Retirements can be the bane of party campaign efforts, as incumbents are significantly more likely to win reelection than candidates in open seat elections are to come out on top. Last cycle, depending on the way you count it the Republicans either set the record for House retirements or came close to it, almost undoubtedly increasing the number of seats the party lost come November 4. It is because of this that the news that already a second House Republican is talking about retiring weeks before the 111th Congress is even sworn in has to have GOP strategists concerned.

Less than a week after being reappointed as the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Pete Hoekstra (Mich.) will announce that he will not seek a tenth term in 2010, according to a source with knowledge of the decision.

Hoekstra, who has denied earlier reports that he will retire and consider a run for governor, will make the announcement on Monday, the source told The Hill.

Looking first locally, Pete Hoekstra's retirement means that a seat that otherwise wouldn't be in play is now potentially in play. On election day, according to The Hill, John McCain carried Michigan's second congressional district, which just elected Hoekstra to an eighth term, with just 50.8 percentage points. Throw on top of that the efforts by Congressional Republicans to shut down the Detroit automotive industry, and all the sudden MI-02 could genuinely be in play.

But more broadly, news that Hoekstra will be leaving the House, coming not long after the news that New York Republican Peter King may also be leaving the House, could be a real problem if it represents a beginning of a trend. As mentioned above, retirements make it significantly more difficult for a party to win seats nationwide. But beyond that, retirement announcements are not too dissimilar from the calls of the canary in a coal mine. If Republican incumbents are unwilling to face the voters in a reelection bid, it says a great deal -- to other potential candidates, who may then shy away from making runs of their own; to potential donors, who are less likely to contribute to futile efforts; and to the political press, who can serve to compound the process.

It's true that Hoekstra, as well as King, are not talking about straight retirements, but rather retirements for the purpose of making runs for other office. However, Mel Martinez's retirement from the Senate is one stemming from fear of facing reelection, and I have a hunch that it's not going to be the last one in either chamber. And if it's not, if this turns out to be the beginning of a trend of GOP retirements from both chambers of Congress, Republicans are going to have a tremendously difficult time clawing back into power.