILiberal on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:36:41 AM EST

Re: Interesting (2.00 / 1)

maybe they're just trying to publish every possible result, so they can advertise as having nailed the WI primary in their promotional literature.

by BlueinColorado on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:40:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

we will see at the end of the day won't we.

polls open in a few hours.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:37:20 AM EST

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Yes, they are. Exciting stuff, isn't it Lori? I love elections, win, lose or draw. It's like being at the races.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:41:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I don't. it bothers me. makes me nervous. I like government to be sort of a boring exercise in making cool new bike trails through the woods of my neighborhood and maybe alternative energy sources that make clean power a reality, and just...well.. efficient bureaucracy ...?

seriously. I envy some states. I don't tune
into politics for drama. quite the reverse.

Ever since the rise of Obama and Moveon's victories I've been calming down alot.

One day maybe our government will just work and we won't have to be paranoid about it.

by Trey Rentz on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:30:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 1)

can we (hill-amatrons and obamabots) all agree arg sucks?

Being Normal is for the Mediocre.

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:39:44 AM EST

Yes (2.00 / 0)

I would be happy with both candidates, and I can agree with you. Most polling sucks this cycle, and people spend way too much time focused on polls anyway.

by BBCWatcher on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:44:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes (none / 0)

But the polls make it more like a horse race and less like the lottery.

Poll-watchers get lots of time to see their candidate close the gap, then drop back, then inch forward again. Have to admit I love 'em.

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:28:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

yes, we all agree (none / 0)

It's as if they were created to make Zogby seem less bad.

New Jersey politics and news

by John DE on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:18:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Yes, their polls mean nothing to me.

by supsupsup on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:47:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

This Obamanaut agrees: ARG sux.

by Nissl on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:17:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I think there is a general consensus. I'm sure most obama supporters don't believe he is up 6 in Texas.

by yitbos96bb on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:50:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

ARG is bad. too bad i have yet to see a legit poll out of Wisconsin.

by Phanekim on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:40:37 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Not just Wisconsin but everywhere...although how do you know you haven't seen a legit poll out of Wisconsin? THey haven't voted yet.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 03:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I saw a poll referenced yesterday from a Wisconsin TV station showing Obama 47, Clinton 42. But it was a scroll across the bottom of the screen, and I didn't catch when it was in the field. As an Obama supporter, I'm not at all confident that he has this wrapped up. The demographics strongly favor Clinton. I wouldn't be surprised if she ekes out a win or a close second.

by godemsin08 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:12:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Like Iowa (none / 0)

Bad as ARG is, this outcome looks like Iowa. Women voted for Obama in Iowa and may do so in Wisconsin as well. If it weren't for the fact that it's ARG and it just showed a 16-point swing in two days, I'd say it was a credible poll. You add PPP on top of it, which also showed movement toward Obama, and you have a real story. But PPP and ARG both stink. That leaves us with SUSA's bizarre non-poll of the primary. They found a massive differential in GE matchups, which must mean they also show a sizable Obama lead in the primary.

by elrod on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:41:46 AM EST

Not necessarily (none / 0)

In SurveyUSA's GE polls, Obama does far better than Clinton in California.

John McCain

by MILiberal on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:43:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not necessarily (none / 0)

Recently?

by elrod on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:15:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 1)

Obama wins by a minimum of 15% tomorrow. I have spoken.

by global yokel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:43:04 AM EST

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

You get mojo for being right on the mark.

by Pravin on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 12:18:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I swear... (2.00 / 1)

They're using a dartboard over there.

by Bob Johnson on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:44:36 AM EST

dartboard and... drunken monkeys!!! (none / 0)

n/t

Being Normal is for the Mediocre.

by Doug Tuttle on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:47:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I swear... (none / 0)

Hey, it works for picking stocks doesn't it?

That One is the Right One for 2008.

by GFORD on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:30:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

These days. (none / 0)

by Bob Johnson on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:48:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 0)

Jerome, are you feeling OK? You mentioned Obama without making an arrogant condescending remark about his supporters? Get some rest.

by ChrisG7 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:53:06 AM EST

rofl (none / 0)

Hey, give him a break. He's saving up his best stuff for when Obama wins.

by Trey Rentz on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:31:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Weird Stuff (none / 0)

I don't see much in the way of internals posted. But they do assume that 32% of the voters will be independents or Republicans. (It's an open primary.) Anybody know if that's realistic compared to other open primaries thus far? Looking at Connecticut and CNN's exit poll, for example, it was 20%. Virginia was 29%.

