Just now, on Scarborough's show, Chris Matthews, Mika and Pat Buchanan just chatting about the course of this campaign, but then both Matthews and Buchanan dropped a bombshell in my view:

Both agreed that if the nominee is Clinton, she will win a "narrow" victory over McCain. But if the nominee is Obama, there is no guarantee Obama can beat McCain, because Obama's too much of an unknown, and would be a very volatile candidate in the general election.

Just sayin'

SusanUnPC at No Quarter this morning just nails it once again. God, she's an awesome blogger. Don't have the link handy, but you know where they are. Go Read It.

that lead is thinner than turnip soup.

So Tuesday there are 168 delegates up. Plus what, 30 or so superdelegates? Say Obama gets 98, Hillary 70. Even if Obama gets only a minority of the supers he's still ahead.

As Bowers points out, its fairly inappropriate to count Mich, Florida AND SDs at this stage int he game.  SDs float and FLorida and Mich haven't been officially accepted.  Unless a deal is cut, none should be listed until the convention credentials committee accepts them.

Some people try to distort everything to favor their favorite candidate.  i.e., look at the latest breaking blue.

"Obama refuses to debate in Wisconson"

Why should he give free airtime to a campaign that is broke??  He has more important things to do than help Hillary Clinton get on the air, like racking up 30 point victories.

real clear politics has Obama with a delegate lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_delegate_count .html

They claim their source as (in their words): Delegate Counts Come From AP, Wash Post, CBS News & RCP

The only hope now is that Clinton's base, women, Roman Catholics, Latinos, lunch-bucket Democrats, rally to give her a strong showing in Texas, Ohio, and Penn.  Then she can make the argument based on her popular vote majority to the superdelegates.

Somehow I missed the story where the DNC announced they were going to seat the Mich and Fl delegates...

Until that point, including them in any tally seems presumptuous and biased.  Precisely the reason why I have come here to read less and less.

Nice win for Hillary in Maine last night!

Folks...

The Superdelegate story is a tasty media-cooked stew that lacks real sustenance!  The superdelegates ALWAYS blow with the wind and follow the national leader.  Watch for two things to begin if the HRC machine caqn't win at least ONE of the Chesepeake primaries:

1) Superdelegates who have declared/stated a "preference", will start to publically waver, or peel away from HRC.

2) The drumbeat for her to drop out will begin, for the sake of unifying the party NOW before the Superdelegate "issue" (weak as it is) gets more play, or democratic grass roots get more vitriolic.

BOTH these phenomena will increase should she also not win WI or HI.  Mark my words.  The pressure for her to drop out will begin Wednesday at midnight should she lose all three.

How will her campaign react to this?  

will get the nomination, guaranteed. the democrat party would not be so stupid to have it any other way.

also fl and mi will not count unless they vote again. this too is a guarantee as the democrat party is not stupid.

I don't care who gets the most superdelegates, I think the idea that they may decide the nomination is ridiculous. If Clinton is ahead in pledged delegates, but Obama comes from behind and wins with the super delegates, then I will just fold up and stay home. Same goes if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and Clinton comes from behind to win with super delegates.

Superdelegates should vote for who has the most pledged delegates. The only reason I could see for them casting their vote otherwise is if there was proof of voting fraud in some primaries and they are trying to correct the vote or something.

Expect Edwards to endorse Obama - Maybe tonight. He's meeting with Edwards today. After tomorrow - Obama's pledged delegate lead will not be something Hillary can overcome -except with a blow-out in Ohio and Texas - not likely. The wind is shifting. Democrats want to wrap this up quickly. Except for older white women, Hillary's support is not passionate enough (a la evangelical conservatives for Huckalbee) to keep voting for her to make some sort of point. Democrats like her, but they're not willing to see a bloodbath over her. She's been beaten. The Party after tomorrow will start to move on.

Why would anyone count Florida and Michigan????  I can see the case for reinstating Florida's delegation, or part of it, because at least all of the candidates were on the ballot there.  There's no possible case for Michigan's vote to count, since Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot there.

The media shouldn't be reporting the super delegate "count" at all.  It has been skewing the news, and making casual voters believe that Senator Clinton was still in the "lead", despite having won fewer delegates in states that have actually voted.  It's deceptive, especially given that super delegates are not pledged and could easily change their support between now and the convention.