With Republicans facing a near-record number of retirements and the Democratic campaign committees holding roughly a $30 million advantage in cash-on-hand over the Republican campaign committees when debts and obligations are taken into account, you might think that things couldn't get worse for the GOP in its efforts to stem their losses in congressional elections this fall. But take a look at the latest generic congressional ballot numbers from Gallup:

The Republican Party last carried a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2004, and Gallup polling conducted in the days preceding the election that year found 47% of likely voters planning to vote for the Republican candidate in their district. In 2006, with their final pre-election support at 44% of likely voters, the Republicans lost control of Congress. Today, even fewer likely voters say they will vote Republican.

According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008, only 41% of adults likely to vote this November say they would support the Republican candidate running in their congressional district. Fifty-five percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

Note that the Gallup generic congressional ballot question has been close to the mark in the past, most recently correctly pegging the Democrats' 7-point victory in the nationwide popular vote for the House of Representatives in November 2006. That, of course, is not to say that the Democrats are destined to win by an even larger margin in 2008 than they did in 2006. The Democrats' lead in 2006 according to Gallup went from nothing in September to 23 points in October to 7 points in 2006, so there's clearly room for fluctuation. Perhaps the poll even finds more movement than actually exists. That said, with almost all signs still pointing downward for congressional Republicans, this poll does not by any means seem out of whack.