So what are the expectations rules for tomorrow?

by Drummond, Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:58:19 AM EST

Okay, so what does Barack Obama have to do to "win" tomorrow?  He's ahead by double digits in the polls for Virginia and Maryland.  He exceeded expectations all weekend, including a greater than 20 percent win in Louisiana.  So under the protocols of expectations he must win both Maryland and Virginia tomorrow by at least 20 points.  He is expected to exceed expectations.  A 19 point win does not exceed expectations, so it should be interpreted as a major setback for him.

Meanwhile, anything less than a 50 point spread in D.C. would be considered a disaster for Obama.  In the expectations game, a black vote is only 2/3 of a real vote.  And the dominance of black voters in D.C. makes it impossible to exceed expectations.  Obama can win 100 percent of the D.C. vote and still fail to exceed them.  But he must win at least 75 percent of the votes for it to be anything other than abject defeat.  Ideally he must win over 90 percent.

Meanwhile, Clinton must stay within 30 points and the handicap gives her the draw.

Am I missing anything?




Tags: Primaries, Obama, Clinton, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, expectations (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 19 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re (none / 0)

lol. Setting the bar a little high for Obama to even give him credit, are we?

I think the issue is delegates, not popular vote. Clinton has pretty much abandoned DC and Maryland. But she is making an effort in Virginia to pick up delegates in key areas. So if we are to measure her success, that's the state.


by washingtoncritic on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:03:16 AM EST

Re: Re (none / 0)

Oh, don't be putting expectations on Clinton!!


by Drummond on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:25:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the rules for tomorrow? (none / 0)

re-reading what you said, I am shocked at this statement.

"In the expectations game, a black vote is only 2/3 of a real vote. "

WTF is that???!!


by washingtoncritic on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:08:40 AM EST

Re: So what are the rules for tomorrow? (none / 0)

That's just a little snarkiness, I imagine, aimed at the folks who discount all our victories because demos/caucus format/whatever else pops in their head.


by DPW on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:18:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the rules for tomorrow? (none / 0)

It's a reference to the Constitution.  I was trying to make a point.


by Drummond on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:26:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the rules for tomorrow? (none / 0)

The ratio was three-fifths, actually.


by PantherDem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:28:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the rules for tomorrow? (none / 0)

Oops.


by Drummond on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:06:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

Clinton wins the blue collar area of the Shenandoah Valley in Virgina .

All out areas go to Obama i.e. Northern Va and Central Va.

I expect him to win by 20 points , same as in Maryland.

She wins a decent amount of delegates in Virginia and possibly maryland.

DC is a major blowout.

Wisconsin would be better for her , because her blue collar /rural voters are still voting for her.

outside of madison and a few other areas , wisconsin looks like missouri.


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:28:12 AM EST

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

"outside of madison and a few other areas , wisconsin looks like missouri."

So we should expect a comfortable Obama win in WI, then?


by PantherDem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:29:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

Did obama win missouri comfortably ?

He lost all the rural areas , however he turned out kansas city and st louis where the population is.

Delegates was a tie but he won popular vote by a hair.

If you remeber Clinton won all over the map cnn was showing in Missouri on election night except in kansas and st. louis

I don't know what would happen in Wisconsin but Obama hasn't been able to appeal to her blue collar base much , if that holds up that will bode well for ohio and wisconsin.


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:35:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

He won Missori narrowly, but you said that Wisconsin "outside of Madison and a few other areas" is like Missorui. If those "other areas" favor him, as Madison certainly will, it wouldn't be such a narrow win, would it?


by PantherDem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:38:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

in terms of its rural / urban areas.

if he can turn out his voters in madison , racine ,green bay , milwaukee and maybe kenosha and run up the numbers there , then we can see a repeat of Missouri.

He wins by a hair in the urban areas and college towns but loses in rural areas .

Delegates may be split equally.

I don't know what the polls say now but its not going to be a blowout like virginia and maryland.

Its an agricultural state , largely white .


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:47:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

clinton may even be leading , who knows.


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:49:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations? (none / 0)

A big win for Obama tomorrow is if he nets enough delegates to eclipse Clinton's super delegate lead by most estimations. Not by myDD estimations, because I'm pretty sure people around here think she's actually winning pledged delegates, but by realistic estimations.

A big Hillary victory would be a win in one of the states. A decent Hillary showing would be single digit losses in Virginia and Maryland.


by beanbagz on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:55:48 AM EST

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

If Obama doesn't get at least 67% of the vote in Maryland and Virginia and 90% of the vote in DC I think we can all agree Clinton wins the moral victory and should earn a big bounce.

or

something like that


by Mark Matson on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:24:18 AM EST

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

A big win would be If Obama supporters calmed down and realized that the election isn't over...

That is what this is about isn't it?

You are trying to "Win" before all the votes are counted so you can pressure the Hillary team to quit.

Obama will win up until March 4 everyone knows that.

Obama will lose after March 4 most everyone knows that.

Trying to get momentum for pushing Hillary out before her big states are up is what you are really about....

Obama has run a real race and even though he will probably come up short and Hillary will get the nomination he has already won in a sense.  If he can stay out of jail and his cult doesn't totally self destruct he will be president someday.

Its even possible that Obama will get enough momentum to win Hillarys states but that won't be clear until after March 4 when her states come up.


I believe in Hillary
by sonofdonkeykong on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:12:05 AM EST

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

'Her states?'  What is this the Treaty of Vienna?  Of all the diarists around here lately I have to say you take the cake for inverse squared profligacy and insight, and you are following in some mighty deep footsteps.  We have had some legendary giants walking here in recent months.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:34:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So what are the expectations rules for tomorro (none / 0)

He is stronger in his states
She is stronger in her states

Surely you have heard pundits talk like this.

Or is this your first election?


I believe in Hillary
by sonofdonkeykong on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:08:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Virginia is must win for Hillary (none / 0)

A swing state that she needs to show strength in.  Obama-Webb, Obama-Kaine, Obama-Bayh, Obama-Clinton (maybe).


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 08:17:11 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: