MyDD :: GA-Sen: NBC News Calls It For Chambliss

by need some wood on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:14:11 PM EST

56-44 is my prediction. Chambliss.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow, that would be a blowout. I've not followed it closely enough to offer a prediction, but I would put the over-under at about 5 percent for bragging rights.

by auronrenouille on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:07:54 PM EST
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Guess it was a blow-out :(.

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

I think we will be lucky if it is this close... Obama's conspicuous absence in campaigning probably will be takes as well as his conspicuous absence of campaigning in the Appalachian states during the primary.

by LordMike on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:04:21 PM EST
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"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

I'm leaning towards your end. From a psychological standpoint, this is a no-brainer. From a campaign standpoint, it's not even close. This will be the ultimate test of our ground game, because we literally have nothing else in our favor.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:06:39 PM EST
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by gavoter on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:16:01 PM EST

I was voter 112 at 8:25 in my South DeKalb precinct. There was no line although all the machines were in use when I signed in.

I am guessing that Saxby will take it by about 6-8 also.

Martin Wins Bacon County... (none / 0)

...In Georgia, the first county to report all its results has given Democrat Jim Martin an eight vote victory over Republican Saxby Chambliss.

Bacon County is located in the southeastern portion of the state.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:25:14 PM EST

Re: Martin Wins Bacon County... (none / 0)

From 3500 to 28. A drop off in turnout in a run off is expected, but something's not right with only 28 votes.

by alamedadem on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:29:09 PM EST
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Re: Martin Wins Bacon County... (none / 0)

Bacon County has been re-calculated. Chambliss leads 931 votes to 268.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:58:03 PM EST
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Chambliss Currently Has A 2-to-1 Lead... (none / 0)

...Over Martin with 2% of precincts reporting.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:36:03 PM EST

Re: Chambliss Currently Has A 2-to-1 Lead... (none / 0)

66.0% -- 34.0% with 10% in now.

From what I recall on election night, McCain/Chambliss led by a rout with the first third or so that were counted, and then it steadily got closer as the night went on.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 07:59:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Comparison (none / 0)

This will let us know quick enough:

GE by counties:
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/electio n_results/2008_1104/003.htm

Runoff by counties:
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/electio n_results/2008_1202/003.htm

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:02:34 PM EST

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:05:59 PM EST
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Am just waiting for TP reporting in a few or any counties...

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:12:26 PM EST
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PIKE 10 10 2,922 731 3,653

PIKE 10 10 5,816 1,906 8,039

Based on Pike county, Chambliss will turn a 3:1 margin into a 4:1 margin.

It's an easy win by Chambliss.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

Lessons to be learned...

1. Revotes almost always benefit the loser.

You can't go blue in GA without heavy AA vote.
You can't get heavy AA vote by running the whitest man in the country.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:16:46 PM EST
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"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

By loser, of course, I mean the GOP. Had McCain won, we might have actually made this close.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:17:39 PM EST
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I agree (none / 0)

I actually think that Obama winning is probably going to be in the long run bad for Democrats. If we lose the House in 2010, I am never going to want to hold the White House again.

by Kent on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 10:53:04 PM EST
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Re: I agree (none / 0)

You think the GOP can win 40 seats next time?

It will happen if nothing gets done, or Obama stumbles like Clinton did in 1993.

by esconded on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 11:41:52 PM EST
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Re: I agree (none / 0)

No fucking way. Obama has inherited what everyone in the world understands to be a gigantic disaster. In order for him to lose approval rating in two years time, he will have to make big, huge mistakes.

Seriously, we could not possibly have a better slate to work from. Obama succeeding is just turning the boat around. If he fails, then none of this matters anyway.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 11:47:57 PM EST
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Re: I agree (none / 0)

That'sthe price you pay for governing. If all you're interested in is having a smile on your face on election night while looking over the non-Presidential results, then you havea point. Is that all you're interested in?

by spirowasright on Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 12:05:17 AM EST
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After last night's rally... (none / 0)

...With T.I., Young Jeezy and Ludacris, Jim Martin is no longer the so-called "whitest man in the country." Rather, Mr. Martin should be known as White Chocolate.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:22:08 PM EST
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Re: After last night's rally... (none / 0)

Point taken, but perhaps too late?

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:43:21 PM EST
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All things considered... (none / 0)

...At least Jim Martin didn't join Ludacris in a rousing rendition of "Area Codes" on the steps of the Georgia state Capitol Monday evening.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:47:08 PM EST
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you need some snark (none / 0)

We can also conclude that the endorsement of Obama, the greatest Democratic candidate of the decade, means little in the face of Palin power showing up.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

In Georgia, Palin could walk around eating souls and people would still name roads and schools after her.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:39:27 PM EST
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"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

But I give it two years at most. We've seen her game, and and it ain't great. Once her actual job gets harder and she's still playing to the lower 48, her approval rating in Alaska will dwindle away. The country will soon follow. She doesn't seem the type to know when to leave the party.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:48:10 PM EST
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"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

Case in point: While other Republican governors were offering cautious praise for Obama, she just kept talking trash. While that might prove to be the position that most Republican politicians shift to in a year or less, it shows she can't tell which way the wind is blowing.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:50:30 PM EST
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by Obamaphile on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:18:18 PM EST
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Be serious.

