Superdelegates, Caucuses, MI/FL: What it all boils down to

Originally titled Analysis: Honoring Key Values in the Nominating Contest but that wasn't very sexy.

This diary isn't intended as a research document or finished product, just a springboard for ideas and vehicle to reconcile dueling thoughts.

After several spirited threads, a few ideas have crystallized for me. The overriding theme seems to be that any Democratic nominating process should, in my opinion, value a few complementary and competing key principles:

  • partisanship: Democrats get to select the Democratic nominee; all Democrats get to participate; strongest Democratic areas get more votes.
  • diversity and respect for key constituencies: Each constituency gets represented at the convention.
  • proportional representation and participatory democracy: All geographic areas are represented proportionally, all candidates receive delegates proportionally, maximum participation is encouraged, majority rules, minority gets representation.
  • fairness and transparency: The rules are set in advance, the rules count equally for everyone, entire process conducted in the open.
  • Now, in more depth, here's how I see each respective value currently represented in this cycle's process:

      Value Where reflected in 2008 process? Where contradicted in 2008 process?
      Partisanship Many states' primaries are closed, meaning only Democrats can vote. Some states allow independent or non-declared voters to participate. Most states do not allow Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary. The current delegate allocation formula is based on past party performance. Party leaders have a say in the process. Superdelegates may not endorse candidates of another party. Many jurisdictions allow independents and non-affiliated voters to vote in the Democratic primary. Some allow Republicans and third-party members to cast votes.
      Diversity and Respect for Key Constituencies The following constituencies are recognized and represented at the convention with affirmative action, quota, and/or "inclusion rules": African-American, Latino/Hispanic, Asian/Pacific Islander, Native American, LGBT, Disabled, Youth, Senior, Labor. Party leaders and elected officials are represented by unpledged "superdelegates." Women are represented equally with men in many areas. Some constituencies receive affirmative action and quota treatment, others do not. An effort to get LGBT affirmative action in delegate selection for 2008 was not approved by the DNC. Some constituencies continue to be underrepresented at-large or on specific committees.
      Proportional Representation and Participatory Democracy Every state and territory is represented at the convention. Larger areas have more votes. Delegates are awarded to candidates proportionally (not winner takes all). In each district and in some states, the winner of the popular vote will be the winner of the most delegates. The remaining candidate(s) will get a share of the delegates. Some areas allow early voting, same day registration, and absentee balloting. In some jurisdictions the winner of the popular vote is not the winner of the most pledged delegates. The current delegate allocation formula prevents popular vote winners from taking a clear majority of delegates in many districts. Caucuses disenfranchise voters who are unable to attend or who do not wish to cast votes in public. Voter ID laws create challenges for key constituencies. No same-day registration/party declaration or early voting reduces participation. Unpledged delegates (PLEOs, "superdelegates") exist outside the primary system. MI and FL Democrats were disenfranchised because of the rules.
      Fairness and Transparency The rules were set in advance. Broken rules resulted in infractions for Michigan and Florida. Superdelegates' identities were made public. Unpledged delegates' names appear on the ballot in some jurisdictions. The calendar process was a disaster this cycle. States such as Iowa and New Hampshire received undue favoritism. Delegate and committee selection has not been widely understood in some communities, and not all party activists had the opportunity to participate. Many delegates' names have not been on ballots. Final delegate selection is done by campaigns in private.

    Clearly there are some areas for improvement within the current process. Each of these values is currently reflected to different extents within the process, and each is contradicted to different extents.

    To me, it appears that the Diversity and Respect for Key Constituencies value is currently very strong. This took several years of advocacy from party activists to accomplish, although the work is not yet done.

    The remaining three values appear to be either significantly less reflected or more contradicted in the current process. Partisanship is most contradicted by open primaries. Proportional Representation/Participatory Democracy is most weakened by the same factors that weaken democracy in general elections (voter ID, registration and absentee ballot barriers) in addition to the added factors of caucuses and superdelegates. Fairness and Transparency are most threatened by the messy calendar process and individual delegate selection.

    Partisanship and Participatory Democracy seem to be the two values in most direct competition, because closed primaries winnow participants and open primaries maximize participation. However, if one seeks to maximize participation only among Democrats, then the values are not in conflict.

    Pressing Issues and Potential Solutions

    There are two key issues that support some values while contradicting others, seemingly creating competition among the values:

  • The concept of superdelegates positively reflects the value of respect for key constituencies, namely the very important constituency of Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs), as well as the value of partisanship. However, the superdelegates, under the current rules, contradict the value of representation/democracy.
  • The MI/FL sanction supports the value of fairness/transparency but contradicts the value of representation/democracy.

  • Obviously, the values should not be weighed equally. This is where honest disagreement comes in. What's more important within the context of a party primary: a level playing field or universal enfranchisement? Partisanship or participation? Can a balance be struck in areas where there is competition?

    So, how can we make the current nominating contest better reflect the value of proportional representation/participatory democracy?

