UPDATED X4: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama leading

by bdog, Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 04:57:07 PM EST

AP/IPSOS has released new national poll numbers today.

AP reports it as:

"The poll shows Obama leading Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination, 46 percent to 41 percent."

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iP6ao euUCqIEo5DHDOCMLHyUOCpgD8UO8R400

ONLY ONE TINY PROBLEM.  THAT'S NOT THE ACTUAL POLL RESULTS.

IPSOS provides the numbers and it shows:

CLINTON leading OBAMA 46%-41%.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_ dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr080211-3topline.pdf&a mp;id=3813

This FALSE AP story is being picked up and run in local papers and trumpeted on the blogs.  Mark Halperin at thepage.time.com heralds the numbers on his page.  It seems in this case numbers can lie when you want them to.

Ahhh, the status of journalism today.

NOTE: HALPERIN HAS NOW CORRECTED THE NUMBERS.

UPDATED: Ben Smith at the Politico is confirming our initial report. http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Margin_for_error.html

UPDATED X 2: A google news search reveals hundreds of media outlets running the WRONG numbers from AP. A few are now correcting. Hard to have a fair fight when the media won't even correctly report poll numbers.

UPDATED X 3: SUCCESS! AP has finally corrected the story. Despite that hundreds of media outlets, local and international, are still running the false numbers.

An example: The Guardian is running, "A poll for the Associated Press yesterday indicated the turn in fortunes, with Obama on 46% against Clinton's 41%."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/12/barackobama.hillaryclinton


There are many other examples. I continue to email news outlets pointing out the error.

UPDATED X4: Thanks to everyone who sent this diary to media outlets everywhere. A review of local papers and media, show that most are now running the proper numbers. Unfortunately, many voters will receive the wrong poll numbers from the Auburn Citizen to the Jackson Hole Star-Tribune to the Boston Globe to KITV Hawaii and the Times West Virginia and beyond.

A FEW THOUGHTS:
The campaign for the Democratic nomination is at a crucial point. Barack Obama's campaign is hoping their momentum will carry them to wins in Ohio and Texas, thus cinching the nomination. It's irresponsible for media outlets to run "Obama leads national polls" stories when they are misreporting the numbers of the poll that they are using to justify the story. The wrong numbers from AP are being reported in hundreds of newspapers, radio stations and tv reports across the country. At a crucial point in the nomination process, that story performs a disservice to voters.




Tags: Polls, AP, Obama, Clinton, Hillary, Barack, Ipsos, Election, Democrat (all tags)

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Permalink :: 35 Comments :: Post a Comment


Seems an honest mistake to me. (none / 0)

Honestly, I don't think anyone would vote based on who's leading in the national polls in a two-candidate race. If anything, this is beneficial to Clinton, as it sets the narrative that she's the underdog.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:04:47 PM EST

Re: Seems an honest mistake to me. (none / 0)

Actually, during the Washington caucus I attended on Saturday the 9th, a Obama supporter in my precinct cited just such a poll as a central reason to vote for Obama.

Specifically, he referred to a Time magazine poll which apparently showed Obama with a lead over McCain--in early February.


by jradd on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:05:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seems an honest mistake to me. (none / 0)

That's an entirely different question.

That Time magazine poll does exist, by the way; I think more information on it is in this link.

The mistake here is that it shows Obama with a lead over Clinton when the opposite is true. The actual poll does show Obama with a larger lead over McCain than Clinton.

What I meant is that no voter would say something like, "Obama is ahead of Clinton, so I better vote for him." As that is what happened in this case. In the incident you cited, the voter basically said, "Obama is winning over McCain by a larger margin than Clinton, so I'll vote for Obama so we can win in November."


