MyDD :: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton

New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton

by Todd Beeton, Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:01:05 PM EST

Ever since I read Glenn Smith's "Texas: What Firewall?" and Burnt Orange Report's analysis of the allocation of delegates, which showed how an 8% popular vote win for Clinton turns into a 6 delegate win for Obama, I've been questioning the confident rhetoric out of the Clinton camp that after March 4th, Clinton and Obama would be close to even in delegates. So maybe they have a popular vote strategy, I wondered, because surely if Clinton is as strong in Ohio and Texas as her campaign claims, she should leave March 4th having cut into Barack Obama's popular vote lead and get some much needed media love, perhaps even some momentum, for having won some big states. Well, now it looks as though even that's in danger. The other day Jonathan suggested a 7 point lead in Texas would represent a "tighter than expected" race, what about a 2% lead?

From CNN's latest poll out of Texas (529 LVs, Feb. 15-17, MOE +/- 4.5%):

	CNN 2/15-17	RCP 4-Poll Ave	Pollster
Clinton	50	50.3	48.8
Obama	48	42.0	44.3

What firewall, indeed? This does follow on the heels of a Rasmussen poll taken on February 14th that showed Clinton up 16% even after Obama's February 12th wins, but if indeed Texas is proving what Obama's campaign constantly claims, that Obama gains ground if he has the time to campaign aggressively somewhere, then it's hard to see any silver lining for Clinton out of March 4th.

Texas was supposed to be a state whose demographics favored Clinton but if this poll is at all indicative of how the state is trending (can't find internals quite yet) we may be looking at a tie in this crucial state.

Likely Democratic primary voters view Clinton and Obama on roughly equal terms. Seventy-nine percent say they would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee; an equal number feel the same way about Obama. Seventy-nine percent say it's likely Clinton can win the nomination; 82 percent say the same about Obama.
The two candidates are essentially tied on immigration, Iraq and the economy, but Clinton has an advantage on health care and abortion.

This is one state where a tie most definitely does not go to Clinton.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, democratic nomination, texas primary, hillary clinton, barack obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 50 Comments :: Post a Comment

It's One Poll (none / 0)

This is a nice poll if you like Obama, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. Honestly, it's this kind of reaction that has ended up costing Obama, big time, in the expectations game. Closing a once huge lead to a smaller lead should not make Obama the favorite.

Personally, I'll be happy if he can keep Texas within 10 points. If he does that, the delegate swing won't be significant and he'll likely maintain his popular vote advantage as well.

by HSTruman on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:13:23 PM EST

Re: It's One Poll (none / 0)

Another thing that should be noted is that this is a weekend poll

by world dictator on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:29:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's One Poll (none / 0)

I don't think anyone is seriously calling Obama the favorite (although by March 4th he might be.)

My feelings are this- I love both candidates, but I am supporting Obama. Either way I want it decided by March 5th. If we keep dragging this thing out we will lose in November.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:33:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's One Poll (none / 0)

Your right. Obama must play as if he is losing.

But still, it doesn't look like a firewall for a losing campaign. Neither will get huge margins. But this is what Hillary promised her remaining Supers.

Obama only needs make a good show. Hillary shouldn't have made such a big deal of Texas to keep her Supers from defecting.

Currently, she is downplaying Texas. Oh, the unfairness of caucuses!! Shows she has given up and is trying to get her supporters to hang on for another long month.

To the detriment of us all.

by platy on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 11:39:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And It's Still Mid-February (none / 0)

There are still two weeks to go, and that CNN poll found that a quarter of voters think they could change their minds. And nobody really knows how to properly model turnout this cycle.

by BBCWatcher on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:14:00 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

March 4 is looking more and more like the end for the Clinton campaign.

by dmc2 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:14:48 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Good. You have netkooks, Moveon, Repugs, Indies. Most moderate democrats like me would vote for McCcain. It should not be a problem for your candidate because he doe not need moderate Dems.

You may not agree with What I say but don't forget I am a Democrat

by indydem99 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 08:08:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Give me one single policy position where McCain is closer to you than Obama.

by dmc2 on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 10:07:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How big does Clinton have to win in Texas? (none / 0)

Ignoring this poll for a moment, how decisively does Clinton need to win in Texas? What margin does she need to maintain her argument on elected delegates versus superdelegates?

by Bob Johnson on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:15:02 PM EST

Re: How big does Clinton have to win in Texas? (none / 0)

she has to win ohio and texas , it doesn't have to be decisive in both states.

if she wins 1 comfortably like ohio and the other not so comfortably thats enough .

