crickets

See subject.

It will be interesting to see how, or perhaps if, the voters will react to Clinton's less than full commitment to campaign in the State.  Obama was there last night, she chose El Paso.  She's not coming until this weekend.   I think we've already seen in places like South Carolina where she split early, local voters are sensitive to these impressions.  Sending Bill as your stand-in does not show respect for the local voters.

Obama is going to perform well amongst Latinos in Texas.

His campaign has opened the first office in Dallas where there is the highest Latino population in the state.

I think Clinton's firewall is going to be burned down come March 4th, 2008.

A new Brown University poll in Rhode Island shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama, 36% to 28%, in the Democratic presidential race.

Rhode Island's primary is on March 4.

My girl's gonna run the table on your guy.

Look at the momentum in the string of SV polls in the state:

September: Clinton +22
December: Clinton +7
February: Obama +4

This has been the consistent pattern everywhere so far, and except for NH where Hillary reversed it in the last 36 hours, the momentum has continued right through the election.  On top of that, Obama has been able to close about 10 points as soon as he starts campaigning in any state just due to getting over familiarity hurdles.  While WI may already be a little more pre-exposed to Obama due to at least the southern part of the state being in the Chicago market, I also think Obama is going to get a significant boost from yesterday's primaries by now assuming the frontrunner role and inevitability storyline.  

I expect WI to be a comfortable but not overwhelming 10-15 point win for Obama.  Who knows though?  Stranger things have happened in this primary season already.  

If the lead stretches out to 20 points here, too, I think you will see Hillary's OH & TX firewalls crumble as well.

If Hillary does win WI, it will be with a bare majority. But a win will count as a big win for someone considered on the verge of retirement for the 10th time this campaign!

Sorry, but the candidates are NOT approximately tied.

Even if you count the super-delegates, Obama is ahead.  If you don't count them, he is FAR ahead of Clinton.

Assertions such as 'FL and MI WILL count' are useless as analysis.  It shows that you are projecting your last hopes instead of looking at the situation realistically.

I bet that if I looked back on your posting history, I would find other assertions that Clinton 'WILL' win certain states; ones that she lost, and in most cases, lost by a lot.  

I wouldn't expect to receive many more super-delegate endorsements in the time between now and March 4th.  Nope.  It would be a foolish move, for people who have already held out to see which way the wind was blowing, to choose her - when the odds of her winning are now pretty small.

Wow, talk about trying to find a needle of optimism in a haystack of inevitability! Polls taken BEFORE the eight-state/district/commonwealth win streak mean absolutely NOTHING. If Obama was ahead BEFORE the Big Mo, just imagine what his numbers must be like now.

To everyone at MyDD, I'll offer this piece of advice from Confucius:  It's easier to ride a horse in the direction it's going.

Things keep changing. I'm not a big fan of polls because they are (almost) always off. But if we string together the 3 polls from the last few weeks (in fact the only polls in WI this year) this is what we see.

Public Policy Polling 2/11: O:50, C:39
Strategic Vision 2/8-2/10: O:45, C:41
American Research Group: 2/6-2/7: C:50, O:41

These are all polls that were done in the last 7 days. The best explanation may be mementum but I doubt it. more likely (some of) the differences in results are based on their polling methods.

In general, I agree that WI is close, even if it seems to be trending toward Obama.

She has no money...  I don't care what the press releases say, her "new" funds are not liquid or available to her... She literally cannot afford to go to Wisconsin, and definitely not Hawaii.  

She's spending it all on Texas... it is her most vulnerable firewall state, 'cos of the mixed caucus thing...  Ohio is her safest state, and I think she will only make a token appearance or two here... Judging by the response from people I've talked to, she is surprisingly safe here (Ohioans have mostly lost all hope, so Obama's message isn't resonating here very well).

People in Wisconsin are saying that she's pretty much conceded the race there...  Her WI supporters seem to be feeling ignored at the moment...  But, I guess she's going to WI this weekend, so we'll see if that holds up...

What's Strategic Vision's record... at the moment, the only polling outfit that has been dead right for most of the season has been SUSA.

Good news for Obama. The lower the expectations for him the better. Predictions of a blow out is the worst thing for an insurgent campaign.

Obama is the underdog, always. Makes everyone work harder to win.  

Still waiting to see some February TX polling.  He was only down 10 in SUSA at the end of January.  I'd have to guess it's probably tighter now (as evidenced by Clinton's heading straight there rather than to WI).

He can survive even double-digit losses in TX, OH and PA, and even win the nomination even if that happens and Clinton gets the most favorable outcome to her on MI/FL, so long as he splits the delegates with her in the other remaining contests.
She cannot survive a double loss, even a narrow one, on 3/4.  She could survive a "split decision", so long as she won huge in Pennsylvania and edged him in Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico.  Then she would still need FL/MI and the help of superdelegates to win.

If she loses Wisconsin and Hawaii big, and the polls in TX and OH start to shift in Obama's direction, perhaps the graceful thing for her to do is bow out.

If Hillary didn't fight like a caged wild animal in every contest from now on.  She's losing perceived momentum, she's shedding key advisers, and there's noises being made about whether the big money is going to stick with her any longer.

She has to win somewhere, and now.  Wisconsin has to at least be a very close thing for her, and Ohio must be an outright, solid win.  Texas is going to be tough for both candidates, because for all of its statewide pride, Texas is very much a number of regions, and each will want (and deserve) their share of specific attention.

I'm not so foolish as to pretend to know where things will go from here, but the direction is downward for her now, and she needs some serious uplift, or she's done.  So she has to fight hard from here on out.

No one should assume anything is in the bag, as a result.

