Saw this headline over at Huffington Post this morning:
Update: Clinton Decides To Camp Out In Wisconsin
But I noticed that the article it pointed to was written on Friday, prior to the article Jonathan linked to yesterday reporting on her "scaling back" her Wisconsin schedule. So which is it? The Clinton campaign has confirmed that in fact Hillary Clinton will not be leaving Wisconsin tomorrow morning after all and will be campaigning there all day. The signal being sent is not only that the Clinton campaign thinks they can win in Wisconsin or at the very least out-perform expectations, but that Obama's leaving the state for events in Ohio on Monday and in Texas on Tuesday doesn't worry them.
The Clinton campaign clearly thinks the expectations game going into Tuesday favors them and is a liability for the Obama campaign, a dynamic that played out on Face The Nation this morning in this exchange between Howard Wolfson and David Axelrod:
Mr. WOLFSON: The Obama strategy here is essentially to debate in states where they're behind, but not debate in states where they're ahead.Mr. AXELROD: That's nonsense.
Mr. WOLFSON: Well, you're debating in Ohio and Texas...
Mr. AXELROD: That's nonsense.
Mr. WOLFSON: ...where you're behind, but you don't want to debate in Wisconsin, where you're ahead. That's flat--that's certainly the case.
Mr. AXELROD: Well, first of all, I don't know whether we're ahead or behind in Wisconsin, but I appreciate the encouragement.
Mr. WOLFSON: Well, polls say that you're ahead. Polls say that you're ahead.
Mr. AXELROD: It's a very close race in Wisconsin, but the point is, Howard...
Mr. WOLFSON: Polls say you're ahead.
As for the polls, most do show Obama up by 4 or 5 points, within the margin of error. The only exception is the latest ARG poll, which shows Clinton up by 6. Good news for Clinton, right? Maybe not. ARG has often released outlier polls that have favored Clinton. In fact, Survey USA's pollster report card shows ARG with a mean error of almost 8%. Not to mention that this result represents a net gain for Obama of 3% since a poll taken 9 days before. But still, the fact that Clinton is remaining in Wisconsin all day on Monday rather than heading out of the state as Obama is doing does seem to indicate, as we posited yesterday, that she knows something we don't know. What exactly that is, however, is anyone's guess.
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