The run-up to Feb 5th

Here's the remaining days on the candidates schedule:

Clinton

February 2, in Los Angeles, CA, Tucson, AZ and Albuquerque, NM.

February 3, in Bridgeton, MO and Minneapolis, MN.

February 4, in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York.

February 5, in New York.

Obama

February 2, in Boise, ID, Minneapolis, MN and St Louis, MO.

February 3, in Wilmington, DE, and Chicago IL.

February 4, in Hartford, CT, New Jersey (per BlueJersey.net), and Boston, MA (rumored).

February 5, in Chicago, IL.

As you can see, Clinton's calendar is pretty full, and Obama has a few slots still open [less, with a few updates]. From the looks of it, they are both done in CA, which I find surprising. Instead, they will spend the last couple of days moving across the country into the eastern states, wherever Obama goes, Clinton is there the following day, like a check to his every move; both candidates possibly closing out in New York City, or will Obama head elsewhere?



Display:


Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

this will change as polls change. I expect, if the polls tighten, she will comeback to CA on feb 4th night to be here on 5th.


by bayareasg on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:29:20 PM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

She'll get more national coverage out of NY, I doubt she returns to CA.


by souvarine on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:32:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Clinton will wind up in her home state of NY Feb. 4 & 5, which is fitting;
Obama would do well to be at home (IL) on Feb. 5,  as well for the obligatory "candidate at the polls" photo.
by susie on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I updated it, that might be right, according to the WaPost tracker.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:56:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (2.00 / 1)

Thought you might be interested in this from Gallup if you haven't already seen it:


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 01:47:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Thanks for this information.

So gender will matter and so will race undoubtedly, two of the most trivial reasons upon which to base a vote for the best candidate. And unfortunately, both trend toward the least desirable direction for the country: backward to the past.


Click on Peace, Propaganda, & The Promised Land and learn the truth about the I/P conflict.
by shergald on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:32:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Actually it is looking less and less so.  For everybody's sake.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:38:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Who's catching who? (none / 0)

It seems to me the graph you posted and the chart at the linked article shows that while Hillary coninues to enjoy a near double lead among women over Obama, she also has closed the gap among men with him. The latest poll he has shows them both getting 40% of men. If Hillary leads among the gender with the larger number of voters, and is tied with Obama in the other gender, how can she not win overall?


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 10:54:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Who's catching who? (none / 0)

It shows Hillary's lead among women dropping to 9% across all demographics in national polling, lead among men to nil.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:30:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Perspective (none / 0)

I would say it shows Hillary's lead among women stabilizing at around 10%, and it shows that the lead OBAMA (not Hillary) had among men for the last few weeks has dropped to zero.

Again, if Hillary leads among women and is tied with Obama among men, how can Obama win? Does he do inordinately well with some 3rd gender that I'm unaware of?


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Perspective (none / 0)

should have been "days" not "weeks"


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Perspective (none / 0)

Hillary has enjoyed a significant lead with women nationally, this lead is apparently eroding rapidly.  Among men it has vanished.  Let's call it a trend.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:40:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry, no (none / 0)

Clinton maintains her lead among women. Obama has lost his lead among men. The only "trend" I see favors Hillary.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sorry, no (none / 0)

You better think about catching up with the rest of the Hillary supporter's progressions through the five stages of grief, sounds like you are still in denial.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:03:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LOL (none / 0)

Check the latest polls, I think you Obama-bots are somewhere between shock and anger right now! Go over to the Orange Satan. Here's what they're saying: Stupid polls, what do THEY know, I hate Hillary, the GOP will win if Hillary is nominated, I'll stay home if Hillary is nominated, I'll vote Republican if Hillary is nominated, how can anyone NOT love Obama, etc., etc.

Hillary is leading in every national poll. She is leading in all the ST states that matter. She won the debate, even Markos What'shisname admits it. Obama has crested. He never reached parity with her and now he is slipping back.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:10:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LOL (none / 0)

Yeah, right, we'll see.  And soon, too.  I don't think the Hillary campaign believes this contest ends on Tuesday.  But who knows?  This campaign has been full of surprises.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:20:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

If the polls tighten further in CA Hillary will run as far as possible from the Golden State.


by shlenny on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:54:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Where's the fast forward button? n/t (2.00 / 2)


While I could sit in church and pray all I want, I wouldn't be fulfilling God's will unless I went out and did the Lord's work ~ Barack Obama
by bowiegeek on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:32:17 PM EST

Re: Where's the fast forward button? n/t (2.00 / 1)

If we knew, we would have been holding it down for the last eight years.


