Potomac Primary Turnout

There seems to be some healthy hand-wringing on the tubes today about Virginia turning into another New Hampshire -- Obama voters complacent, Independents going for McCain, Clinton ekeing out a win -- but by the look of turnout in Virginia today, I don't think there's going to be much of a divergence from the pre-election polls.

From WaPo:

Officials in parts of Virginia have received a record number of absentee ballots, a key barometer of turnout. In Fairfax County, the state's largest jurisdiction, requests for Democratic absentee ballots have more than tripled over 2004. "Saturday was one of our busiest absentee voting days for any election, not just for any primary," said Jackie Harris, the Fairfax general registrar.

This trend is borne out by on the ground reports of huge turnout in the Democratic primary throughout Virginia over at Raising Kaine. I'm amazed how early people get their butts up to vote, but even at the earliest of hours, people are reporting large crowds. They're also reporting far more Dem voters than Republicans (by a 2 to 1 margin in some polling places,) even in red districts. This bodes very well for November.

Of course, this somewhat cryptic update from NotLarrySabato will serve to sober any hopeful Clinton backers:

...based on the emails I am getting, Barack Obama is winning Virginia in an epic blowout.

Turning to Maryland, here's WaPo's take:

In Maryland, Democratic leaders predicted that turnout in the party could reach 1 million voters, shattering the record. Four years ago, about 470,000 Democrats voted in the primary. The record is about 596,000 in 1976, when Jerry Brown defeated Jimmy Carter in the state.

Interestingly, The Baltimore Sun is reporting that at a couple precincts in Obama stronghold Howard County, while excitement is high, turnout appeared lighter than expected this morning.

Early morning voting was a bit more subdued at one polling place in Howard County.

Election judges at the Owen Brown Interfaith Center in Columbia were surprised at the light turnout in the first half-hour of operations. Chief judge Art Blume said 38 voters had appeared by 7:30 a.m. and the room was nearly empty.

"When you listen to the news, it's really a spirited race, but you never can tell," he said.

Pearl Atkinson Stewart, another poll judge, said voters have been much more numerous in the past. "It's very light," she said. "In the morning, we usually have a long line out front."

This report is echoed by yellowdem1129 who says that "there is no Obamania in my town," which lies in the heart of Obama's base in Prince Georges County Maryland.

Weather could also very well be a factor. Word is that there is some truly wintry weather in VA, and my friend up in Baltimore reports that he, like many people, won't be voting until after work, which is when "weather is due to get ugly."

Anyone vote today in VA, DC or MD? Care to share your experience?

Update [2008-2-12 13:35:21 by Todd Beeton]:On MSNBC just now, Chuck Todd echoed the high turnout reports in Virginia but warned that he's looking to Virginia to maybe be the one surprise tonight:

The Wilder effect, the 1989 governor's race, [Douglas Wilder] was up by double digits leading up to election day and he hung on by one percentage point I believe it is and he became the first African-American governor of Virginia...It looks like Obama is going to run away with Virginia, you look not just at polling but there are some turnout indicators I've heard about today that make you think he could do very well but that's the one state I would be cautious on.



Display:


yellowdemm (none / 0)

is probably not the best source for objective news about Hillary and Obama.


by highgrade on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:56:32 PM EST

Re: yellowdemm (none / 0)

LOL.  His town is yellowdemville.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:25:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: yellowdemm (none / 0)

I live in Maryland, and I work in DC and VA. I can tell you that 95% of my co-workers intend to vote after work....regardless of the bad weather.


by rapcetera on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

DC turnout (none / 0)

I voted at 9 PM in DC. I live in a residential, mostly African-American neighborhood in Northwest DC and there were about three people at my poll. Very quiet. I've heard there was more of a turnout at other polls however.


by alexmhogan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:58:57 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I actually think I care more about Wynn-Edwards today.  The huge turnout can't be bad news for her, right?


"I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned."--John McCain
by lorax on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:59:58 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

It can definitely be bad for her.  One of her major problems is name recognition, and if a big swathe of voters turn out who haven't heard of her, even if they don't like Wynn, they might well vote for him anyway.

Here's hoping that's not the case, though.


Sam L
by Sam L on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:39:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Dont know, lower informed voters tend to go with the incumbant, who is better known.


by micha1976 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:44:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

When they are happy with government they do.  When unhappy they vote against all the incumbents.