The only shot Martin ever had was on November 4th, and the only reason he didn't lose that night is because the Libertarian candidate snagged enough voted to prevent ol' Sagamore Hickanooney from taking a clean 51%.

Obama's decision not to campaign and Sarah Palin's decision to campaign had no bearing on the ultimate outcome of this race. Martin was toast the day after the November 4th. All the first election did for him was to postpone his inevitable loss.

It sucks, but honestly, is anyone really surprised by how this went? Did people really believe that we were gonna win this race?

To quote Mithrandir... (none / 0)

...There never was much hope. Just a fool's hope

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:23:32 PM EST
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Re: To quote Mithrandir... (none / 0)

You're a better man than I for trying. If Obama actually makes things improve after they go to shit next year, we might stand a chance again. We just have to run somebody plainspoken, humorous and inherently likable. Like Palin, but educated.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 10:04:48 PM EST
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Re: To quote Mithrandir... (none / 0)

Yes, but around here, fool's hope gets mixed in with everything else.

by spirowasright on Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 12:07:46 AM EST
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Re: To quote Mithrandir... (none / 0)

And in Dahlonega, you can get fool's gold mixed in with everything else, too.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 03:11:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

Said it over and over. To win, Martin had to challenge Saxby's GOP cred, split the vote and get the Libertarians to pull more votes away. Wouldn't have been hard, Chambliss has made some moves that are to the left of how Georgia likes to roll.

But running commercials pointing out that Saxby was in favor of the FairTax (in language that only FairTax proponents would recognize) ensured that he was viewed as precisely the right type of Republican for a self-respecting Libertarian. Yes, Jim Martin (or the DSCC) actually did this. It was possibly one of the stupidest decisions by any candidate in this entire election cycle.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:37:35 PM EST
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looking ahead to 2010 (none / 0)

So is Palin going to be able to swing a lot of races by herself?

by esconded on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:21:46 PM EST
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Re: looking ahead to 2010 (none / 0)

Doubtful. She has two years left in office, too, in the middle of a giant recession that might not be as great for oil producers as it once was. If that money starts to go, she'll be in just as much trouble as every oil dictator in the world.

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:41:04 PM EST
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what a gamechanger she is!! (none / 0)

by JJE on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 10:07:11 PM EST
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by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:20:54 PM EST
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WILKES 9 9 1,916 1,430 3,346
WILKES 9 9 2,282 2,252 4,626

A virtual tie, with Chambliss at 49.9 percent in the GE, becomes a 57-43 percent routing of Martin in the run-off.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:28:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

TIFT 14 14 5,815 2,442 8,257
TIFT 14 14 8,398 4,973 13,675

61-39 becomes 71-29, Chambliss ups his percentage by 10 percent.

Goodbye 60 for '08 (none / 0)

47% in, Chambliss up 62-38, it will get closer but end up being a 10-14% loss by Martin, based on the reporting counties.

We will have to go for 60 in 2010.

by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:36:45 PM EST

Re: Goodbye 60 for '08 (none / 0)

There was never a Hello 60 to begin with. It was just Democrats mantra to justify the Lieberman cavein. If prominent Dems thought that there would really be a 60, don't you think they would have thrown everything and the kitchen sink into GA? I have been saying this since Nov 5, Martin had no chance in a runoff.

If Franken loses by 50 votes, I wonder if Senate Democrats would save a fraction of the scorn they use against Naderites for their lovable Independent DEmocrat(no, make that Democrat, in Harry Reid's words) from CT who campaigned against Franken and while he was never a real factor, he could very well have influenced 50 voters to show up at the polls in MN .

by Pravin on Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 04:12:39 AM EST
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With 15% of Fulton County precincts reporting... (none / 0)

...Martin leads Chambliss by 432 votes. Compare that to DeKalb County where, with 13% in, Martin leads by 19,922.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:37:12 PM EST

It should be noted that... (none / 0)

...Jim Martin hails from Fulton County and represented the county for years in the state House.

by andrewalker08 on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:39:01 PM EST
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by obama4presidente on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:41:55 PM EST

Everybody with half a brain knew that when Martin didn't take it when he had Obama's coattails there was no way he'd take it by himself.

Thankfully Obama didn't waste any capital on this foregone conclusion..

As far as all the comments about how the country was some leftwing/liberal/progressive place.. I think tonight we have a bit more realism..hopefully..

"Hey, check it out. You just had yourself a glue OD. So you're learning another lesson. Don't do too much glue, or your night sucks."

The country IS fairly liberal. Just not the South.

by vcalzone on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 08:51:51 PM EST
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by Obamaphile on Tue Dec 02, 2008 at 09:22:54 PM EST
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On social issues, yes, we're liberal compared to the Sean Hannity/James Dobson view of America.

On fiscal policy not so much. At least not really liberal when compared with the rest of the first world. We want a more leftward tax policy than what we've had, but we would never go for the tax structure of most European nations.