MyDD :: How Many Open Senate Seats Will There Be in 2010?

How Many Open Senate Seats Will There Be in 2010?

by Todd Beeton, Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 07:52:40 PM EST

As we already know, 2010 is shaping up to be yet another...err... problematic cycle for the Republicans on the Senate front. Not only will they once again be defending more seats than Democrats (19R vs. 15D) but the whole playing field is working against them. Chris Cilizza sums it up with a top 10 most vulnerable seats list, which features 7 Republicans and 3 Democrats (and even those Dems -- Boxer, Reid and Dorgan -- are longshot perfect storm pickups.)

As Cilizza puts it:

Republicans must defend 19 seats including six (North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio) in states won by President-elect Barack Obama earlier this month.

Democrats have far less vulnerability; only one incumbent up for re-election (Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar) won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2004 and several potential races are entirely contingent on one Republican candidate deciding to run.

But this doesn't even take into account potential open seats that may make currently unwinnable races quite winnable. Bob Geiger looks at the potential pick-ups in Texas if Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for Governor (although apparently she won't necessarily resign to run, only if she wins), in Kansas if, as expected, Sam Brownback retires to run for Governor and in Ohio and Iowa where septugenarians George Voinovich and Chuck Grassley may very well retire rather than wage tough re-election fights. Currently Charlie Cook lists the Ohio and Iowa races as lean Republican (hey, never too early for a Senate outlook map!) but they would change to toss-up overnight if these guys were to choose not to run again (can you say Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado?)

Geiger who makes a good point about the upside of open seats versus running against Republican incumbents in '10:

While Democrats were able to grab Senate seats from Republican incumbents this year -- goodbye, John Sununu and Elizabeth Dole -- there may be some cyclical backlash against an all-Democratic Washington in 2010 and campaigning for a bunch of open seats will make the road to a bigger majority much easier to travel.

Tags: 2010 senate, open seats (all tags)

Permalink :: 13 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: How Many Open Senate Seats Will There Be in 20 (none / 0)

People always think Boxer as vulnerable and yet there she still is. Still this is looming as a tougher challenge with Schwarzenegger likely jumping into the fray. I wouldn't count her out by any stretch.

by Charles Lemos on Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 08:39:06 PM EST

Salazar's Likely To Win (none / 0)

I'd be amazed if Ken Salazar is vulnerable in 2010.

I have no particular love for anybody who goes around proclaiming his love for Joe Lieberman, but he's successfully built a moderate image in a state where Independents always decide elections.

Republicans have no obvious candidates to run against him either:

Gov. Bill Ritter is a Democrat. Republicans have only 2 Congressmen out of 7 and one, Mike Coffman is a freshman, just elected to Tom Tancredo's old seat.

Democrats also control both houses of the legislature. In short, the bench for Republicans is pretty barren.

They've tried running right-wing billionaire businessmen like Pete Coors in the past, but that's been notoriously unsuccessful and is unlikely to work better in 2010.

Most incumbents who aren't involved in scandals (Sen. Stevens), wildly unpopular (NH Sen. Sununnu) or in a state which is heavily blue or red and they're the wrong party (MD Sen. Lincoln Chaffee), win re-election.

Maybe someone will come out of nowhere to challenge Salazar, but it's certainly a long-shot right now.

by Cugel on Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 08:42:38 PM EST

Re: How Many Open Senate Seats? (none / 0)

Kansas may have an open seat? Now there's something to salivate about!! (sorry, been a long week and in the mood for a bit of irony)

by nytrialman on Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 08:53:33 PM EST

Re: How Many Open Senate Seats? (none / 0)

Not may have, will have. Brownback has already stated that he is not running for re-election.
With Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt both eyeing the seat, there's an opening. Moran's already in the race and Tiahrt seems likely to join him. This could lead to a "scorched earth" Republican primary, which would likely be Tiahrt's only chance of beating Moran.
The two most likely candidates for the Democrats would be either Gov. Sebelius or Rep. Dennis Moore (KS-3), who's not running for re-election, either of whom could win if the primary sufficiently wounds the Republican nominee.
(On a side note, if the Governor decides to seek the Senate seat, I'm hoping Rep. Moore runs for Governor.)

The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach

by Shocker Jim on Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 08:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Many Open Senate Seats Will There Be (none / 0)

Looking at that list, I suspect that as an opening bid Democrats gaining about 2 or 3 seats would be about right.

by killjoy on Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 08:54:28 PM EST

we've been discussing this at Bleeding Heartland (none / 0)

No one expects Vilsack or any other heavyweight to challenge Grassley. It seems like people will just hang back and see if he retires for some other reason. I would like to see a strong challenge, because I think that would increase the odds of Grassley retiring.

Marc Ambinder seems to expect Grassley to go, but I haven't found any Iowan who thinks that is very likely. Most people expect him to run for a sixth term unless some health problem comes up, and he seems healthy to me.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 11:29:19 PM EST

36 seats, not 34 (none / 0)

Your numbers are off...

2010 is going to be 19R vs. 17D.

You forgot about the two special elections - Delaware (Biden's seat) and New York (Clinton's seat).

There will be 36 Senate races in 2010, not 34.

by Obamaphile on Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 06:10:16 AM EST

Re: 36 seats, not 34 (none / 0)

That said, those 2 seats shouldn't be particular vulnerable for Democrats, given how blue those states are.

by Obamaphile on Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 06:11:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How Many Open Senate (none / 0)

Scatch Florida if Jebbie runs. They like him down there.

by RichardFlatts on Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 11:35:43 AM EST

Re: How Many Open Senate Seats Will There Be in 20 (none / 0)

I really hope that Obama doesn't tap Sebelius for anything, because she's our best chance for a Senate pickup in 2010. She's term-limited out of the governorship in 2010, and her and Brownback running to "switch jobs" would convince people to vote for her that otherwise wouldn't consider a Dem.

by Leoniceno on Sat Dec 06, 2008 at 01:46:06 PM EST

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