It is a Friday-Saturday poll so, unless they adjusted the sample for age, conventional polling wisdom is that you'll miss younger voters and catch only the older folks. And conventional wisdom is that older folks skew toward Clinton.

by BBCWatcher on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:55:12 AM EST

Re: Weird Stuff (none / 0)

Yeah... That's what I was wondering too regarding the weekend polling. The past few weeks every poll that was conducted over a weekend usually skewed toward Hillary.

John McCain defends Bush's Iraq strategy.

by recusancy on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:01:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Weird Stuff (none / 0)

Of course all the new hampshire polling was weekend stuff too. :-)

by Whoppo on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Intrade has Obama a ten-to-one favorite. This close to the election, with the supporting poll data, I think the signs are clear. I could be eating my words tomorrow, but I'd say the polls are right -- ARG may even have the margin right.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:59:03 AM EST

What If ARG Is Correct? (none / 0)

Let's suppose ARG's dartboard got this one correct. OK, yes, that'd be a first, but maybe they're due. If you have enough monkeys throwing enough darts....

What would be the most likely delegate outcome? Anybody got a projection?

by BBCWatcher on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:03:33 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

If you're thinking delegates, don't forget Hawaii. It's a caucus in a state he grew up in. It's not going to be close. He may run up the score there.

After tomorrow, I'd guess HRC is down another 20 delegates.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:08:41 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 0)

And what about Democrats Abroad? There's eleven delegates there, too. Not many expatriate Americans in favour of the AUMF vote, I can tell you. We've heard about it for years and don't see things through the lens of the US domestic media, either.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:19:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Democrats Abroad (2.00 / 0)

DA announces results on February 21st (Thursday). It's actually 7 pledged delegates; the rest are supers. I'm predicting +3 Obama (5-2 split). Half delegates are possible (e.g. 4.5-2.5) in that contest.

by BBCWatcher on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:57:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats Abroad (none / 0)

Yeah, it's a fascinating contest for which I have been unable to find any indicators. Any clues?

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:17:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Only a Few (2.00 / 0)

A few of the in-person voting centers have announced results. Jakarta voted 3 to 1 in favor of Obama. Tokyo voted almost 5 to 1. I think London was about 2 to 1. Demographically you'd think it would skew toward higher income, highly educated, Internet-connected voters.

by BBCWatcher on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:13:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Only a Few (2.00 / 0)

Demographically you would think it would skew towards expatriates, like myself, who think the US policy regarding the war in Iraq is the single most asinine, self-destructive and pointless disaster ever perpetrated on the American public and who also happen to absorb the daily media available to the other 5.5 billion people on the planet who aren't actively consuming Fox or CNN. Obama 4:1.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:23:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

delegates (none / 0)

Have the Democrats living abroad been factored into the delegate count yet? They get 11 seats at the convention, and Feb. 12 was the deadline for their votes to be submitted. But I don't know the outcome....

by global yokel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:17:44 AM EST

Re: delegates (none / 0)

Results on the 22nd, by all accounts. By carrier pigeon...

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:20:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: delegates (none / 0)

American Samoa:

Hillary 2
Obama 1

No kidding. compliments of the New York Times.

"The Bumble Bee flies because it thinks it can."

by LadyEagle on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:13:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: delegates (none / 0)

That's a territory, Democrats Abroad is for expats. Live and learn. It's a big world out there. You'd be amazed. Well, maybe not.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:20:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (1.00 / 0)

We'll see. I'm still banking on this one being close. I have yet to see obama win a PRIMARY w/o a good sized AA population.

by Phanekim on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:21:32 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I don't think Virginia had a really large AA population.

by mecarr on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:40:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Utah, Connecticut, Missouri as well. But those don't count.

by ficus1 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

First off (none / 0)

I would like to say, because of the asshole below... I HATE Bigots and Sexist Assholes!

Period!

Next.... on to something better!

Check out this WONDERFUL diary at Dkos about Hillary Clintons rally in WI. This truly IS a diary that should be rec'd by ALL!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/19/ 05543/4067/198/459488

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:52:37 AM EST

actually (none / 0)

the asshole is above not below.

Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: actually (none / 0)

Well, now you've got me confused. And that was the one thing I thought I was confident about.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: actually (1.00 / 1)

meh. clinton supporter. ho hum. par for the course.

by Trey Rentz on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:32:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: actually (none / 0)

you must be doing a head stand.

by supsupsup on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:42:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First off (none / 0)

In regards to getting plenty of insurance industry money, Barack Obama is do so--at least, based on my uncle. I'm an African American and my uncle is an insurance company partner. He told me that he is voting his pocket book--and that means Barack Obama.

by Check077 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:09:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Who needs polls when you've got me? (2.00 / 1)

Predictions by Congressional District

1st (Ryan) narrow Obama, 3-3

2nd (Baldwin) Obama 5-3. I'm hearing a lot of 6-2 locally, but I don't buy it. Clinton's rescheduled visit for tonight is firewall on the 6th delegate. She loses Madison in a rout, but breaks even in the burbs.

3d (Kind) Obama UPGRADE from 3-3 to 60% chance of 4-2. based on reports from the ground in rural Counties especially Trempeleau, Pierce, and along the Kickapoo, plus the success of Obama's visit to Eau Claire. LaCrosse narrow Obama. fairly large campus, but also a lot of elderly. Congressman Kind's said he'll cast his SD vote with the district winner.

4th: (Moore) Obama likely 3-3, big turnout favors an Obama delegate split, as Clinton's support from public employee Unions is diluted. 20% chance Obama 4-2. Clinton's spontaneous weather-dictated appearances at cafes and the El Rey hispanic grocery were probably more effective for her than a conbventional "event."

5th (Sensenbrenner) Clinton 3-2, on prochoice Republican womens' crossover NO CHANGE

6th (Petri) Obama, 3-2, I'm becoming confident on this one. UPGRADE OBAMA

7th (Obey) Obama, Dicey as to whether he makes the 4-2 split. He romped in Duluth, and the Eau Claire and Stevens Point campuses had monster turnout in `06. Eau Claire County straddles the District line. now 70% chance of the 4-2. UPGRADE OBAMA

8th (Kagen) 6 delegates. Tossup. Was lean Clinton UPGRADE OBAMA. Kagen's also said he'll cast his SD with the District's voters. Clinton's in De Pere this AM hold this one.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:18:32 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

ARG is just incredible. I think they're a Republican polling outfit or something, but the only consistent thing about them is that they're always the outlier in every set of polls.

I suspect that they do a really shoddy job of predicting turnout, and then they try to adjust their model to get in line with other polls as they get closer to election day. Really just a bad outfit.

Frankly, now that they've shown Obama up big, I'm more worried he'll lose.

by Siguy on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:23:11 AM EST

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Wow...that is totally classless. Thanks for sharing.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 03:12:35 AM EST

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 0)

Where are the HRC supporters to decry this rascist and mysoginistic piece of crap?

by a gunslinger on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:09:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

speaking as an independent, I'd bet that the guy who posted this is probably GOP

the dems are doing at least a passable job of draining the bush swampmire ... i wouldn't call them dumbocrats.

but then again, I'm an independent.
and i have to vote for them every now and then.

by Trey Rentz on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:28:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Too late to dampen expectations. Hillary has to do well tomorrow (at least make it close), or she's in big trouble.

by washingtoncritic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 03:59:05 AM EST

disingenious bs (none / 0)

besides, she's already in big trouble.

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:36:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Well it's election day so we'll see if this poll, or any of them, were right.

Personally, I don't trust any poll that was conducted before the plagarism scandal broke, and that would be all of them.

I think the gravity of this recent revelation will shake the electorate to its senses and Hillary will pull the state out in fine fashion.

My prediction:

Hillary 56%
Obama 44%

Hope everyone has a great day and will be watching the results come. The nomination process starts tonight!

"For 15 years I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger." ~Hillary Clinton

by EightMoreYears on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:39:49 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

The 'plagiarism scandal?' Surely you mean Mark Penn choking on his own vomit.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 05:56:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

whoa (none / 0)

That seems VERY optimistic. Prepare yourself for a letdown.

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: whoa (none / 0)

Well, we'll see.

I think a scandal like this will have legs with a whole lot of voters who generally like both candidates and were still trying to come to a final decision. I think when they step into the voting booths they will choose solutions and experience over stolen rhetoric and lack of experience.

In the end, I think this will be the turning point in the election and will lead to a landslide in Ohio and a 60+ win in Texas for Hillary. Then Obama's momemtum will be completely shut down and Hillary will carry Pennsylvania overwhelmingly.

It all starts to come together tonight.

"For 15 years I have stood up against the right-wing machine and I've come out stronger." ~Hillary Clinton

by EightMoreYears on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:13:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Are you sure? (none / 0)

Are you sure you're not just an Obama supporter pretending to support Hillary and making these great predictions to jynx her? lol

There is not going to be any sea change until after the debates and maybe the Rezko trial. Quite frankly the window of opportunity is closing on Clinton. The media has jumped too far over the shark in trying to destroy her -- they will not allow her to get into the White House after all this. They went "all in" on behalf of Obama. They need to sacrifice him at the altar of McCain later, you know.

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:04:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I don't think that scandal broke through to average voters who don't surf blogs all day.

by bigdcdem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:12:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and today is all about Castro (2.00 / 0)

hard for it to continue being a story today.

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:05:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

The network news coverage I've seen of it (and most cable, too) also show clips of Clinton stealing lines from her husband and Obama. This is going nowhere.

by godemsin08 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:17:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I think the big swing you need to be worried about is Wisconsin voters seeing the negative attack ads and getting turned off by the Clinton campaign.

If she loses by more than 4 or 5 points, I would imagine that might be a topic of discussion among people who watch these things for a living.

by swarty on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:35:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

More likely voters will see through the desperate mudslinging from Wolfson and Penn and be reminded of why the Clintons are too sleazy to be placed back in the White House. Plagiarism? From Mrs. "Yes She Can"? That's rich. Note also that Patrick's 2006 campaign was mirrored after Obama's 2004 Senate race. I guess that must mean Obama plagiarized himself...

by elrod on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:10:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Elrod,

You are the epitome of why a lot of people can't stand Obama supporters. To say how "sleazy" we are is to deny your own candidates inclination for being sleazy himself. I need not list examples, but at least Hillary doesn't have to pretend to be someone she's not, someone on high moral ground that with a closer look is just as down low and seedy as the rest of them. And actually, I was at the Hillary Super Tuesday results party on February 5th and when CNN went on to Candy Crowly and we were behind her, as I was on the bleachers, I'm the one who started the "Yes She Can" chant because I thought how sweet it was to give the frantic Obama supporters a taste of their own medicine after predicting our collapse on ST. So call me a plagiarizer if you will, but we aren't stealing any speeches.

by jackfkntwist on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:26:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

So Hillary has already met your lowered expectations. How inspiring. I'll go with the other option.

by elrod on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

So Hillary has already met your lowered expectations. How inspiring. I'll go with the other option.

by elrod on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:46:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 0)

I'm sorry, I really can't trust this polling outfit. I mean, in the matter of 2 days, a 16% swing??? I just can't take that seriously.

by bigdcdem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:11:02 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I predict it will be Clinton 49 Obama 47 at the end of the night.

Clinton is coming back.

Full discosure, I am an Obama supporter.

Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.

by Walt Starr on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:13:52 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

It ain't going to be pretty , whatever the outcome.

by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:26:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think the crossover Republicans skew it (none / 0)

They will turn out to stop Hillary once again and I predict it will be 59-41 Obama

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:10:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Obama wins in the single digits on Tuesday...

Hillary cries on Wednesday...

A new, pathetic scandal is propagated by the Clinton Kingdom on Thursday, which backfires yet again...

I laugh at the end of the world on Friday...

by DemonBlue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 06:38:21 AM EST

why so hateful? (2.00 / 0)

Is it necessary to once again make fun of her crying? Think about it... it really adds nothing to the world to post that on a blog.

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:11:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

County websites, report times, Counties to watch (none / 0)

Links to County websites: look for County Clerk if results not on front.Biggest and smallest counties don't post returns til next AM.

The following have usually had results up early:
Douglas, Bayfield, Polk, Dunn, Chipewa, Eau Claire, Marathon, Portage, Brown, Outagamie, Winnebagol, Trempeleau, LaCrosse, Monroe, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Washington, Ozaukee,Rock, Kenosha, Racine.

Dane gets rural townships early, heavily Obama downtown districts always come in last.

Milwaukee, we'll hopefully see enough improvement to have numbers by Wednesday morning.

If you want to pick one early reporting County as predictive of the State final, go with Rock.

Key delegate County: Eau Claire

Goes to Obama, but by how much?

It's split between Kind's 3d District, and Obey's. Obama's close to getting 4 of the 6 delegates from each, but can't without taking EC big. If Hillary has 46% here, she likely saves both delegates. Dunn's also split between these CDs.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 07:01:17 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Forget ARG. Anecdotes and trends in the field are more instructive.

by MAL Contends on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:11:56 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

In some States weather like this
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState .php?state=WI&prodtype=state
would be a real problem..not so much here but still a factor..if large numbers still turn out that will bode well for Dems in Balmy November

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:30:10 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

When I lived in Chicago, the Winconsinites wore t-shirts in January when it was -5 out. I don't think weather will ever be a factor is a WI election.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:16:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Note:by "here" I did not mean to imply I am in WI however we have friends and family there. They say even by WI standards this winter has been a "tough" one.