At least, that's what I do and I'm pretty average.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reisterstown (NW Baltimore County) (none / 0)

I voted, about 20 people in line ahead of me.  3/8 of an inch of snow on the ground or so, turnout lower than expected.  I am in congressional district 3, John Sarbanes running with nominal opposition, for whom I voted on general principles of opposition to dynastic politics.   Pulled Obama all the way, candidate and alternates, though I respect those who pulled others all the way for the Presidential nomination.  Nobody outfront with campaign literature, my precinct is average-slightly above average income moderate suburban Democratic (i.e. I am to its median point's left.)

Tonight will be working 30+miles away in Rockville, Montgomery County, in MD-4, may close a few precincts if asked.  Then to the victory party in Largo.


by Crablaw on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:01:21 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Voted in Bethesda, MD today at about 8 AM.  Turnout was not nearly as high as when I voted for Webb in Arlington 2 years ago(having recently moved) in the sense that there was no 10 minute line.  But there was a decent amount of people. I don't know the exact demographics, but Bethesda should have lots of women voters for Hillary but educated voters for Obama.


by satyreddy on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:05:59 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

btw, didn't see a single Hillary ad at all during the entire election cycle.  Saw plenty of Obama ads.  Finally saw occasional Hillary supporter with lit at metro station, but didn't seem remotely as enthusiastic as Obama supports who get more car honks.  


by satyreddy on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:07:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Actually I saw quite a few Clinton ads. Good ones too.


by alexmhogan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Has anyone analyzed why the educated vote (presumably persons with higher education) is going for Obama, whereas the white blue collar vote is going for Hillary?

Also does anyone know who those old Reagan Democrats are voting for?


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:14:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (2.00 / 1)

A quote from Mike Huckabee might explain it:

Americans aren't looking for someone to fix the carburator, they're looking for someone to drive the car.

Maybe blue collar workers approach problems in a fix the carburator way.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In VA, and MD (2.00 / 1)

voting happens before and after work because most people commute to the District, which is not where they vote. Even those who live in the District are at or almost at work at 9AM. At my polling place at 7:30AM in a mostly African-American area of Prince George's County there was a very long line that took an hour for me to wade through.  That is unusual high for my precinct.

I find it sickening that some Billary supporters are hoping for and even cheering low black turnout.  If you feel that way, you should re-register for the GOP or worse.


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:09:55 PM EST

Re: In VA, and MD (none / 0)

"I find it sickening that some Billary supporters are hoping for and even cheering low black turnout.  If you feel that way, you should re-register for the GOP or worse."

You just made that crap up.  I reviewed all the comments and nobody was cheering for low black turnout.  

Stop the hate folks.


by wasabi on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:41:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In VA, and MD (none / 0)

Before you accuse someone of lying, you should truly read ALL OF THE COMMENTS today.  Which, in and of itself sounds like a lie.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/12/1141 38/204


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:43:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In VA, and MD (none / 0)

I read the diary "I voted today (low turnout): look for Hillary upset victories" and all the posts and did not see one person say "I sure hope the BLASCKS don't show up".
You do appear to be frothing for no apparent reason.

Stop the hate!


by wasabi on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:55:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If you can't (none / 0)

detect the poster's excitement because of the low turnout, either dumb or just playing dumb.


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In VA, and MD (none / 0)

No one is cheering low black turn-out.  I think that blogger was just making an observation.  I will give benefit of the doubt.  Can you??


by findthesource on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In VA, and MD (none / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/12/1141 38/204


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:44:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In VA, and MD (none / 0)

I read the diary "I voted today (low turnout): look for Hillary upset victories" and all the posts and did not see one person say "I sure hope the BLASCKS don't show up".
You do appear to be frothing for no apparent reason.

Stop the hate!


by wasabi on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If you can't (none / 0)

detect the poster's excitement because of the low turnout, either dumb or just playing dumb.


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In VA, and MD (2.00 / 1)

I am sickened that some prominent supporters of Senator Obama continue to use clearly sexist language to refer to Senator Clinton.  

"Billary" is an unacceptable, thoroughly sexist, Republican-sponsored frame.  


by mgee on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:11:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hypersensitive bullshit (none / 0)


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Misogynistic bullshit. (none / 0)


by mgee on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yadda Yadda Yadda (1.00 / 1)

It sounds like your life is going to be full of being pissed off at non-PC things.  Get over it.


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:30:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yadda Yadda Yadda (1.00 / 1)

The Hillary Haters have gone over the deep end.


by JFK464 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:46:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yadda Yadda Yadda (none / 0)

Billary, while rude, does not seem sexist to me.  It shows her political alliance with her husband, her loudest and most aggressive advocate.


by Crablaw on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yadda Yadda Yadda (1.00 / 1)

Yea like calling someone macaca, what difference could that make?


by NCJim on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:53:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Todd - lots of Virginia's vote after work. Hillary could close some gaps later in the day.


by grlpatriot on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:10:52 PM EST

I was thinking the same thing (none / 0)

The first round of exit polling that was put up in Feb 5 showed Clinton trailing in places she won.  The first round of exit polling had her down  double digits in Mass.

