I have written a few times, both before the election and since, about the relegation of the Republican Party to regional status -- either just in the South, or in the South plus the Farm Belt. Ron Brownstein tackles the subject, as well, in the latest issue of National Journal in a very interesting read:
That gamble [by Congressional Republicans to oppose the bailout of the auto industry] shows how the party's loss of regional and ideological equilibrium can reinforce itself. Because Republicans from swing and Democratic-leaning states now constitute such a distinct minority in the party caucus, they lack the numbers to prevent it from adopting positions unpopular with their voters. The caucus majority can impose a direction that solidifies the party where it is already strong but further endangers the minority.This isn't the first time a party has fallen into this debilitating cycle. The classic example came after 1854 when Congress approved the Kansas-Nebraska Act, effectively repealing the Missouri Compromise that had limited slavery's spread in the territories. Until then, congressional Democrats were divided closely between Northern and Southern members. But the backlash against the Kansas-Nebraska Act destabilized that balance by provoking severe losses for Northern Democrats; as Southerners gained the advantage in the Democratic caucus, they repeatedly identified the party with pro-slavery policies that further undercut Northern Democrats already struggling against the emerging Republican Party. As the late David M. Potter recounted in his magisterial history of the 1850s, The Impending Crisis, the House's Northern Democrats didn't entirely recover until the New Deal.
Brownstein writes that this trend was also seen from the late-1960s through the early-1990s within the Democratic Party as the increasingly large contingent of Northerners, and thus the the increasingly liberal nature of Congressional Democrats, made it more difficult for the Democrats to attract the votes of Southern conservative voters, who had previously supported the Democratic Party. Thus the problem with a regional minority coming to dominate a party's caucus is that the party can become less responsive to the desires and needs of the rest of the country, and as a result less enticing to voters across the country. With regards to the Republicans' current conundrum, the extreme focus on Southern conservatism makes is significantly more difficult to win over moderate voters around the country -- a trend already visible in Barack Obama's 60 percent to 39 percent victory among moderate voters, a trend that will very possibly continue into the future as the GOP turns even more Southward in its focus.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 4 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.