  • Lobby to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates. Award the "uncommitted" Michigan delegates to Barack Obama.
  • Lobby superdelegates to support the winner of their states' popular votes.
  • In any deal-making scenario, swing superdelegates to the winner of the national popular vote. This would take some wrangling.
  • Alternatively, how could we make the current nominating contest better reflect the value of partisanship?

  • Lobby superdelegates to vote their consciences, as this could offset the taint of open primaries on the nominating process.
  • How could we make the current nominating contest better reflect the value of fairness?

  • Lobby against seating the Michigan and Florida delegates.

  • I'll address long-term nominating system reform and the problems we can't fix for this contest in a second diary. What am I missing? Is this coherent?

    Cross-posted at Open Left

    Display:


    First blog diary (2.00 / 2)

    Feedback wanted.
    by Turnpike Kid on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 02:38:56 AM EST

    Re: Superdelegates, Caucuses, MI/FL: (none / 0)

    Great diary. But what do we about this mess now?


    by LakersFan on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 03:16:43 AM EST

    Thanks (none / 0)

    I left it open-ended in the diary because I think that how people rank the values will determine how they answer your question. Personally, I would lobby superdelegates to vote with whomever is ahead in the national popular vote (not necessarily the same as ahead in pledged delegates), and I would allocate the MI/FL delegates based on the results of those primaries, giving Barack the uncommitteds from MI. To me, that's a compromise between "democracy" and "partisanship." I personally put a high emphasis on party purity--I don't think Repubs and indys should get a say in who the Democratic nominee is.
    by Turnpike Kid on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:11:05 AM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Re: Thanks (none / 0)

    I agree with you completely. I think Republicans and indpendents have no place picking our nominee. In California, independents get to vote in the Dem primary, but not the GOP, and I do not like it one bit.


    by LakersFan on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 08:48:55 PM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Re: Superdelegates, Caucuses, MI/FL (none / 0)

    Impressive work - very thorough, organized, and fair.

    I posted a diary http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/10/2153 /47174 that touches on some of these issues from a slightly different approach. I think our two diaries are complimentary, as we each address an area the other has not.

    My diary says the nominating process is about producing a winning ticket. I should have said the nominating process is about producing a winning ticket consistent with our values as Democrats. You diary very thoroughly addresses the values part, without much attention to the winning part.

    I think if we take the goal of winning in the fall into account, some of the conflicting values you laid out can be resolved. For example, the candidates MUST come to an agreement to seat the FL and MI delegates under some formula. And they must do it soon, not wait for the convention.


    Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
    by itsthemedia on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:09:26 AM EST

    Thanks (none / 0)

    I liked your diary. I also think that in order to win in November, this needs to be settled well in advance of the convention. Regarding your concern about caucuses (which I share), I think the superdelegates can counteract whatever deficiencies exist there.
    by Turnpike Kid on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:15:28 AM EST
    [ Parent ]

    Re: Superdelegates, Caucuses, MI/FL: What it all b (none / 0)

    Question about superdelegates: are they subtracted from each state's original allocation, or are they added to each state's allocation? In other words, which of the following two things happened, taking California as an example:

    1) The DNC first decided that California gets 441 delegates (presumably based on how many Democratic voters there are in CA). They then figure out how many Democratic senators, reps, governors, and various other party leaders there are in CA, and count 71. So of California's 441 delegates, 370 are pledged and 71 are superdelegates.

    OR

    2) The DNC first decided that California gets 370 pledged delegates, again based on how many Dems there are. They then count up the elected officials and party leaders, find 71, and add these to the unpledged delegates to get 441.

    If it's the first case, you can make the argument that because the superdelegates were taken out of the state's allocation, they should vote for the state's winner (perhaps proportionally).

    If it's the second case, you can argue that because they're essentially free, then they should vote for the national winner, however that's defined (pledged delegates, popular vote winner, etc.). Of course, you might also say superdelegates are a way of rewarding a state for having more elected Dems.

    What a mess.


    by OrangeFur on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:42:03 AM EST

    How not to convince people (2.00 / 1)

    According to the NYT's article on superdelegates:

    "My strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the country, that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters," Mr. Obama said. "I think it is also important for superdelegates to think about who will be in the strongest position to defeat John McCain in November and who will be in the strongest position to ensure that we are broadening the base, bringing people who historically have not gotten involved in politics into the fold."

    This statement is unintentionally comical, I think. First Obama says, quite plausibly, that superdelegates should vote for whoever wins more pledged delegates. I assume he expects that to be him. So far so good. Second, he says they should vote for whoever can beat John McCain. I assume he means that's him too.

    So they should vote based on principle. And they should vote for who they think is the stronger candidate. What if those two aren't the same? Who should they vote for then? I think I know Obama's answer to that question.


    by OrangeFur on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:50:35 AM EST

    Re: How not to convince people (none / 0)

    I ask myself why he would be making a broad based pitch like this. The only answer is that he knows he is not keeping up in the superdelegate race, and he wants to delegitimize any vote that is not a vote for Obama. Or to put it in words that he applies to his opponent, he will do anything and say anything to win.


    Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
    by itsthemedia on Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 03:19:05 AM EST
    [ Parent ]


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