McCain's Iraq Problem

I was watching ABC's "This Week" this morning, and the following exchange jumped out at me. Here's the rough transcript:

John McCain: [Lays out what he sees as signs of progress on the ground in Iraq to refute statements by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that the surge is not working.]

George Stephanopoulos: But if Iraq is meeting those marks, then why not withdraw our troops step-by-step as Senator Obama and Senator Clinton call for?

McCain: Because it has to be dictated by events on the ground, not by an arbitrary date...

Stephanopoulos: But if we are making progress today?

McCain: We are making significant progress today.

The internal inconsistencies of McCain's argument on Iraq are striking. McCain says that America cannot withdraw its troops from Iraq, as the Democrats and indeed the vast majority of Americans believe it should, unless such a withdrawal is "dictated by events on the ground." Yet at the same time, McCain tries to argue that there has been great success on the ground. Leaving aside the clear case that although there has been some reduction in violence in Iraq there has been little to no political movement, which is actually required for the situation in Iraq to improve, McCain is arguing two almost completely disparate things here: Withdrawal must be premised on success, but there can be no withdrawal because there is success.

The establishment media may think this is a winning argument for McCain. Indeed, watching the "This Week" panel, it was clear that the Mark Halperins of the world thought it was a winner for McCain. But at a time when the American people so clearly and desperately want to see the Iraq War ended, I can't see this would be a net positive for McCain in a general election.



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Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

As I understand it, he also recently attempted to downplay his "100 years" comment by saying he meant a military presence similar to that in South Korea.  I honestly don't see how that makes his idea much more palatable - I don't think that Americans want a military presence in Iraq, period.  If he's unwilling to back away from that position, I think it's a winner for our side.


by rfahey22 on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:08:50 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

If McCain persists with this argument in the general election, Obama will destroy him.  This is exactly the kind of thinking that Obama has no patience for.  


by rayspace on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:44:46 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

The Surge has already done pretty much everything it's going to do.  Violence levels are already ticking back up, and it's unclear how long the military can keep up post-Surge troop levels.  Even if the current situation doesn't deteriorate any further, it's hard to see much significant political progress being made in Iraq.  Bush, of course, is just killing the clock.

November is eight and a half months from now.  "The Surge is working" isn't going to be a very credible meme come election time.  If there's another uptick in violence between now and November, which seems to me like almost a virtual certainty, McCain't will be toast.  


by JK47 on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:46:37 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

You "think" it's a winner for our side?!  I think you are being an overly charitable Democratic, the kind that loses every 4 years.

Mark my words: if the Democratic nominee hammers McCain with the "100 years" comment between now and November, he (or she) is virutally a lock to win the general election.


by doug23 on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:47:19 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

I am confused by your statment..
You think he is right or you think he is wrong?

You think McCain will win or McCain will lose?

Your sentences left me utterly confused "you are being an overly charitable democratic" What does this mean?

A Democratic what?

Please explain.


Oh Mammy Dear, we're all mad over here livin' in America
by JDF on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

What the hell?  I agreed with you, moron.


by rfahey22 on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:58:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)


by doug23 on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 02:47:28 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

There were several postive political movements this week in Iraq, including passing a budget.  Democrats need to incorporate this into any message they have on Iraq.


by GingertheDem on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 03:00:23 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

This line of attack is just such "old politics."  It's time we just give up for good.


by rcipw on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 03:16:19 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

I understand McCain is trying to play both sides of the issue.  

In order for him to sound like he's strong on national defense, he can't even allude to the fact that we should start a drawdown, even if it makes sense amongst those who might be willing to elect him.    In essence, he's playing to his base.  Much like Obama is by suggesting that he'll start a withdrawal of troops as soon as he's elected.

The tightrope that the next PotUS will be required to walk is definitely going to be a very narrow wire.

Nevertheless, as a previous commenter has advised, the surge has worked as well as it is going to, and now is the time to start backing off on our troop commitments, in order to bring the Iraqis back to the table, politically, so that we can begin to turn the reins over to them.


=== sbossinger at mac.com www.miamiprogressive.com
by sbossinger on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 03:19:12 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

Actually there's some very small positive political movement. But it's one of those developments that could easily be blown apart by a ton of actors.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/ world/la-fg-iraqlaws14feb14,0,969545.sto ry


by MNPundit on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 04:22:58 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

Here's the bottom line on Iraq: The "American People" don't want to think about it, partly because most of them initally supported it.  McCain's position is not fatal to his campaign.  I'd rather be Obama in this matter, but bragging about how smart you were in a speech you made in 2002 won't get you very far.


by Upstate Dem on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 04:37:34 PM EST

Re: McCain's Iraq Problem (none / 0)

Been there and done that, sort of.  We had a serious violent gang problem locally and (I was law enforcement) we decided to do a "surge" to stamp it out (this is actually an old French strategy used successfully in Algeria to eliminate the FLN).  So we stamped it out, meaning that we fixed them so that if they moved on anybody we busted them.  However, it didn't work if you call elimination of the gang "working."  Our tactic worked, but  because we didn't kill them all, arrest them all, or chase them all out of town it did not work.  They were still around but so long as we were there they did nada.  But as soon as we pulled out that gang controlled the area once again.  We didn't, and don't, have enough law enforcement to eliminate the gangs, no matter what.  


by howard0339 on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 05:27:03 PM EST

Why does Beeton continue to spread falsehoods? (none / 0)

Barack Obama is not leaving Wisconsin early.  he has an event scheduled in Beloit Wi on Monday evening.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community /post/samgrahamfelsen/gGgGDX

Now, if you want to make an analysis that he isn't spending part of Monday in Wisconsin and that is interesting go right ahead but do not continue to spread falsehoods that Obama is leaving Wi early.
I was able to get Chris Bowers to retract this erroneous reporting from his Quick Hits list, but Beeton continues to report and make analyses that are based on faulty information.  Please correct error!!!!  I am not associated with the Obama campaign but am an Obama supporter in Wisconsin.


by petercjack on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 05:27:32 PM EST

Re: Why does Beeton continue to spread falsehoods? (none / 0)

in addition , he cancelled his wi events on sunday as did clinton because of the huge ice and snow storm moving through right now.


by petercjack on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 05:28:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

sorry, posted this on the wrong thread (none / 0)


by petercjack on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 05:31:05 PM EST
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Opportunity Cost should be our talking point (none / 0)

This whole bit about the surge working is one of the duh moments I have heard. Of course, if you send a bunch of extra soldier , there will be SOME KIND OF IMPROVEMENT. But what does that mean? That is just a numbers game. What one needs to tell these idiots is the improvement worth the opportunity cost? A lot of these forces can be used elsewhere.  A lot of the money could be used to improve healthcare WHICH SAVES MORE LIVES than a ridiculous war.
And let's not even get into the fact that this war probably cost more innocent lives and caused  problems in soldiers families(burnout, disease, handicapped problems, death, short fuse leading to domestic arguments) that spillover into parts of society.
by Pravin on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 05:34:14 PM EST


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