A new Public Policy Polling survey (1,276 LVs, Nov. 29-30, MOE +/- 2.7%) of the Georgia Senate race shows Saxby Chambliss continuing to hold a steady lead over Democrat Jim Martin in tomorrow's run-off (11/24 results in parentheses.)
Chambliss 53 (52)
Martin 46 (46)
If Chambliss does win tomorrow, it looks as though it will be due to a combination of overwhelming support among white voters and a not high enough turnout among African-Americans to put Martin over the top.
Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.
Chambliss's advantage among white voters on Nov. 4th was similar: 70-26. What is way down is the percentage of early voters who are African-American. Sean Quinn reminds us:
Whatever turns out to be the case, at the close of early voting Wednesday, according to the Secretary of State's office 345,564 had voted, and 22.5% of those votes were African-American, an ominous dropoff from the 34.5% of black early voters for the general election.
But with the uncertainty surrounding the turnout, this race should still be considered anyone's game.
Still, according to Georgia Democratic Party spokesman Martin Matheny, thousands of volunteers were hard at work across the state knocking doors in the rain and making phone calls on Jim Martin's behalf. The lines on Election Day will be much shorter than during the general election, given the much shorter ballot, and Democrats here think that most of its voters are going to turn out on Runoff Day itself.
You guys have really stepped up to donate to Jim Martin over at our Road to 60 ActBlue page. Since being added to the page on Nov. 6th, Martin has received 71 donations for a total of $3,342. Great work. Today, however, I encourage any last minute donations to go through the DSCC. Every donation of $5 or more made up until 9pm Eastern tonight will be matched 2 to 1. So give to Martin HERE to help the GOTV effort on the ground. This entire election is about turnout and your dollars can still have a very real impact.
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