Your attempt to change the subject to "the issues" is irrelevant.
by itsthemedia on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 12:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Hillary was at San Diego State today at the Cox Arena. SD Union report here. You can click through for video here.

This pm, she was at the San Jose Convention Center, and the San Francisco.

Chelsea was at SBCC and Cal Poly.

I don't know how much of an effect it will have, but all of the Clintons have been doing a lot of work at CA colleges.


by Pacific John on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:32:36 PM EST

Saw her in San Jose (none / 0)

4,000 people they expected 2,000.  Great speech, great crowd.  Wow.  


by Iskandar on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 02:45:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Saw her in San Jose (none / 0)

How do you know that they expected 2000?


by shlenny on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:30:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Clinton's schedule is fairly full, not very full. Obviously, they are both waiting to see where the need to be for the 10pm newscast on Monday night.

I think that Obama is smart to go Delaware and Idaho. These are small states (actually, Idaho is massive, but small population...) where a candidate appearance can go a long way. If I were Hillary, I would make a stop in Delaware as well as a tarmac event in Grad Forks, ND (on the Minnesota border).


by arkansasdemocrat on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:35:19 PM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Is 'pretty full' then 'fairly full' or 'very full'?


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:38:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Yeah I was wondering where he/she was going with that.

lol.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:42:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Fargo would be better


by Judeling on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:45:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blue Jersey says (none / 0)

Obama will also be in North Jersey on Feb 4.


New Jersey politics and news
by John DE on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:41:34 PM EST

Re: Blue Jersey says (none / 0)

Thanks, added.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I thought Reid scheduled the FISA vote for Monday - anticipating Hillary and Obama would be in DC.
Might as well wait until Wed - another 48 hours of Bush's corruption won't matter since he'll probably nix the vote anyway if it passes.
Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:42:20 PM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (2.00 / 1)

It's been moved to Wednesday.


by kristoph on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Well, there's an Oprah/Michelle Obama/Caroline Kennedy rally in LA tomorrow, which may generate some free media.


by Adam B on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:48:56 PM EST

It's on (2.00 / 1)

Super Bowl Sunday, not tomorrow.

I'm sure it will generate some free media.


by Coldblue on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:53:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I hope she stops in DE too.  I also hope she does quite a job in CT because one of the polls shows she may be losing ground there.  Monday night she is supposed to be in NYC for that webcast.  

Hitting CA colleges is important because normally Obama succeeds on campuses.  This may help bring out her youth vote.  


by findthesource on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:49:34 PM EST

I am shocked the candidates (none / 0)

are leaving California.

I understand Obama going to small states - I can already here the spin: "candidate so-and-so won 14 of the states up for grabs".

Nevertheless, I think California is vital for Obama. In the math I have been doing, I just don't see how he overcomes Clinton's shrinking but still significant leads in the Northeast.  

I am equally surprised that Clinton is leaving.  It may reflect the judgement of both campaigns that Clinton will win California based on early voting that occured before SC.


by fladem on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:50:39 PM EST

Re: I am shocked the candidates (none / 0)

That's my sense.  Obama has closed well in California and may split the vote on election today, but there's way he can overcome the large early voting lead that Hillary has.


by markjay on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:20:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

See ya in East LA tomorrow morning!

Hillary to Obama: "Where ya goin' young man?  Ya goin' over there, I'm right behind you....  I gotcha!"


by Zeitgeist9000 on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:51:06 PM EST

Califorinia or Illinois???? (none / 0)

It appears that Obama is waiting to decide where to spend the evening of Feb 5, whereas as Clinton is playing it safe.


by shlenny on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:52:53 PM EST

Re: Califorinia or Illinois???? (none / 0)

The Washington Post has IL (I just found out), but that's tentative.


by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:55:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Califorinia or Illinois???? (none / 0)

If its in southern IL, near St. Louis, that would be a good sign for Obama.


by shlenny on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:33:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The candidates (none / 0)

have to go with their advisors at this stage.

We'll see.


by Coldblue on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 10:57:10 PM EST

Dumb question (none / 0)

When has Reid scheduled the vote on the stimulus package?


by ChrisR on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:03:33 PM EST

Barack Rocked Albuquerque (none / 0)

today.  Clinton will look to do the same tomorrow. 8pm, Highland High School Gym, for those of you who were wondering.