I wondered later of more Hillary supporters are the type to vote at night, on the way home from work.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (2.00 / 1)

It is a logical fallacy to assume that just because there may be lower turnout that it benefits Hillary Clinton. Lower turnout may mean that less Hillary supporters are showing up than expected and Obama supporters are showing up as expected, or that both HIllary and OBama supporters are showing in proportionally less amounts than expected.


by mecarr on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:15:55 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I live in the district but work in Dulles, VA.  Will be voting after work today and will report on the lines when I am home.  

Hillary supporter here.  Haven't seen a single Hillary ad on TV, but MANY Obama ads.


by Scope441 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I in the Potomac Primary area,and I've just seen a Hillary ad on TV, and no Obama. It was during the show Brothers and Sisters


by Enviro on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:36:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I am Hill fan too.  That may be a oney issue.  Do you think she purposely ceded potomac primaries??

If so, she needs to step up Wisconsin, OH, and TX.


by findthesource on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

With Maryland using touch-screen DIEBOLD voting machines, I alway vote by absentee ballot. I voted last week and don't have to worry about the bad weather or a "lost in the ether" vote either.


"Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." -- Denis Diderot
by Stoic on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:23:43 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Voted in Bethesda at about 11:00- turn out was steady then but I heard it was heavy before the workday began. Some signs- a couple homemade Obama signs which I think are way cooler than the professional ones. No one was outside pamphleting, our wonderful dedicated precinct captain was hanging out inside- too cold.

I don't really see how Obama doesn't win here. The state is tailor made for him- the Democratic Party here is made up entirely of African Americans and white upper-middle class professional/creative class types.


by js noble on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:33:35 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Another account from this Maryland blog:

http://freestatepolitics.us/showDiary.do ;jsessionid=9E9D6042D268BD25CFAD10C17B7A 9418?diaryId=1208


by pg4obama on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:35:03 PM EST

I swear people make half this stuff up (none / 0)

Yeah some twenty somthing is singing and skipping after just performing the activity of voting?

Imagine what she must do after getting a getting a pay raise or a really nice Valentines gift.

Sheesh.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:40:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I swear people make half this stuff up (none / 0)

Yeah, that story did paint a weird picture. But, we're dealing with a cult here, you know (I'm an Obama supporter, before someone jumps on me for that remark).

Actually, while I was a poll checker during the SC primaries (in Charleston), I did see a few crazy things. There was this one Nigerian man and his family. His two kids (boys, both between 5 and 7 years-old) sported huge afros and were dressed in a mixture of space suits and traditional African garb. I have to admit, they looked pretty cool. His wife was a bit of a hippie (FWIW, she was white, he was black), but the kind of hippie who knows how to use an axe. That is, she could kick you ass if hadn't just smoked that splif.

Anyway, while he [Nigerian man] was standing in line, he starts rubbing his "prayer stick" or something (like a sceptre or staff wrapped in elaborate cloth), yelling about Bill Clinton and placing a curse on him. Honestly, I don't what the hell he was talking about. It involved lots of bible verses, some voodoo-ish stuff, hatred for Bill Clinton, and his star trek-sterfarian kids running around the place. Meanwhile, his wife is taking pictures of all this on her digital phone.

I guess you had to be there.


by DPW on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:16:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

rubbing his prayer stick? (none / 0)

Where I am from we call that something else.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:45:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Very tough to tell.  When I voted in NJ, I thought for sure that she lost the state.  I live in an Obama-fan area and the place was saturated with Obama signs.  However, she won the state....same in NY and Mass.  It is really hard to tell.

However, Obama has so much money and grass-roots on his side.  It is really tough to beat that.  I am continuing to have hope, and I continue to volunteer and send money, but I will not be surprised either way.  


by findthesource on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:48:49 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I'm in NJ too, in an extremely pro-bama town, but I wasn't surprised by the loss. We are an exceptionally Democratic machine-driven state. Once the Governor, the Senators, and the unions went Clinton, she all at once had a dream GOTV operation with minimal effort on her part. While it didn't make Obama fans happy in the primary, it is one of the main reasons Dems win big every general (and heck, even statewide and local, lately) election and bodes very ill for any Republican hopes in November.


by jamfan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I'm in NJ, too, in the Western part outside Trenton.  I was the only one in the polling place when I went in.  There were only a smattering of signs or any sort of campaign material anywhere near me.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:40:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

i live in nyc, but was in paterson on election day.  i was shocked by the amount of obama fervor in that town.  signs everywhere, cars with loudspeakers going around blasting GOTV for obama messages in spanish.  that really made me think that maybe obama could win the state.  