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How big does Clinton have to win in Texas? (2.00 / 1)

Maybe, but she has to close the delegate gap. If Obama breaks even with her in Texas, then she needs a monster win in Ohio to close the gap.

by Bob Johnson on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:18:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How big does Clinton have to win in Texas? (2.00 / 1)

Clinton will probably fall further behind in delegates. If she wins a close race, Obama could still net 6 or 7 delegates. If he wins a close race, he could net 10 to 15 delegates. Clinton will have to win by more than 10 points to come close to a net gain of 1 to 4 pledged delegates based on the popular vote.

And, no one should forget that 67 delegates will be chosen in the caucuses. Obama's organizational advantage might give him two-thirds of those delegates, as it has in some other caucus states, meaning another 20+ net gain.

If today's poll was the election result, I'm projecting Obama would leave Texas with a net gain of 26 delegates -- granting Obama an organizational advantage we've seen in other states. Please remember this big number is based on the assumption that organizational advantage will translate to Texas, and that is only an assumption.

by Glenn Smith on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:04:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How big does Clinton have to win in Texas? (none / 0)

No, it's not enough. She's trailing by over one hundred in pledged delegates, and "not so comfortable wins" in the states with the most delegates are not going to cut that margin enough. If she actually loses net delegates in Texas, she doesn't have mch of a chance at all.

by PantherDem on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How big does Clinton have to win in Texas? (none / 0)

i anticipate she would win more comfortably in ohio in terms of popular vote and delegates.

however texas is a a state that is dicey . if she wins the popular vote and she wins or loses the delegate count by a narrow margin she lives to fight another day.

i would think winning the state is a higher priority after what looks like 10 lossess . they would worry about the delegates later.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:25:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

a week ago everyone (none / 0)

was saying she had to win Texas and Ohio big.

Listening comes first

by Moonwood on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 07:16:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Still true (none / 0)

I suppose it depends on what Clinton's strategy. If it's to try to win a big state or two and get some sort of media bounce then I suppose a close win would suffice in OH or TX. But MS and WY come soon after and would set things back again. If it's the delegate math she's playing then she needs a significant win in BOTH TX and OH in order to close the gap. Down 134 delegates right now she cannot miss opportunities to make up ground.

by elrod on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:35:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Still true (none / 0)

At some point, it sort of has to be about delegate math, doesn't it...

by HSTruman on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:53:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Depends... (none / 0)

She's have to win both by pretty substantial margins (like 2:1), along with the contests afterwards to actually tie/pass Obama in pledged delegates.

As for how well she'd need to do to be able to call the contest a virtual tie? Depends on how you define it. They could be down 30 delegates and call it a tie, or they could be down 300 delegates and still do the same.

by Brillobreaks on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:21:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Depends... (2.00 / 1)

Heh.

They could be down 30 delegates and call it a tie, or they could be down 300 delegates and still do the same.

Yes, you are correct. They will claim it's "tied" no matter what the final tally.

I can hear Wolfson and Penn spinning it now...

by Bob Johnson on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:24:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

If obama picks up 6 delegates with an 8 point clinton win (as it says in the post) then a 2 point clinton win wouldnt be a tie, it would be an obama win

by dirtbag3 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:25:30 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

If obama picks up 6 delegates with an 8 point clinton win (as it says in the post) then a 2 point clinton win wouldnt be a tie, it would be an obama win

by dirtbag3 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:25:38 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

She's trailing Obama by about 700,000 votes in the popular vote race. I'm not sure where you're getting the "if she wins one comfortably, thats enough" line from (Mark Penn, perhaps?) but its completely false.

If you include Florida, Hillary could pull into a statistical tie for the popular vote lead by winning each of Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania by 10 points. Winning Texas by a slim margin (particularly since it is the largest state of the three) means she would have to win OH and PA by, as the poster above noted, monster margins just to be able to claim a popular vote tie.

Time to take off the Clinton-colored glasses.

by jumbohoya on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:25:53 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

From the articles I've seen about the proportional allocation of delegates it looks like Clinton has spent the most time in the areas which could net her the least. It has been an astonishingly poorly run campaign from Day 1.

by Piuma on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:26:59 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Yes. It is astonishing! She had all the $, name recognition, establishment support.

I think the problem is that she never expected to have to campaign. She can't deal with the unexpected, surrounds herself with incompetents and is unable to adjust and change course.