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
by fbihop on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:16:26 PM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Jerome - will you be posting your predictions on the outcome of February 5th?


by turnpikekid on Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 11:35:20 PM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Of course. I still need to review who nailed FL. Right now, I'd go with roughly a 1000 to 700, or so, delegate split in Clinton's favor. I view the 1000 mark as the threshold for her to be declared the victor, and I think she could be just under or over. In terms of states, Clinton winning 15-19 and Obama 3-7. I should have time Sun to blog it hopefully.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 12:07:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I hope you're spot on!


by DrGary on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 12:57:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I think we are going to get our money's worth this time:


On the Democratic side, the battle is closer, but the advantage has shifted back to Barack Obama -- thanks to a growing but largely unremarked-upon tendency among Democratic leaders to reject Hillary Clinton and her husband, the former president.

The New York senator could still emerge from the "Tsunami Tuesday" voting with the overall lead in delegates, but she is unlikely to come close to clinching the nomination. And the longer the race goes on, the better the chances Obama will prevail as more Democratic elected officials and candidates come to view him as the better bet to defeat McCain in November.

David Broder - A Matchup Starts to Take Shape Washington Post 31 Jan 08


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:23:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

If Clinton comes out with even a 200 delegate lead, which is about the minimum I'd see likely, he comes up with that as bettering the chances of Obama?

Broder is so full of hogwash; he has no clue in anymore.

Some people, when they are obviously biased and cannot post the truth and would rather spin hopefullness, should stay out of the prediction business-- which some of my friends have taken as good advice.


by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 10:28:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Its not just Broder saying this. It seems to be echoing through out the mainstream pundits and media.

It may be hogwash but it is the growing conventional wisdom.


by aiko on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 02:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

David Broder! (none / 0)

David Broder, the doddering, senile voice of the Village idiots in Georgetown. That's your source?


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 10:28:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: David Broder! (none / 0)

Apparently so.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And? (none / 0)

And. . .what? You're proud of that? You dispute my characterization of him?

David Broder is an inveterate Clinton hater (if you don't know it, he is the author of the infamous phrase about the Clintons "trashing the place (DC)." What he says about the Clintons isn't worth garbage. Broder is also an out of touch old fool who lost his last brain cell some time during the first Reagan Adminisration.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 04:40:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And? (none / 0)

I posted a timely quote with an accurate citation, you asked me if I was indeed quoting the source I cited and I affirmed, redundantly, that I was.  You're entitled to your opinion like anyone else but so far no evidence you are interested in discussing the content of the quote, whatever the source.  Suit yourself.  

Jerome's response was also critical but at least he made a meaningful reply.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:08:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rhetorical question (none / 0)

I didn't "ask" you anything. That was a rhetorical question. It's an argumentative device that you might like to acquaint yourself with.

As for the content of the quote, considering its source, it's worth nothing. Again, unless you care to dispute my characterization of Broder, you are adding nothing to the conversation. The opionion of an openly biased and decrepit old fool simply carries no weight. Dispute that he is biased, or dispute that he is decrepit. But please come back with another meaningless semantic argument.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:17:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rhetorical question (none / 0)

should have been "please don't come back"


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rhetorical question (none / 0)

I think we are wasting bandwidth on this.  If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it.

The point he was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio.  I agree with those premises.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 05:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not getting it (none / 0)

"If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it."

Actually, that's not necessary, because most people around here (and in left-liberal circles in general) know enough not to use a senile, hack, Clinton-hater like Broder to buttress one's views. Thanks for reminding me of my options, though.

"The point he [Broder] was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio. I agree with those premises."

Actually, the material you quoted also included a gratuitous dig at President Clinton. But yes, I understand that you "agree" with the premises espoused by the estimable Mr. Broder. I assume you would not have bothered to quote him if you did not.

The point that you just don't seem to be able to grasp is that Broder (because of his bias and dotage) is simply not a credible authority on matters pertaining to the Clintons. That being the case, your opinion is functionallly equivalent to just that, simply your opinion. While you are certainly entitled to it, Broder's concurrence with it adds no authority whatsoever. Again, unless you can specifically address this issue, it seems to me you have nothing further to say.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 06:55:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not getting it (none / 0)

You're still shooting the messenger and ignoring the message.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 07:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Still not getting it (none / 0)

When the messanger is untrustworthy, the message can't be trusted either.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 07:56:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Still not getting it (none / 0)

Quo errat demonstrator.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:14:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes. . . (none / 0)

. . .QED. Now, do you actually have any point to make, or is it simply the case with you that you must have the last word everywhere and always?


