I stand corrected again! Hillary will win pledged delegates and nomination

by yellowdem1129, Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:12:08 PM EST

My temporary depression is over.  I have habituated to the political realities

and

I stand corrected on my prediction of Obama to win the nomination.  I went through the rest of the Primary schedule:

The winner of the Pledged delegates will win the Superdelegate support and

Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination!

According to CNN
Clinton has 924 pledged delegates:

as you can see below I anticipate her getting 799 more from future primary dates for a total of 1723

Obama has 986 pledged delegates:

as you can see below I anticipate him getting 734 more from future primary dates for a total of 1720

The Super-delegates will overwhelmingly go for Clinton and force Obama as vice presidential nominee.

Projected Delegate allocation:

Feb. 12

D.C. 37 Clinton 8 Obama 29

MD 99 Clinton 40 Obama 59

VA 101 Clinton 41 Obama 60

Feb. 19

Ha. 29 Clinton 8 Obama 21

Wis. 92 Clinton 39 Obama 53

March 4

Ohio 161 Clinton 91 Obama 60

Texas 228 Clinton 138 Obama 90

R.I. 32 Clinton 19 Obama 13

Ver. 23 Clinton 9 Obama 14

March 8

Wyo. 18 Clinton 6 Obama 12

March 11

Miss. 40 Clinton 18 Obama 22

April 8

Penn. 188 Clinton 106 Obama 76

May 3

Guam 9 Clinton 2 Obama 7

May 6

Indiana 84 Clinton 51 Obama 33

N.C. 134 Clinton 75 Obama 59

May 13

W.V. 39 Clinton 24 Obama 15

May 20

Ken. 60 Clinton 35 Obama 25

Ore 65 Clinton 35 Obama 30

June 3

Mon. 24 Clinton 8 Obama 16

SD 23 Clinton 8 Obama 15

June 7

Puerto Rico 63 Clinton 38 Obama 25

The good news is that she doesn't have to "go negative". Once Senator Obama becomes the frontrunner from tomorrow and Saturday's results, this will allow Hillary to make a "stand" on March 4th.  Just as the voters on Super Tuesday broke towards Hillary, much of the same will happen in every contested race for the remainder of the Primary.  Senator Obama will win many delegates because many places will be uncontested.

However, Hillary will win everywhere she tries:
Ohio, Texas,Penn., Indiana, N.C., West Virgina, Kentucky, Oregon, and Puerto Rico




Tags: hillary clinton, barack obama, primary election (all tags)

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Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re: I stand corrected again! (none / 0)

riiiight


by jmeugniot on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:14:23 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! (none / 0)

Clinton garners a near split in Mississippi, huh?


by PantherDem on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:15:59 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! (none / 0)

Wow, it gets better.

A solid victory in North Carolina, a state which is demographically closest to Virginia.

A huge victory in Ohio, which has a significant black population and an open primary.

Another huge victory in Texas, where the contest rules almost guarantee a near-split or a narrow victory.


by PantherDem on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:17:50 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! Hillary will win pled (none / 0)

Um....

yellowdem1129....

I appreciate that you got your NH prediction right, but otherwise, you've been all over the map.

Maybe you can't predict the future?

I know I can't.

Just a thought.


Nobody's right if everybody's wrong --Stephen Stills "For What It's Worth"
by vj on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:18:12 PM EST

Re (none / 0)

Really?

You were much more clairvoyant in your depression


by chicagogene on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:20:50 PM EST

re (none / 0)

Puerto Rico is actually winner take all from what I understand


by rossinatl on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:21:47 PM EST

Re: re (none / 0)

It is, and I think Clinton will get it.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: re (2.00 / 1)

Winner-take-all is prohibited by DNC bylaws.

36 delegates are chosen via caucus rsults in each of the senate districts. The other 19 are allocated according to the islandwide caucus results.


by PantherDem on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: re (none / 0)

no - you dont understand Puerto Rico.

each little county is winner take all -

making the island technically "proportional" but in reality, its more winner take all


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I stand corrected again! Hillary will win pled (none / 0)

You "prediction" is way too optimistic.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:26:01 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! (none / 0)

Thanks for breaking down this anticipated Rudy Redux.  I guess no one's caught on to the consequences of putting all (or most of) your eggs in one basket?


by PD1769 on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:31:00 PM EST

They are still counting the delegates (none / 0)

Many delegates in states such as Colorado, Washington, etc. have not yet been allocated. Obama's lead increases quite a bit from them, as they tend to be from states he won.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:31:04 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! (none / 0)

Hahaha

Funniest predictions since Jerome picked Obama to go 3 for 5 this weekend.


by beanbagz on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:41:51 PM EST

You messed up (none / 0)

I think your total pledged delegates numbers for each state are wrong.

Also, don't forget Democrats Abroad that has 7 pledged delegates up for grabs.


by Progressive America on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:54:26 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! Hillary will win pled (none / 0)

These are some pretty bad predictions i must say.


What would LBJ do?
by Socks The Cat on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 07:12:12 PM EST

Re: I stand corrected again! Hillary will win pled (none / 0)

PR isnt proportional representation.

I'd have her 80-20 in Puerto Rico


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:54:57 PM EST


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