Hillary Clinton is making a play for the state.  She is actively campaigning there.  She is running ads.  Chelsea Clinton has been camped out there this week.  The Demographics favor her strongly.

If she loses here, it isn't because she didn't focus her attention on WI.  It will be a major defeat and should be spun as nothing less.

IIRC, this poll does not take into accounts independents and Wisconsin is an open primary

Wisconsin is Clinton country. She has led there in all the polls since summer. She should win there with the demographics. Obama should hope to keep her winning margin to a minimum.
Hawaii is a wildcard. Inouyne endorsed HRC and he is a big deal. She could sneak out a pair of wins next tuesday which puts her back in the ballgame.

Obama supporters know the drill..fight like we are down by 50pts in Wisconsin and Hawaii. I am willing to canvas in Hawaii for Obama if needed. We are buried in snow in the midwest.

This is the 50 state strategy at work with Obama.

WI: Obama blowout. It was trending his way before 8 blowout wins in a row, I don't see why that would be reversing at all. Although, things happen, its never in the bag until its, you know, in the bag.

If candidates don't bother competing in states they don't think they can win, they just alienate the voters because voters feel like they don't matter to the candidate. That doesn't help Hillary's pre-existing reputation as cold and calculating in the eyes of undecideds or lukewarm Hillary supporters.

People want someone who's going make the effort to make an impression on them, to show them that they and their vote matters, that they can be the change they want to see. They are only getting that from one candidate.

And he's in the lead now.  

obama looks to have gotten 56 delegates out of Virgina. So much for Todd's overly optimistic assertion that the delegate count would be somewhat close (46o-37c?).

hope can cloud your perception of reality I suppose.

Now it's time to beat the Clinton machine to a pulp because we can't let it get back to full strength ever again. There would be nothing sweeter than to  watch Hillary Clinton's legacy to end in humiliating defeat to Barack OBama.

If Wisconsin is Clinton country, it's an island against Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa. I find it hard to believe that if all those states with relatively similar demographics voted for Obama, Wisconsin will pull a fast one and change it up. Who knows though, it could happen.

This is what I feel like happens every primary day: Obama will win more than expected, but then the focus shifts to the leads Clinton has in upcoming states. However, most of those leads are leads she's had since the beginning with her name ID, and before Obama came in with his message. To me, the difference between the camps is that Obama's seems to be convincing more people in more places, whereas Clinton is relying on past support, either from Bill or from early early on in the process.

Hawaii is hard to guess. Obama is from there, but to me, that's a bit like the Clinton people pointing out Hillary was born and raised in Chicago to try and win votes there. I think in the end it will go to Obama, but maybe more closely than expected.

Wisconsin will probably track national poll trends and Obama is gaining, at least now.

As for FL and MI, the decision about whether to seat the delegates in made by the credentials committee.

And the credentials committee?  Its members are in proportion to the number of pledged delegates won.

Thus if Obama wins the most pledged delegates by the end of the voting, the majority of credentials committee delegates will be his supporters.

Hillary Supporters - don't listen to this baloney.  Hillary is still in this race and if it ends up close, the Florida and Michigan delegates will be seated.  

But what is true, is all this talk of Hillary not being able to win will discourage supporters. SO we need to get the word out. NOW.  There are big delegate states just waiting to cast their votes for Hillary.  

ANYONE who wants to help.  Go to hillaryclinton.com make calls, print out fliers, pass them out, donate.  If voters hear that Hillary is still fighting for them, they will fight for her.  

Experience trumps rhetoric; Strength trumps weakness; Commitment trumps compromise.  

If America really wants change, if it wants the troops home, health insurance; a strong economy with jobs that pay good wages, then Hillary is their woMAN!!!

Go HILLARY!!!

There so much "Obama is inevitable" noise on these forums, it is kinda funny to still see some posts arguing how MyDD is pro Hillary.  If anything  this has been one of the few web sites that have given both sides an equal coverage.

We, as Hillary supporters, got to stay strong and united.  There are some big contests coming up. WI is definitely important and I am hoping Hillary will pull it off or keep the margin small.

Just a couple of months ago MSM was beating "Hillary is inevitable" drums and to tell the truth I was on the bandwagon.  Now the sides have switched, but as we learned before it doesn't take much to turn the situation on its head.

There are still 20 states remaining, so there are plenty of chances for Hillary to get back into it.
Obama is up only 40 Delegates on CNN, so Hillary doesn't need to win remaining states by 60/40 like some people say.  Strong wins in Ohio and Texas should be sufficient, complemented by splits in remaining smaller states.

There is a good article about Hillary's chances in remaining states.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/02/the_democratic_race_movin g_for.html
It points out that most remaining states actually have demographics that are much better for Hillary then Obama.

My prediction for Wisconsin:

Obama 56 Clinton 44

However, I believe that prediction is way too conservative for me. The turnout among young adults, and minorities will be explosive because the GOTV will be phenomenal.

"You want her to quit because BHO FINALLY caught her?"

Obama has been ahead of Hillary in pledged delegates since day one.

But hey, keep on spinning....

On a side note, nice of Hillary to not thank any of her voters for their support when she spoke on Saturday night and again last night. Was also a bit classless to not congratulate Obama on his wins, but the slight towards her own supporters is even worse.

I know, I know, none of these 8 (soon to be 10) states that Barack has won consecutively mean anything, right? At least thats the spin coming from the very same people that claim Florida and Michigan do count.

There is no reason why Obama won't expand his lead here in Wisconsin. Hillary isn't even campaigning in Wisconsin until Saturday. IT appears MYDD is more confident of her chances in Wisconsin than the CLinton campaign is.