PA-Sen: Specter Leads Matthews By Just 3 Points

With Chris Matthews reportedly moving closer towards a run for the United States Senate in Pennsylvania, the head-to-head polling matching him up against incumbent Republican Arlen Specter has been a bit over the map. But the one unifying feature of all the polls is that Specter isn't cracking 50 percent against Matthews. Here's the latest Rasmussen Reports poll:

Republican Senator Arlen Specter is potentially vulnerable in his 2010 bid for re-election. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Specter leading MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews by just three percentage points, 46% to 43%, in a match-up that may foreshadow one of the nation's most closely-watched Senate races.

[...]

While Specter attracts support from 32% of Democrats, only 70% of Republicans say they would vote for him.

[...]

Specter is viewed favorably by 60% of voters statewide while Matthews earns positive reviews from 49%. Just 68% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of their senator, but the GOP incumbent also gets positive reviews from 48% of Democrats.

Matthews elicits a more polarized response: 65% of Democrats like him, but only 27% of Republicans share that view.

Recent polls have showed Matthews' level of support to be lower, 33 percent according to Quinnipiac University and 27 percent according to Public Policy Polling (D) (.pdf). However, the unifying feature across the three polls is Specter's weakness, polling at just 45 percent in the Q poll and 40 percent in the PPP poll.

It's not clear to me that Matthews is the best candidate to exploit Specter's weakness (nor is it clear that he's not a sufficiently strong candidate, either). But if the Democrats can figure out a way to get Democratic voters to vote the party line in the Senate race next fall -- and shining light on Specter's high profile support of conservative jurists John Roberts and especially Samuel Alito should help -- Specter's weakness among Republicans could finally spell his doom in 2010.



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Re: PA-Sen: Specter Leads Matthews (none / 0)

They say that Rick Santorum made all the difference against Toomey in 2004. He won't be around, at least as senator, this time around. Specter has also been continously fighting leukemia (God bless him) on and off for a while now. I'm not 100% sure he will actually run when it's time to file.


by RandyMI on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 01:47:48 PM EST

Someone explain to me Matthews crendentials again? (2.00 / 2)

There are BETTER and more credible potential Democratic candidates to take on Specter. Matthews is nothing but a celebrity candidate who has no demonstrable heavy lifting work for Dems in PA.
Same thing we got with Al Franken. Ciresi would have easily won the MN seat.

I hope we don't make the same mistake twice.


by richochet on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 01:53:44 PM EST

Oh come on (none / 0)

We don't know what would have happened with Ciresi.  While he was a better candidate, he didn't have the fundraising power that Franken had--for either side.  Coleman was a money sink for the Republicans and his fundraising took away from quite a few other races, I'm sure.

Franken's legacy might be that he incited the Republicans so much that they blew too much money beating him... and they might not have even beaten him.  Certainly there'll be a cloud over Coleman's office even if he does come up with a win.

Let's keep speculation in the "might have" instead of the "would have" catagory, shall we?


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Someone explain to me Matthews crendentials (2.00 / 1)

How about Joe Sestak or Patrick Murphy just for starters?

Matthews has said so many stupid and offensive things on air over the years that will come back to haunt him. Today he made a quip about people who didn't take the SATS.


by Quinton on Fri Dec 05, 2008 at 02:36:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i think this is a contract ploy (none / 0)

matthews, imo, is not going to leave millions of dollars on the table to become the 100th most powerful senator.


by highgrade on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:24:54 PM EST

Re: PA-Sen: Specter Leads Matthews (none / 0)

With a credible candidate in the race, we're going to win this by 10 points.  Specter isn't even close to 50 in three polls now.  Shades of those early Santorum polls from 2005.


by Skaje on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:33:46 PM EST

Re: PA-Sen: Specter Leads Matthews (2.00 / 3)

Surely we can find a better candidate than Matthews.  Gawd, I'd almost want to contribute to Specter if that were the matchup.

