Maybe their internal poll numbers don't look as good.

I'm not sure if this is factored into the polls so far, but if you look at the CNN Exit poll from 2004:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primari es/pages/epolls/WI/index.html

Almost 40% of the Democratic Primary in WI was made up of R's and I's.  This makes the state hard for Clinton.

I thought Hillary was going to be in Wisconsin from Saturday up to primary day.

Hillary will be in Wisconsin from Friday until primary day. I would hardly call that not personally campaigning in that state.

I don't understand why HRC is not campaigning more vigorously in Wisconsin for she could win this state.

Granted she will be there Saturday, Sunday, and Monday but she should have been there earlier.

If she loses this state than this will be because of once again POOR PLANNING.

in the lead up to the primary

The narrative that's most favorable to her is that if she wins Texas and Ohio, then she goes on to Pennsylvania; if she loses either Texas or Ohio, then she's done.  While a win in Wisconsin would be a great asset for her in order to win in Ohio and Texas, it also changes the narrative a little.  If she campaigns aggressively in Wisconsin and loses, there will be more calls for her to drop out and for superdelegates to jump ship.  Taking a more hands-off approach, it keeps the focus on Texas and Ohio now, and keeps the calls to drop out at bay until the results there.

Hillary has the same problem as Rudy, she doesn't want to look like a loser. So everytime she loses, she acts like she wasn't really trying and/or it doesn't mean anything because of the demographics etc.

And Hillary wants to keep making the case that she's running the table in the states that 'count', where these are defined as the states in which she's focused her resources.

Will Hillary find a reason to write off the whole election if Barack gets the nomination?

Perhaps she's listening too much to Mark Penn who tells her what  the "important" states.

Former Clinton Superdelegate Switches to Support Barack Obama

Christine "Roz" Samuels, a superdelegate from Montclair, New Jersey, announced today that she is switching her support from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama...

Samuels cited Obama's ability to unite the country...

I now support Barack Obama because he has brought about a new wave of hope and energy to this country, especially among our young people, who represent our future. People want to see change. Barack can help unite this country and help us embrace our diverse nation.

I am also proud to support Senator Obama because he spoke clearly and forcefully against the war in Iraq from the start. I know he has the leadership to make sure we bring our young men and women home as quickly and carefully as possible, and  ensure all Americans have access to affordable health care.

Samuels served as Secretary-Treasurer of the Newark Teachers' Union, Local 481 from 1995 until 2007. Samuels is a former Commissioner of the Essex County Board of Elections, a member of the Montclair Democratic Committee, and active in the Montclair and state-wide NAACP.

The first of many, I am sure.

Jonathan she's trying to run-up the scores in Ohio and Texas.  That's why shes not in Wisconsin because  there are more delegates at stake in the two other primarys

...Ohio is must win for her.  I am saying that as a strong Clinton supporter.

I think she will make a strong push in Wisconsin, and she can get within a few points still.

I would say there is also the possibility that her internals show her way down there or surging, in which case they think a strong close will help.

I think that if she was writing off the state she wouldn't be on tv there.

She will be there Saturday through Monday.  Those plans were known Monday night.

I think it is the independents.  Perhaps the polls are not accurately projecting the number of indies likely to vote for Obama next Tuesday.  If this is a poll of likely Dems and he is ahead by 5% he will blow her away when the indies are added in.

Obama has already left WI. I am not even sure he plans to go back at all before the primary.

The media is making Wisconsin 'a' if not 'the' final showdown state, however much Hill might wish that wasn't the case. She made a strong populist case yesterday in Ohio, she needs to get that out, and hit Obama from the populist left with it. That's where the votes are.

Hillary may not be in Wisconsin, but Bill sure is.  Look up his calendar of appearances and speeches.  He's in there big time.

Obama 58
Clinton 42..

16 points looks like a solid spread to me. The fact that Clinton won't be in the state until this weekend must show that the internal polling equal doom. Pimping votes ain't easy when you play the victim card all the time.

I love how Quinnipiac does rolling polling. It's to the same degree as when colleges do rolling admissions.

There are parts of Ohio/PA that are pretty redneck.

Hillay goes left Ha Ha Only proves that she is pandering not leading.

Obama is changing America for the better and when he comes down to it he has more actual legislative experience.

How can you sit on the Board at Walmart and claim to support unions?

That the people running Hillary's campaign have any idea what to do next.

I don't see a lot of evidence of a new plan, or creative thinking.

She doesn't have the cash...  I know, I know... she supposedly raised a gagillion dollars in the last two weeks...  If she really has the money, she's definitely not spending it.  That leads me to believe that the money that she's brought in isn't liquid or available to her... or, that she really doesn't care about Wisconsin.

Personally, I don't understand it, either...  If I were her, I'd be there every minute of every day...  you have time to solidify Texas and Ohio...  right now, you can't take another loss...

But I guess they know better, considering they've lost like ten in a row?

Thanks,

Mike

The whole way the Clinton's are handling the Superdelegates and the Primary vs. Caucus issues plays right into their weakness: that they are viewed as being divisive.  Look at this amazing quote by Bill yesterday on the stump, from ABC News:

Of his wife's recent travails, he said, "the caucuses aren't good for her. They disproportionately favor upper-income voters who, who, don't really need a president but feel like they need a change."

On face value it is absurd, as an explanation for the huge wins in Idaho, Nebraska, and Maine patently ridiculous, but beyond that what does it seek to do - pit lower-income Democrats against upper-income Democrats.  Is this the big tent of the Democratic Party?

Maybe, she's like Guiliani and the more time she spends in a state the worse she does?

Wisconsin sits right next to Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois.  I don't see any reasons why we should expect that the results of the WI primary are going to be dramatically different than those states.

bluestate,

Were you responding to my post?  Take a look at the map, and you'll see Wisconsin's neighbors.  Michigan is further away, across the big lake.  WI actually borders MN, IA, and IL.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/ele ctricity/images/us%20map.gif

And as far as Michigan goes, I'd be delighted to see a legitimate primary or caucus take place there.  With the significant African-American population in that state, Obama would rock.  Hillary only got 55% of the vote there when she ran unopposed in that bogus 'primary.'

It's simple Jonathan - if she contests the state hard and loses, it looks like a bigger loss. If she concedes the state and loses, it buffers the loss.

The WORST thing you can do is half ass it. You make sure you lose and you still get stung with the expectation of doing better than you did.

Most people like to spend Valentine's day in the same sate as their spouse, but then again the Clinton's aren't most people.

The Clinton campaign DOES have her scheduled to campaign there for several days, Saturday through Tuesday, I believe is what I read.