Barrack took her by surprise (our own party member!). Imagine how she will handle the tides of national and international problems.

by platy on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:23:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton can't pick up delegates in TX (none / 0)

Incorrect. There are only two caucuses left after Hawaii tomorrow, Wyoming and Puerto Rico.

by InigoMontoya on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:34:28 PM EST

Re: If Clinton can't pick up delegates in TX (none / 0)

Not just caucuses - Mississippi and North Carolina look like good ground for him. The only post-3/4 states that clearly favor Clinton are Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania.

The 60-40 split that she currently needs grows with each contest she doesn't win the delegates by that margin - who thinks that she'll win TX's delegates by three to two?

by PantherDem on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:34:47 PM EST

Re: If Clinton can't pick up delegates in TX (none / 0)

Of course Penn, Kentucky and WA have a good amount of delegates between them. Even Howard Dean pointed out that nearly 33% of voters haven't voted yet

by world dictator on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:52:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Clinton can't pick up delegates in TX (none / 0)

PA yes. KY and WV have very few delegates. And in PA Obama will definitely close the margin thanks to support among African Americans in Philly and Pittsburgh and the college educated set in the Philly suburbs. Even KY might be closer with Louisville, Cincinnati suburbs and Lexington as prime areas for Obama. WV is a total loss outside Morgantown. Hillary's true base is among Appalachian women.

But you add in SD, MT, NC, IN, PR and Oregon to the mix and Obama gains even more.

by elrod on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:40:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Another poll predicting the end of Hillary Clinton?

Who could have predicted that?

by krj47 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:45:06 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

if this poll is to be believed, things look tragic for Hillary. her hope would be to score big in the debate. something I don't see happening.

by alex100 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:47:38 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Most people on here claiming she needs to win big are the most biased of Obama supporters.

Realistically, she probably just needs to win both states. The huge media surrounding her winning both states on March 4th are more than enough to keep her going. She's not going to win two huge states and be deemed a loser especially if she wins one of the by decent margins.

by world dictator on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:55:36 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

But...she has to win by a 10-point margin in TX just to get a 1-2 delegate win in the primary part of Texas' election. She's still not expected to win the caucus part of Texas' election...so how she can win in TX without a clear dominance going in is, at least to me, very unclear.

Now a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

by Phillip Martin on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 05:59:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

The problem with your post is that you're arguing math I'm arguing expectations and narratives.

That's what a lot of Obama supporters ironically don't get. Dropping out or staying in and/or momentum is about media narratives not delegate allocation. Can delegates help determine the narrative? Absolutely. Does it overshadow winning two huge battleground states? Doubt it.

The only candidate trying to end the race on March 4th is Barack Obama.

by world dictator on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:16:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

I don't think Clinton needs moral or expectation victories at this point. She needs actual victories.

Moral victories don't put food on the table and money in our pockets, to turn a phrase.

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:32:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

I agree! Her spin on the losses are "just words".

by platy on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 12:35:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Delegates matter quite a bit at this point, particularly for Obama. He and Clinton both know that dragging this out is bad for the party... if I were a cynic I would suggest that Clinton just wants to make it as hard as possible for Obama to win in November (and make her a very attractive alternative to McCain in 2012.)

I am going to have faith though that neither candidate feels like that is a good plan for themselves, their party, or their country. This will be decided one way or another soon- to not do so would be folly.

Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America

by JDF on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

Hillary is running out of states. If she doesn't get big delegate numbers out of TX and OH it is nearly impossible for her to ever catch Obama. All Obama needs to do is keep it close in TX. He could even lose OH by a big margin and still be OK. The only way she wins then is if the Supers throw the nomination to her.

"As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border."

by fugazi on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 07:38:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

What you are missing is that we are past the point where wins wiii turn the narrative. If obama is still up 100 delegates after the fourth the dominant question will become how can clinton win?

by fladem on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 09:56:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

I think that's reasonable in terms of what she does afterwards. If she wins Texas and Ohio, even by small margins, she probably won't quit. But if she doesn't win by big margins, she simply cannot catch up in pledged delegates. So if she wins by small margins and sticks around, she is committing to a superdelegate/FL/MI win.

Whatever the arguments about superdelegates, if she loses the pledged delegates and then wins through super dels or rules changes on FL/MI, it will be a P.R. disaster both within and outside the democratic party. Can you imagine anything feeding the "Clintons will do anything to win" line more than that? This is one reason I am hoping for a convincing Obama win on March 4.

by snaktime on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Simple math dictates that without big, 25+ point wins in ALL THREE states (TX/OH/PA), she's unlikely to pass Obama in Pledged Delegates without invoking some FL/MI shenanigans.

