Superdelegate paranoia, and why everyone should chill

Seemingly every observer of American politics is now paranoid that 795 superdelegates could decide the next Democratic nominee in some kind of deal in smoke-filled backrooms. The situation has become absurd: There are six months to go until the August convention, and everyone should chill about superdelegate influence. If anything, it is this paranoia which is allowing superdelegates to have an outsized influenced right now.

This post is cross-posted on my blog, at Campaign Diaries.

For one, there is no indication for now that this contest could be close enough that superdelegates make a difference. Obama is leading by 131 pledged delegates according to Campaign Diaries's count, and that margin keeps growing. Considering that Democrats really seem to have divided loyalties in this election, it is highly unlikely that superdelegates break enough in one candidate's way to make up that sort of margin.

Many states still have to hold their nominating contest - including places like Texas, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Is no one recognizing the absurdity of asking superdelegates to respect the will of voters (which is already leading many to change ships from Clinton to Obama) more than 3 months before the final states weigh in? Many supers are now committing to Obama before Ohio and Texas vote and even before the Wisconsin primary. If Clinton makes up the margin in those states and caps it in Puerto Rico, what will those superdelegates do, and will they switch back? If anything, superdelegates at this point look more likely to break the nomination fight Obama's way than Clinton's.

Why not wait three more weeks to make a decision if there are six more months to the convention?

The irony of the situation is apparently escaping superdelegates and most members of the media, who are relaying the fear of a hijacked convention. The New York Times account from this morning, while full of interesting information (Al Gore getting involved) is stunningly contradictory:

Democratic Party officials said that in the past week Mr. Gore and other leading Democrats had held private talks as worry mounted that the close race between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton could be decided by a group of 795 party insiders known as superdelegates.

The issues party leaders are grappling with, they said, include how to avoid the perception of a back-room deal.


Let me get this straight: Al Gore and party leaders are now engaged in backroom deals ("private talks"?!) about how to avoid backroom deals. What is happening now is that superdelegates have stepped in the process to an unprecedented extent because of this debate of "how they should stay out," and they are getting involved months before they have to.

And in the process they are clearly favoring a momentum movement towards Barack Obama by keeping up the storyline of the Clinton campaign trying to steal the nomination from Obama. What is the Clinton campaign supposed to do? How can they give up on trying to court superdelegates when the Obama camp is talking to them as well? After all, both candidates cannot get a majority of delegates without the support of superdelegates at this point.

The best way to respect the pledged delegate wishes would be for the superdelegates to just shut up right now and stop talking about switching votes, about the need to "avoid" backroom deals or respecting the wishes of voters. Last time I checked, the wish of voters is still not known.

The confusion has now become caricatural. Nancy Pelosi joined the chorus yesterday by saying that superdelegates should respect the wishes of voters. But what does that mean: The wishes of their district? Of their state? Or of the overall pledged delegate leader? Does that mean Lewis has to change his vote but not John Kerry and Ted Kennedy?

And then there is John Lewis around who dozens of questions are swirling ever since it was first reported that he was switching his vote from Obama to Clinton. Is he supporting Clinton or Obama? Who is he casting his vote for? And does he see a difference between endorsement and superdelegates? We don't know, because Lewis is now avoiding talking to the press (!), making his position completely unclear.

This post is cross-posted on my blog, at Campaign Diaries.



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You seem to be saying... (none / 0)

...not to worry about superdelegates because they won't make any difference anyway. There are two problems with that--

1. Why do we have them if we won't tolerate them affecting the outcome?

2. If you're wrong and they do affect the outcome it will break the Democratic party into shreads.

I hope you're right and they won't make a difference, but that's just all the more reason to do away with superdelegates.


by Mystylplx on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 01:50:22 PM EST

Re: Superdelegate paranoia, and why everyone shoul (none / 0)

I hope we don't reach that situation where superdelegates make a difference, but it also important to understand that both sides acknowledge that without winning superdelegates, grabbing the nomination seems impossible; unless Obama wins OH and TX, that would evict Hillary out of the race. I don't think that is going to happen and this will end in Puerto Rico.


by American1989 on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 02:15:25 PM EST

e-mail howard dean (2.00 / 1)

we need to change this system for 2012.  no more frontloading and no more super delegates.  personally i like a system where each month there are four or five days where caucuses and/or primaries are allowed to occur, with a maximum number of delegates that can be up for grabs (with special days devoted to the really big states like CA).  in jan for example, there would be, say, two tues and one sat where a maximum of 50 delegates can be up for grabs, and one sat in the middle of the month where about 300 or so delegates are up for grabs.  the states that fill those days would be randomly determined by splitting the country into five regions by geography and making sure that no two states from the same region may be on the same day.  then in feb, the number of delegates increases to 150-200 on each day, and on and on per month.  this i think would be fair and would work.  at least that's my idea.


Being Normal is for the Mediocre.
by Doug Tuttle on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 02:28:40 PM EST

Re: e-mail howard dean (none / 0)

I like the idea of simply having a national primary (no caucuses) and then whoever gets the most votes wins (no delegates.)


by Mystylplx on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 04:29:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Superdelegate paranoia, and why everyone shoul (none / 0)

I look at the Oborgas campaign against the superdelegates as sour grapes, and they are using a scorched earth policy against the party.

Obama ran an insurgent campaign, they knew going in that as such they had to win big/huge to make the superdelegates a non issue.   BTW--this is exactly what Bill Clinton did in '92.  When it became clear that the Obama campaign will at best beat Hillary by very small margins in both delegates and votes--the anti-- superdel campaign suddenly gained primacy.

We are now operating in a milieu of unbelievable hypocrisy.  As touched on elsewhere here--determining the "will of the people" can be tricky.  Just ask an Oborga if the Massachusetts superdels should vote for Hillary, and see what kind of reaction you get.

As for the existence of the superdels themselves--I don't think it is such a terrible idea for the people that built the party and have enjoyed electoral success to have a little more influence than the shlub from (say) Kansas who might have voted for George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

That being said I might be willing to concede that there is way too many of them.


by vivelosdiablosdelsol on Sat Feb 16, 2008 at 04:09:50 PM EST


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