GA-Sen: Turnout Reportedly Light

Polls in Georgia close at 7PM Eastern and so far, as expected, turn out appears to be rather light.

Polling stations across Georgia reported low to moderate voter turnout. At the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

While conventional wisdom is that lower turnout favors Chambliss, there's just no way to really gauge whose supporters are coming out to vote today. As Matt Towery, CEO of Insider/Advantage, whose final poll showed Chambliss up 4, put it:

"The race will turn on whether the tradition of Republicans returning to the polls in greater numbers than Democrats in runoff elections will prevail, or whether the almost 1 million automated phone calls by Barack Obama to African-American and longtime Democratic voters will somehow motivate Democrats to return to the polls."

Martin's organizational advantage extends beyond robo-calls from the President-elect. The campaign's GOTV effort has way outstripped anything Chambliss has going for him.

Matt Canter, a spokesman for Mr. Martin, said the campaign had 3,200 people knocking on doors and 3,000 others making phone calls to likely Democratic voters.

Michelle Grasso, a spokeswoman for Mr. Chambliss, said the Republicans were relying largely on e-mail and telephone messages to remind voters of the election. The Chambliss campaign has sent two messages a day to supporters for the past four weeks and will continue to contact voters today, she said.

Sean Quinn has more:

Yesterday we learned that the Martin contact rate during GOTV has been impressively high, with up to 1,000 contacts for 1,500 attempts. According to that source, who knows numbers from working through previous Georgia Democratic voter files, this is just a stunning improvement. What those numbers imply is that the influx of organization will allow for the efficient channeling of volunteer dials and knocks. Where labor fills in, the campaign knows who and where the voters are. Unlike the Obama emphasis on early voting, the Martin campaign did not do a gigantic absentee push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout.

As of last night, according to Martin spokesman Matt Canter, 2,500 volunteers had signed up for the online neighbor-to-neighbor phonebanking tool. Word is that this number has been smashed, beginning early this morning. In addition to and separate from the online phonebanking volunteers (from anywhere), 3,200 on-ground volunteers have deployed around the state for Runoff Day knocking and calling.

So, how many points is organization worth exactly and are Martin's contacts delivering votes more reliably than Chambliss's? We'll begin to get an idea when polls close in 45 minutes.

Update [2008-12-2 18:18:38 by Todd Beeton]:Per Breaking Blue, Senate Guru has a breakdown of the top Georgia counties to watch as results begin to pour in.




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