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:17:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seems an honest mistake to me. (none / 0)

Oh really? At my caucus I saw a number of people indicate that they would go with Obama because he seemed to have such an advantage.  That's not to say all Obama supporters are that sheep-like, but the media's repetition of ideas is very very powerful.


by newhorizon on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:56:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I find that very difficult to believe (none / 0)

Especially since I don't think Obama has been ahead in any national poll before Washington.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 08:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not hard to believe at all (none / 0)

if you had been at my caucus and heard all the people talking about the Obama-McCain polling and the negatives polling.  Huge inevitability vibe there.


by newhorizon on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Again, (none / 0)

Obama-McCain polling is a different question. Its perfectly legitimate to make a decision based on who you think is more electable. And all the national polls seem to currently suggest that that would be Obama.

What I am saying and you do not seem to understand is that this report only confuses whether Obama is ahead of Clinton or vice versa, and there would be very few people who would support one of the two merely because he/she is ahead.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Again, (none / 0)

And I was referring generically to the very potent power of polls in general and the power of the perception of momentum.  


by newhorizon on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:26:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Seems an honest mistake to me. (none / 0)

Do you think momentum is helpful to Obama?  Because a poll showing him with a lead surely helps his momentum.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 07:30:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

Thank god. Not the time to give up the underdog status yet. However, this helps HRC not BHO.


by illlaw1 on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:05:32 PM EST

Seems like a mistake. (none / 0)

I seriously doubt any AP reporter would intentionally get something like this wrong in order to help Obama, partularly since it doesn't help Obama--it helps Clinton.

But the good news is it's down to 5 points! By March he'll be in the lead!


by Mystylplx on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:08:13 PM EST

Is there an alternative link? (none / 0)

My computer has some trust issues with Adobe...I think it had a bad experience while it was in the factory.


by ejintx on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:08:55 PM EST

HOLY CRAP (2.00 / 1)

...really?


by Scan on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:13:53 PM EST

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (2.00 / 1)

I personally wonder all the time about how far the media's love affair with Obama will extend.  I picture flowers, sweets, Valentine's day cards and maybe a little late-night you-know-what.  But to concoct poll results?  Now that's beyond the pale.  It's below the fray.


by the mollusk on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:19:40 PM EST

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

Mollusk, I always look forward to your posts for quotes like that...

I don't honestly believe that AP would make this mistake purposely.  They may love Obama, but they also love being a credibly source of information - and if CNN or any rival caught wind of this and could prove it was deliberate...well, AP's name would down there with Zogby's.


by ejintx on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:24:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

Thanks.  I try to interject humor when possible.


by the mollusk on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:26:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

Whether an honest mistake or not, Obama has been riding a wave of momentum that never really existed but was entirely manufactured by the media. Don't kid yourselves or us about this being in Hillary's interest. Before Super Tuesday the word was Obama was going to take CA, and the media fed off the "rumor" and the bad polls and the whole rest creating momentum for Obama that wasn't there. This is the same tactic.

At some point people are going to have to wake up to the fact that democrats are in a world of hurt if we nominate someone who can't win in CA, NY, NJ, MA and FL. And, all of Obama's rhetoric about how all those people will vote for him if he's nominated just point out that he's not listening. The general election isn't a caucus...it's a ballot election all the way.


by seattlegonz on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:09:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

Do you honestly believe MA would go Republican rather than vote for Obama?


by the mollusk on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:14:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly. (none / 0)

Using your logic, Clinton can't possibly win in the general election as she would lose African-American and educated voters to McCain...


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exactly. (none / 0)

Not if Obama is on the ticket. I don't think there's any way out of a Clinton/Obama ticket...you may not notice, but serious harm is being done to the Democratic party.

You can talk all you want about Obama winning, and don't count MI and FL and don't count super-delegates and when it comes down to it -- Obama won't have the delegates necessary to win. Every time democrats have had a divided convention they've lost the general election.

The disgusting way many Obama supporters talk about Hillary, makes me sick to my stomach. Yeah, I think it will be tough for some democrats to vote for Obama should he broker the nomination.


by seattlegonz on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 07:36:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have nothing but respect for Clinton (none / 0)

I simply prefer Obama over her. And honestly, I've seen far more Obama hate here than Clinton hate at Dailykos.