Her only path to an untainted nomination are huge wins in all three of those states or total upsets elsewhere. That's just how the delegate math works out.

by EvilCornbread on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:04:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 1)

The CNN quoted text says Obama doesn't fair as well as Clinton on abortion.

This is amongst democrats so what is the issue? I just saw Lawrence Lessig put the boot to a Clinton camp falsehood about abortion and Obama.

Its a powerful indictment of those misleading falsehoods. NOW, the National Organization of Women, gave Obama 100% rating in Illinois. Lorna Beth Howard former president of Chicago NOW publicly switched from Clinton to Obama because of these misleading falsehoods about Obama.

by inexile on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:01:34 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 2)

Identity politics. Chances are that voters who care more about abortion rights than any other are going to side with Hillary Clinton. The same would go for Obama and civil rights. Both candidates have stellar records on choice and civil rights, but identity politics might skew support to one or the other in this case. I wouldn't read much more into it.

by elrod on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:43:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

I don't know if this will help, but I'm a woman who is strong on abortion rights.

I consider NOW to be a nutty feminist group. I don't want to know who they endorse or why. They're still yelling victim with every breath. If they stopped shouting and engaged in the current society, I believe they would find equal footing.

I do, however care a great deal about Planned Parenthood. This is a sensible group with a balanced view. They support education to prevent pregnancy, and support rather than vilify women or girls who choose abortion after being given choices.

I do know that Planned Parenthood has given Obama an excellent rating.

The Planned Parenthood endorsement is good enough for me. I won't hold it against Obama if NOW endorsed, as well.

by platy on Tue Feb 19, 2008 at 01:10:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (2.00 / 2)

Also, if Clinton wins TX by 8 points but Obama gains 6 more delegates, that's a dream scenario for Clinton. It highlights on national TV with everyone watching how horrible the delegate system is.

Most people on this blog are hyper partisian political junkies so they'll spin or defend Texas and the delegate system but the bottomline is that its impossible for you to tell the average voter that a significant popular vote total doesn't determine the winner. Democrats in particular are sensitive about two things the most in the last eight years. Swift boating and Florida 2000.

A good sized popular vote win but more delegates for Obama is exactly the "see I told you delegates and caucuses don't represent the 'will of the people' "argument Clinton is making.

And if this happens it'll be a lot easier to sell people on the flaws of the delegate system as a wholem (though to be fair Texas is extremely odd and not a fair representation of the delegate system.)

by world dictator on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:05:48 PM EST

Re: New CNN Texas Poll Signals Danger For Clinton (none / 0)

Actually, they'll probably be as upset as they were in 2000 when Al Gore won by 500,000 votes but lost the election because Bush had more delegates.

You're right. The whole delegate thing should be scrapped.

by poserM on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:46:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama dismisses polls! (none / 0)

Barack Obama should not be caught up in this polling fiasco, it has not served him well as we all know... the phenomena surrounding him makes it unpredictable to know who's gonna show up at the polls, we know there have been lots of people- the only factor is are they out to debunk the Obama phenomena, or they out to validate it! These primaries to date have given us different answers to that riddle

Obama is not inevitable, checkout my latest column at http://www.PeterLuster.com I discuss why Obama is not so inevitable- sorta

Peter Luster
Columnist(freelance)
http://www.PeterLuster.com

Peter Luster Columnist(Freelance) http://www.PeterLuster.om

by Indynap317 on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:26:17 PM EST

forgetting about vt and ri (2.00 / 1)

even if she wins ohio, if she loses vt and ri big, and comes out losing delegates in texas obama could break even, or even gain on march 4. someone needs to tell clinton she's palying cribbage, not poker (even if she is in texas).

Being Normal is for the Mediocre.

by Doug Tuttle on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:48:36 PM EST

James Carville Says Clinton Has to Win TX & OH (2.00 / 1)

"If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done," he said.

He's correct.

by BBCWatcher on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 10:07:03 PM EST

Yawn (none / 0)

Yes, yes, Clinton is doomed, Obama is inevitable. Etc.

Just as Hillary was inevitable a few months ago.

Personally, I'll let the voters actually, um, vote.

by tdraicer on Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 11:07:24 PM EST

Re: Yawn (none / 0)