Numbers Don't Lie

Numbers Don't Lie
by Me (L.J.)

To be debunked:

--ME, NE, LA and WA had representative of electorate voter turn out.
-- Obama's wins are more significant than Hillary's losses.
-- Obama has more total votes than Hillary.

Maine:
(h t t p : / / www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=3&a mp;docID=news-000002668825)
(h t t p : / / www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art icle?AID=20080123/NEWS/801230333-1/NEW S01)

About 1 million registered voters

45,000 total voters came out in ME Caucus

59.5% = 26,550 for Obama

40.5% = 18,450 for Clinton

Nebraska:
(h t t p : / / www.journalstar.com/articles/2007/12/30/ news/politics/doc4776dd0caea8b171580917. txt)

375,000 registered Democrats

36,000 total voters came out in Nebraska caucus

57% = 25,986 for Obama

32% = 12,396 for Clinton

Louisiana:
(h t t p : / / www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives /015165.php)

2.8 million registered voters, about half are Democrats
(1.4 million Democrats registered in Louisiana)

358,000 voted on Saturday, meaning about
ONE MILLION DEMOCRATS IN LA DID NOT VOTE

57% = 220,588 for Obama

36% = 136,959 for Clinton

Washington:
(h t t p : / / blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/02/our-view -on-pre.html)

About 4.3 million voters
50,000 voters came out in Washington caucus, 1.3% of registered voters

68% = 34,000 votes for Obama
32% = 16,000 votes for Clinton

So, here's the math everyone:

Saturday and Sunday Obama racked up:

307, 124 votes

Clinton racked up:

183, 805 votes

making the difference about 123, 319 votes.

That's the big media fuss: 123,000 people.

NOW, let's put this all in to Perspective. My favorite word.

In FLORIDA, Clinton racked up:

857,208 votes compared to Obama's 569, 041.

Difference of 288, 167.

So, Clinton got more votes in the state of Florida alone than Obama managed to get with 4 states this weekend. The difference between the the twos vote count of Florida and of the states that voted this weekend was also greater for Hillary.

Obama's Florida votes plus ME, LA, Nebraska, and WA =

876, 165

Clinton's Florida votes plus all of the above is =

1,041,013
----------

Therefore:

Simple Math would tell you that if you added all the states together, Hillary would still trounce Obama.

All the votes Obama racked up this weekend are less than half the votes that Hillary alone got in Florida.

The voting blocks that turned up are not representative of the states registered voters by any stretch of the means, proved by numbers of registered voters and voter turnout.

The difference between Saturday and Sunday's votes for Hillary and Obama is 123,000 whereas the Florida difference alone is 288,000.

Final point: According to Savage Politics . Com:

Hillary Clinton has received 8,938,660 votes throughout the United States (up to February 9th) while Barack Obama has received 8,406,728.

We will add the weekend totals.

Hillary's total votes thus far: 9,122,465 votes
Obama's total votes thus far: 8,713,852 votes

Difference of: 408, 613.

That's a lot of people, don't you think?

That's a little less than the number of people who showed up to vote this weekend.

So, in conclusion:

Don't believe the Media hype. Hillary is still strongly in this game and the numbers don't lie. They actually favor Hillary by a considerable margin and Obama's big wins are again nothing but smoke and mirrors.



Display:


Re: Numbers Don't Lie (none / 0)

This is a repost of the comment I posted in reply to your original comment with this info (in the open thread):

Where are you getting your numbers? The only estimate I've seen for Washington turnout indicated approximately 200,000 voters. That's well above your number. Please provide sources so we know whether to take your analysis seriously.

Furthermore, your numbers are very different from those reached by Chris Bowers and Tim Sackton at openleft.


by DPW on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:00:05 PM EST

Re: Numbers Don't Lie (none / 0)

To be more clear, I've tried some of the urls you include, but I don't get a page to load.


by DPW on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your numbers for Washington are wrong (none / 0)

My guess is that you just took the totals from CNN or somewhere. But those are state delegate amounts, not actual voters - hence why they're labeled "State Del."

For example, in Nevada, there were a total of ~11,000 state delegates, while actual Democratic turnout was estimated at ~117,000

Democratic turnout in Washington is estimated in excess of 200,000

I'm not as familiar with the other state examples, so I'll leave them as they are for now, but I would definitely advise you to verify them somewhere.


John McCain
by MILiberal on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Numbers Don't Lie (none / 0)

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?pa rm1=3&docID=news-000002668825
http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs. dll/article?AID=/20080123/NEWS/801230333 /-1/NEWS01
http://www.journalstar.com/articles/2007 /12/30/news/politics/doc4776dd0caea8b171 580917.txt
http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/02/o ur-view-on-pre.html

Are all the links I provided in the diary which include all the numbers I'm using, minus the ones from CNN.

And thank you MILiberal for that observation, however I took that in to account based on the number of registered dems and the turn out:

About 4.3 million voters
50,000 voters came out in Washington caucus, 1.3% of registered voters

68% = 34,000 votes for Obama
32% = 16,000 votes for Clinton

Whereas the DEL COUNT for Washington is:
O 25,986
C 12,396

Due to the article link that says:
"Turnout is much lower at caucuses than at primaries. The caucuses in Washington state on Saturday drew fewer than 50,000 people. That's about 1.3% of the state's registered voters."

My numbers could be off, but no official vote count for Washington has been released whereas your article says Wash turnout "may" top 200,000.


by jackfkntwist on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 05:40:38 PM EST

Re: Numbers Don't Lie (none / 0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/us/pol itics/10cnd-primary.html?ref=us

"In Washington, the Democratic party reported record-breaking numbers of caucusgoers, with early totals suggesting turnout would be nearly be nearly double what it was in 2004 -- itself a record year -- when 100,000 Democrats caucused."


by Loreg on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:31:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Figures don't lie, but liars figure (none / 0)

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.


by Loreg on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 06:28:42 PM EST


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