I won't even start with your other arguments... but you seem to imply that Clinton would lose African-American voters and educated voters if she's nominated and doesn't select Obama as her VP. Do you really believe that?


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 07:41:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have nothing but respect for Clinton (none / 0)

If Obama were way ahead and this wasn't a divided democratic electorate for sure democrats would support him. But, the fact is that when you have a brokered convention many are disenfranchised by the process. Not to mention democrats are already in a world of hurt -- we look ridiculous. We've disenfranchised two must win states, WA is holding caucuses and a primary (I bet the results are radically different), super delegates are going to play a deciding role, and the list goes on. But, the biggest problem is that we are divided among class, race, gender and age. I mean seriously divided. Those aren't easy groups to bring together if it's an ugly 50/50 split. The longer this goes on this way the more we're working against each other, and the more distasteful and unhelpful rhetoric gets spewed.

If the convention is brokered and Hillary is the winner how will you feel?


by seattlegonz on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 07:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

To the diarist: I sent this link to Ben Smith at Politico and he wrote me back....he's on this. Nice scoop if it turns out to be true!


by Scan on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:32:18 PM EST

GALLUP POLL IS ALSO WRONG (2.00 / 1)

If you go to Gallup's website, the numbers show Hillary up as well.  I don't know what the impetus is, but it's the same story as it's been the whole race, the media's the big loser.


by unabashed dem on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:33:34 PM EST

Re: GALLUP POLL IS ALSO WRONG (none / 0)

that might be the tracking poll. its different from the USA Today poll....i think. could be wrong.


by Scan on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:37:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim (2.00 / 1)

Almost want to go to DKOS and watch the wind go out of their sails a bit...NAH, never mind.


by Sensible on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:36:56 PM EST

Re: AP reporting poll wrong, falsely claim Obama l (none / 0)

i believe the media is very biased against Hillary. that said, i believe also that sometimes mistakes are made...no need to see a conspiracy here.


by CalDem on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:40:12 PM EST

CONGRATS! (none / 0)

You're famous.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 208/Margin_for_error.html

I tipped him off. You're welcome.


by Scan on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:41:03 PM EST

Re: CONGRATS! (none / 0)

Wow.  Thanks.  And I've only been at this for a few days.

;)


by bdog on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:42:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CONGRATS! (none / 0)

also wrote to Mark Halperin at thepage.time.com. Numbers are corrected there as well. don't know if he knew before I told him though.


by Scan on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:22:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: CONGRATS! (none / 0)

Thanks.  I don't have emails to send to many people, so I appreciate you alerting them.

I did a google news search and it reveals HUNDREDS of media sources and local newspapers around the world are reporting the FALSE AP numbers.  Very few are correcting them.

Pretty hard to have a fair fight when the media won't even report poll numbers correctly.


by bdog on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:36:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Probably Mistake, but it proves 1 thing (none / 0)

the media fail to do their job considerably from the beginning.  And probably will continue this way until the end.


by JoeySky18 on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:28:18 PM EST

Missouri (none / 0)

I recall seeing it reported on yahoo all night that Hillary had won Missouri, not Obama. Give it a break.


by Progressive America on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:45:45 PM EST

Re: Missouri (none / 0)

It won't make any difference after the primaries this Tuesday when Obama blows out Clinton in VA, MD and DC.

HE WILL THEN BE LEADING IN THE NATIONAL POLL'S

Currently the RCP AVG" 1.6 over Obama BY CLINTON

This will change by Friday.


by BDM on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: UPDATED X3: AP reporting poll wrong, (none / 0)

The campaign for the Democratic nomination is at a crucial point. Barack Obama's campaign is hoping their momentum will carry them to wins in Ohio and Texas, thus cinching the nomination. It's irresponsible for media outlets to run "Obama leads national polls" stories when they are misreporting the numbers of the poll that they are using to justify the story. The wrong numbers from AP are being reported in hundreds of newspapers, radio stations and tv reports across the country. At a crucial point in the nomination process, that story performs a disservice to voters.


by bdog on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 11:58:01 PM EST


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