a friend who lived in the area later told me that the jersey city-newark-area machine lined up behind obama, though.  from what i understand most of the rest of the machines got behind hillary, so what i was seeing was the exception to the rule.

also, you're absolutely right about the machine getting out the vote in the GEs.  I've worked campaigns out there, and no doubt republicans always think they're going to do better than they do b/c they underestimate the democratic GOTV powerhouse that is NJ


by bluedavid on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:48:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Wilder Effect (2.00 / 1)

I can't believe the media is already rolling this bullshit out regarding a possible upset in VA.

Oh wait. Yes I can.


by Scan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:50:26 PM EST

Re: The Wilder Effect (none / 0)

It is obvious now that there will be an upset.  Look for Clinton up by at least 10 in Virginia.  It will be the end of Obama.  Anything less than that from Clinton, and she has been badly beaten.

Man, I always hated this expectations game thing, but it is kinda fun when you set the bar so low.


by Tantris on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bradley Effect is Absurd (2.00 / 1)

You cannot compare Doug Wilder's GENERAL election bid with a Democratic PRIMARY almost 2 decades later.  Chuck Todd is one of the best mainstream political analysts out there, but he is wrong about this.

The notion that a significant chunk of a generally liberal Democratic base in Virginia (the state has obviously change a lot over the years with the influx of residents to NOVA) being polled would openly lie to a pollster about their preference based on race doesn't make sense to me.

Maybe I'll be wrong and the margin will be close. But I doubt it's in the single digits.


by Hadi on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:57:53 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Wasn't Wilder in the general, not the primary?


by Progressive America on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:02:16 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (2.00 / 1)

The Wilder effect, the 1989 governor's race, [Douglas Wilder] was up by double digits leading up to election day and he hung on by one percentage point I believe it is and he became the first African-American governor of Virginia...

Good God, the mythology of the "Wilder effect" will never die.  Wilder was not ahead by double digits in the polls, the polls were actually very close.

It was the EXIT POLL which incorrectly showed Wilder way ahead, which led to supposition that maybe people didn't want to tell a pollster face-to-face that they hadn't voted for the black candidate.  But the opinion polling leading up to the election was quite accurate.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:04:03 PM EST

Some Potentially GOOD NEWS for Hillary in VA (none / 0)

In VA (on notLarrySobato) there is THIS report:

"UPDATE #2-  Virginia Run, one of the most Republican precincts in Fairfax County has had 230 Democrats and 130 Republicans so far.  WTF?  Poll workers there just called me and said some Republicans have admitted being told to take the Democratic ballot and vote for the weaker candidate."

Hillary seems to be getting GOP votes in this precinct, if that trend continues, she will do better in overall numbers.  i don't imagine any HRC fans will complain, but it is a crappy way to get votes, I suppose.


by a gunslinger on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:09:31 PM EST

Re: Some Potentially GOOD NEWS for Hillary in VA (none / 0)

If they want to vote for "the weaker candidate," they should stay on the red side of the aisle.


by milton333 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Potentially GOOD NEWS for Hillary in VA (none / 0)

True, but according to the account, Hillary is the clear beneficiary in an open primary (any open primary).


by a gunslinger on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:19:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I live in Va.Beach, very middle class neighborhood between 2 navy bases. My husband and I went to vote around 11 a.m. We saw about 10 people, mostly older women. My son voted at the same location at 8 a.m. I asked him if it was crowded, he said no he was in and out in about 2 minutes. I asked him to describe the other voters he saw, he said he was the only guy there, and the women were my age (mid 40s) or older.


by cdo on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:10:34 PM EST

Voted in Baltimore City (none / 0)

Much smaller line than in 2004.  Much smaller turnout than in the 2006 midterm, too.

Pretty clearly a Democratic stronghold, but I was very, very surprised at the small size of the turnout.


by bartimaeus blue on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:14:15 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

If Obama wins by more than 5, it is still a GREAT win.  Its another state that Hillary should have won just a few weeks ago.

The drumbeat...


by a gunslinger on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:25:09 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

I'm in Maryland (Montgomery County).  I was at a few polling places today (PTA bake sale, etc), and polling looked the same as always -- no lines anywhere.


by demmonty on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:31:35 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

what time do polls close? sorry have a busy day at school :(


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:43:48 PM EST

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

7 in DC/VA, 8 in MD


by Crablaw on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potomac Primary Turnout (none / 0)

Texas?
any trend here?
http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php
"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:58:50 PM EST


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