"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie

by nogo war on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:34:29 AM EST

I'd add my 2 cents (none / 0)

But I think we're only supposed to agree with Jerome nowadays

by zonk on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:36:58 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

ARG has been awful this year. I'm tempted to read this poll as a Hillary surge

by Grady on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:48:24 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

we've heard for the past week now that Obama does not in fact improve his numbers in the waning moments of a campaign.

what will the spin be if Hillary loses by more then 8 tonight? in a state that she put a good deal of time and resources in? after polls showed her down only 5 or so points?

i have argued that people who chose on the last day may likely be Hillary leaners vs. Obama leaners. by default, she should win a majority of these people but perhaps the truth is she's not winning enough of them (too many are jumping on the obama bandwagon). The final results in most every state except the northeast (ct, deleware excluded) back this assertion up. She getting demolished when compared to polls in just about every state.

it's sad when i'm outguessing people who have done campaign analysis for years. this hope that Team Hillary can win is distorting good commentary. MyDD has become the ARG of blogs at the moment and it's making me question the content that I have read on here and will read on here.

by alex100 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:48:30 AM EST

who cares about spin at this point (none / 0)

this is just about the delegates and if Obama wins Texas on March 4th it's all over anyway.

by diplomatic on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ARG finally goes with Obama (2.00 / 1)

I am an Obama supporter and I want to say this: getting outraged by stupid shit like this does not help our cause. Just shrug it off. People make off color and even racist jokes in our country. We lose when we seem to be hypersensitive and cranky about everything.

by snaktime on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:26:08 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Now that Obama has already been Whitewatered, I fully expect a Vince Fostering to commence shortly. The Clintons and their loyal subjects are already busy filling in the Mad Libs right now.

by DemonBlue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:32:40 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Oops... wrong thread.

by DemonBlue on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:33:56 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Wisconsin is a state with relatively good demographics for Clinton. There are only 15 or so states left to vote. If Clinton cannot even tie in one of the few states that should be relatively good to her, that's a big problem.

Everyone remains obsessed with momentum but we are already 2/3 done with the vote. It's not about momentum, it's just about winning. There is no silver lining for Clinton even if she can win states like Wisconsin by inconsequential margins. She has to make up ground.

I don't foresee her doing that today.

by snaktime on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:34:09 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

There is still momentum at this point. There's just no huge bounce for winning any more. Momentum is a slow building and slow changing force. Polls in every state and nationally have been moving slowly towards Obama constantly since IA. That is the momentum. In between, there have been bounces from the really early states like IA (for Obama), NH (for Clinton), and SC (for Obama). The bounces usually fade over time, the momentum does not.

The momentum matters because it is crumbling Hillary's firewalls in TX and OH brick by brick. Most polls now show TX with a couple points, and I suspect if the momentum isn't stemmed tonight, OH will as well. Barring some major implosion, with no intervening elections, Obama will be over the top in at least one of those states if not both by 3/4 and by 3/5, this race is over.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:56:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

I do not think I can vote for Obama--I'll write Hillary's name on the ballot....

by Check077 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 10:19:48 AM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

Calling you a wah-mbulance.

by crazymoloch on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:02:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

What?! Another insult from an Obama supporter. You people are exactly the reason I will not vote for Obama... Keep it up, considering that clinton supporters make up about half of the Democratic party....

by Check077 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 02:42:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

If ARG has Obama leading, does that mean Hillary is going to win today?

by crazymoloch on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:02:01 PM EST

Re: WI: ARG finally goes with Obama (none / 0)

From local news blogs:

Lots of new voters

10:45 a.m., District 13 (Madison ward 52, Romnes Apartments, 540 W. Olin Ave.): Poll workers said they were surprised by the large morning turnout. Close to 350 people had voted before 11 a.m., including many who registered on the spot at the polling place. "We've had a lot of new voters," said a poll worker, pointing to two clipboards listing the names of new registrants. -- Gayle Worland

(http://www.madison.com/wsj/home/local/27 3109)

Those new voters ain't coming out for Clinton.

by EMTP democrat on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:58:35 PM EST

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