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 08:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not getting it (none / 0)

"If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it."

Actually, that's not necessary, because most people around here (and in left-liberal circles in general) know enough not to use a senile, hack, Clinton-hater like Broder to buttress one's views. Thanks for reminding me of my options, though.

"The point he [Broder] was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio. I agree with those premises."

Actually, the material you quoted also included a gratuitous dig at President Clinton. But yes, I understand that you "agree" with the premises espoused by the estimable Mr. Broder. I assume you would not have bothered to quote him if you did not.

The point that you just don't seem to be able to grasp is that Broder (because of his bias and dotage) is simply not a credible authority on matters pertaining to the Clintons. That being the case, your opinion is functionallly equivalent to just that, simply your opinion. While you are certainly entitled to it, Broder's concurrence with it adds no authority whatsoever. Again, unless you can specifically address this issue, it seems to me you have nothing further to say.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 06:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

not getting it (none / 0)

"If you feel so strongly about media bias in general or Broder in particular post a diary about it."

Actually, that's not necessary, because most people around here (and in left-liberal circles in general) know enough not to use a senile, hack, Clinton-hater like Broder to buttress one's views. Thanks for reminding me of my options, though.

"The point he [Broder] was making was that Obama is likely to survive the 5th and the contest gets easier for him from that point on, until Texas and Ohio. I agree with those premises."

Actually, the material you quoted also included a gratuitous dig at President Clinton. But yes, I understand that you "agree" with the premises espoused by the estimable Mr. Broder. I assume you would not have bothered to quote him if you did not.

The point that you just don't seem to be able to grasp is that Broder (because of his bias and dotage) is simply not a credible authority on matters pertaining to the Clintons. That being the case, your opinion is functionallly equivalent to just that, simply your opinion. While you are certainly entitled to it, Broder's concurrence with it adds no authority whatsoever. Again, unless you can specifically address this issue, it seems to me you have nothing further to say.


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 06:56:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not getting it (none / 0)

sorry triple post


by freemansfarm on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 06:56:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I happen to agree. 1000 delegates or above is what she needs to acheive on Super Tuesday. Anything lower can be claimed as  victory by Obama and MSNBC. Having said that, I think the race is a lot closer than we think, so I won't be surprised if it is a 50/50 split.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 10:00:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

I should add, if that indeed is the outcome, Obama will have to win 60% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. There could be increasing pressure for him to drop out, or for him to drop out and for Clinton to choose him as the VP. The same can be said of Clinton. There could be pressure on her to drop out if she comes up short of Obama. If Obama wins Tuesday night, he is riding a huge wave to the nomination. Beating a Clinton is a big deal.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 10:07:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

In sailing, if you're ahead, you just do whatever the guy behind you does; that way there's no chance that you'll misjudge the wind when he doesn't.


by brackdurf on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 12:15:14 AM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)


by DrGary on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 12:59:29 AM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Just watched Hil on Tavis Smiley in the great city of LA! She was great; show was live. She said she wants both teams from NY to win the Super bowls; the one on Sunday and the other one on Tuesday (loose interpretation).


by India on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 01:16:19 AM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Is there a rerun , missed it.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 02:46:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

Funny, I'm rooting for the insurgent vs the inevitable in both cases, which has me picking the Giants too.


by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 03:24:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

She'll definitely be in NY on the evening of the 4th--she's hosting the national town hall from there.


by OrangeFur on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 03:19:53 AM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

The fact that HRC has been forced to spend so much time this late in CA and has cut an ad for Arkansas tells me they see significant erosion in what were solid state her until fairly recently.

La Opinion has endorsed Obama.  That, along with the Kennedy endorsement, and the LA rally with Caroline Kennedy, Oprah, and Michelle Obama will move hispanic and women voters toward Obama.

Clinton is still the front-runner, but Obama has moved quite a lot and will do well enough to survive Super Tuesday in good shape.  And then the next set of contests will be good ones for him.


by mainelib on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 09:02:04 AM EST

Re: The run-up to Feb 5th (none / 0)

And CA independents can vote in the Democratic primary, not the Republican ones.


by mainelib on Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 09:03:26 AM EST


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