Al Franken may be a celebrity candidate but he's also a genuine progressive.  Whereas Chris Matthews is the poster child for the sort of media punditry that makes our public discourse worse.  And he trashes Democrats more than Joe Lieberman does.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:36:17 PM EST

there must be a better Democrat (none / 0)

At Swing State Project they suggest this is bluster designed to help Matthews in his contract negotiations with MSNBC (current contract expires next year).

I normally don't get involved in other states' primaries, but I would contribute to a good Democrat running against Matthews in this one.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reports of a bad year for Dems (none / 0)

Reports of a bad year for Dems in 2010 are premature at best. Unless there is a national trend, and we would not see that until much closer to Election Day, I think it will be muddled. I see us losing about 20 seats in the House, gaining a few in the Senate and more or less swapping governorships. We've had five dramatic elections in a row, I am sure folks are getting tired.


by RandyMI on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:39:09 PM EST

Matthews (2.00 / 1)

As a Pennsylvanian, I hope can find another candidate.

Specter isn't wholly unlikeable and I'd have a hard time voting for Matthews.


by PSUdan on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 02:45:19 PM EST

Specter ain't so bad (none / 0)

He's someone definitely I can see Obama being able to work with... being marginally unpopular with Republicans is a point in his favor, methinks.

Of course I'd rather have a Democrat there, but Matthews?  Really?  That guy isn't loyal to Democratic principles so much as the sound of his own voice.

Then again, if it gets him off the air...


You can't stop the signal.

President "That One"

by Dracomicron on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 03:02:00 PM EST

Run Matthews Run. For the love of God. (2.00 / 2)

There is a group of women already being formed to take down Matthews, "Women aganist Matthews". All the s** he's said about Hillary over years-his A* is grass.  Make our day Matthews. If this is the best candidate the DEMS can come up with-kiss that seat good-bye.


by sonyawright on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 03:32:22 PM EST

You ARE joking! (2.00 / 2)

What a totally unpalatable candidate.  This man is a misogynist.  He is deaf to the progressive agenda.  He lusts after dirtbags like Lieberman, and even proposed to vote for the despicable bush because he would like to have a beer with him.  As Charlie Brown would put it, "Aaaaargh!"


by candideinnc on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 04:45:53 PM EST

Re: PA-Sen: Specter Leads Matthews (2.00 / 2)

I hate to tell you this, and I'm a blue blue Democrat... I would NEVER NEVER vote for Matthews. He's a Republican political hack, a kiss a**, a collaborator on the war, and an opportunist against Democrats. Having him there is nothing worse than having the worse of the worst Republican in that office. If I were in Pennsylvania, and I were Democrat, I would not vote for Spector, but I WOULD NOT VOTE FOR MATTHEWS EITHER, especially since he's pushed a real vindictive hatred aginst Democrats for year, and he's got this severe hatred, obscessive sociopathic hatred of the Clintons and against other Democrats from Pelosi on. He's nothing but someone who gains income from betraying his country and our future nightly.


by johnrarch on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 05:14:36 PM EST

I'm with you (2.00 / 2)

By that time, I may have moved back to PA.  I would work against that misogynistic phony pig.  His sanctimony is sickening.  His "anti war" stance is not believable as he was drooling over W after Bush invaded Iraq.  

While the jerk consistently called Hillary a hawk, he said the W (in his phony fly boy outfit under the phony Mission Accomplished banner) has "a sunny nobilty."   If that's not hero worshipping the dolt the led us to war I don't know what is.  

Matthews said the ONLY people on the left that hate Bush are "whackos on the left".  Well I say it's the "whackos in the media, and specifically on MSNBC" that hate the Clintons and have been spinning lies and trash talking dems for years..including Gore and Kerry."

Matthews is a lying tool who is buddies with scum like Delay and Coutler.  Anyone who votes for a tool like Matthews is no democrat.


by Jjc2008 on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 06:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA-Sen: Specter Leads Matthews (2.00 / 1)

I'd love to help defeat Matthews.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Dec 04, 2008 at 09:04:57 PM EST


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