I've been asked to shine a little light on the upcoming March 4 Texas primary, the one described by the Clinton campaign and some pundits as Clinton's possible firewall.
But my question is, what firewall? Assuming both campaigns perform at optimum levels, It is all but guaranteed that Obama and Clinton will wind up with a more or less even split of the delegates here, based on the delegate apportionment process and the candidates' strengths and weaknesses in the state.
Clinton may not lose ground in Texas. I guess that's what makes a firewall. But it's virtually guaranteed that she can't gain ground either. If the national delegate count showing Obama up by 120 or so pledged delegates is close to correct, she'll need big delegate margins here and elsewhere.
Clinton's delegate comeback won't start here. She'd be trying to end a drought with a tear.
The Lone Star State revealed below.
Before you read on, full disclosure: I support Obama.
But Hillary Clinton remains the only presidential candidate who ever hugged me. I like her, admire her and have nothing negative to say about her. Despite my preference, I'll give as objective a look as I can.The conventional wisdom is that Clinton has an edge because of her strengths among Hispanics, her support among women, her win in Oklahoma, and Arkansas' proximity. Hispanics may be 25 percent of the primary turnout. Women will probably make up 51 percent or so.
Obama's strengths here come from a fast-growing, younger, more progressive Democratic base with victories under its belt, and surprising support among independent and moderate-to-conservative types. The support among African American voters will be strong.
But you've heard all that. Here's what you might not have heard. I'll start with delegate projections, because that's most important. There a good, lengthy description here.
Texas apportions 126 delegates based on returns in 31 state senate districts. 25 more pledged party and state official delegates will be chosen at the state convention in June, based on sign-ins at the convention. 42 at-large delegates will be apportioned at the state convention based on convention sign-ins [I corrected this this morning based on Glen Maxey's kind and accurate observation in the comments below]. There are 35 superdelegates.
Senate districts were assigned delegate totals based on Democratic turnout in the 2004 and 2006 elections. Here's a made-up scenario I ran just to show how even the delegate count is likely to be, and how hard it will be for Clinton to start a comeback here.
This is a very, very optimistic scenario from a Clinton point of view:
Clinton wins the large Hispanic districts with 4 delegates each by 62 percent or more. This unlikely outcome would give her a 3-to-1 delegate split in those districts. Award her majority wins in Hispanic districts with 3 delegates, splitting 2-1. Award Obama an edge in two African American districts, one in Houston, the other in Dallas. Split the Austin (Travis County) delegates evenly, even though Obama will win Austin comfortably). Split all the other districts, awarding Obama 1 extra delegate to make up for all the African Americans in East Texas and independent and moderate voters in the 20 GOP Senate districts we're just going to split evenly.
How's this turn out? Clinton, 64 delegates, Obama, 62 delegates.
Then, with regard to caucus-chosen delegates, eliminate the advantage Obama seems to have enjoyed in previous caucus states and say that organizationally the two campaigns are even. Give Clinton the odd-numbered delegate.
How's this turn out? Clinton 34 delegates, Obama, 33 delegates. Overall its Clinton 98, Obama 95.
If Clinton wanted to net a a 20-delegate gain, I'm guessing she would have to carry the entire state by more than 62 or 63 percent. Maybe more. I just don't see how that happens.
Still, the contest here will be hard fought. Clinton knows she must keep the national delegate deficit small, and that a popular vote win will help her make the argument, if she makes the argument, that superdelegates should overturn the pledged delegate counts. Also, she's no quitter, and Obama could make a terrible mistake.
Some Important of Fun Things About Texas to Keep in Mind
1. There are some important and fun things about Texas.
2. Clinton was a friend of the late Ann Richards, who still has plenty of loyal supporters here. In a funny way though, this advantage may come with a disadvantage. When Hillary hit the national stage, Ann was Texas Democratic women's hero. Hillary was not the presence here she has been in other places.
3. As near as I can tell, the spin about political friction between Hispanics and African Americans is way overstated, especially when it comes to symbolically important offices -- away from localized conflicts -- like president, governor, or senator. Locally, Hispanics have elected African American mayors in Houston and Dallas. African Americans supported 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tony Sanchez by overwhelming margins, just as they had Hispanic statewide candidates in the past. Hispanics overwhelmingly supported Ron Kirk that same year.
4. Texas is a very expensive state in which to buy effective levels of television. Second only to California. Probably to Obama's advantage.
5. Early voting starts on February 19. When I managed Ann Richards 1990 primary, the primary race started before the Democratic National convention in 1988. Two years before the election. This one is starting two weeks before early voting. I have no way of telling what the short fuse does, though it probably hands a bit of an advantage to Hillary.
6. My rough delegate scenario above isn't wildly wrong only because the delegate process is known, and the election numbers it takes to alter an even split are so unlikely. But be suspicious of anyone who tells you what the turnout will be like, and have a little sympathy for exit pollsters, who can't possibly know how to select precincts with any precision.
7. We've never had an election like this. Haven't ever had a presidential primary that mattered. Period. There's no Bush on the ballot here. Texas is moving Democratic. District level campaigns are just targeting all voters. And their children. So, like I said, take pre-election polls and exit polls (at least with regard to projections) with a grain of salt and a shot of tequila.
8. Nobody wants Karl Rove to move back here.
9. He's not really from here, you know.
10. Neither is Bush.
11. Yes. My list is louder. It goes to 11. And No. 11 is, I'm very sleepy and apologize for any errors above. But I wanted this to be available in the morning. So there you have it.
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