Yet more bad news for House Republicans:
Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) announced Monday that he would not seek reelectionShadegg, 58, was first elected to represent Arizona's 3rd congressional district in the Republican wave of 1994. Known for his staunch opposition to earmarks, Shadegg ran for House majority leader in 2006 after Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) resigned from Congress. He lost that race to Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio).
"The bottom line is that this is a personal decision between my family and me, about our dreams, goals, and ambitions, and we have concluded that it is time for me to seek a new challenge in a different venue to advance the cause of freedom," Shadegg said in a statement.
He added that his health is great and that he had raised more than $1 million for his planned 2008 re-election race last year. His expected Democratic opponent, Bob Lord, had raised more than $612,000.
This is, count it, the 29th open seat that the Republicans must defend this cycle, a remarkable total that represents more than one in every seven seats -- over 14 percent -- that the party won in November 2006. And with each additional retirement or resignation, it becomes that much more difficult for the Republicans to limit their losses in the House to single digits (let alone pick up seats or retake the majority). This is particularly the case with seats like that of Shadegg, which could potentially end up in play.
Arizona's third congressional district leans about 6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in Presidential elections, a number that no doubt makes this a more difficult seat for the Democrats to win. This number might even be larger this fall given that an Arizona, John McCain, will likely top the GOP ticket (though McCain couldn't even crack 50 percent in the Arizona Republican primary earlier this month, so who knows...).
But the Democrats already hold 40 percent of the districts with a 6-point Republican lean across the country. And with now 16 districts left open by Republicans with leans of 6 or less points towards the GOP, there are a whole lot of potentially competitive races in stock.
What's more, the Democrats have in Bob Lords a candidate who has been able to raise some serious cash. I don't know too much about him or his candidacy, but even running against a fairly entrenched incumbent in a redder district Lord has been able to raise more than $600,000. This includes a fundraiser held for Lord in Washington, DC by Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen.
This is not to say that winning will come easy for Lord or the Democrats in this district. But every time the Democrats make the Republicans go on the defense, Democrats' chances of extending their majority increase.
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