MyDD :: House Results Thread

House Results Thread

by Todd Beeton, Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 04:30:43 AM EST

Looks like we're +9 as of now. Mahoney is out, Cazayoux lost as well, but Kanjorski held on and Markey beat Musgrave! We won repeat challengers Massa and Kissell as well. Let's hope we get Burner, Brown and Trauner as well!

What other races are you following?

Update [2008-11-5 0:14:15 by Todd Beeton]:Up to +12.

Update [2008-11-5 0:53:39 by Todd Beeton]:Looks like we lost Trauner. We also lost Lampson. If there is one disappointment tonight, it's the House. We'll be lucky to get 20. Which is still great, but compared to projections, there may have been a "checks and balances" effect.

Update [2008-11-5 1:29:25 by Todd Beeton]:Two key races: Darcy Burner and Charlie Brown:

WA-08 (15% reporting):
Darcy Burner 50
Dave Reichert 50
CA-04 (64% reporting)
Darcy is up 711 votes.
Charlie Brown 50
Tom McClintock 50
McClintock is up 456 votes.

Update [2008-11-5 2:2:47 by Todd Beeton]:We're now at +14.

Update [2008-11-5 3:29:19 by Todd Beeton]:We won Dina Titus in NV-03 & Glenn Nye in VA-02 and Neihaus in OH-01. Dems are up to a net +16. Hopefully we'll get to +20.

Update [2008-11-5 4:30:43 by Todd Beeton]:We won Boccieri in OH-16, which means Dems with a net of +17.

WA-08 & CA-04 are killing me. We won't know results until tomorrow at the earliest.

Tags: congressional election (all tags)

Permalink :: 54 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: House Results Thread (none / 0)

Dina Titus is beating down Porter in Las Vegas.

by killjoy on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 12:07:07 AM EST

that's good to hear, because (none / 0)

overall it is not a great night for Democratic women.

Sam Bennett lost by double digits in D+2 PA-15.

Becky Greenwald is losing by double digits in D+0 IA-04.

Linda Stender lost in R+1 NJ-07 (an open seat).

Vic Wulsin and Anne Barth lost in OH-02 and WV-02, respectively.

I hope Darcy Burner pulls through in WA-08, but it doesn't look good.

Jill Derby also doesn't appear likely to win in NV-02.

Kay Barnes was considered a great candidate but didn't win in MO-06.

Although Kay Hagan and Jeanne Shaheen won Senate seats, and Betsy Markey beat the horrendous Marilyn Musgrave, it was tough out there for most of our women candidates.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 12:39:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that's good to hear (none / 0)

Frankly, of those only Linda Stender had a good chance- but the district was/is still a 51% R district. The rest were dealing with at least 53% R districts iirc.

Democratic women candidates don't seem to get the R crossover that has Democratic men candidates winning 52-53% R districts sometimes. Though tonight, even that latter thing doesn't seem to be working out well.

by killjoy on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:18:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that's good to hear, because (none / 0)

Though I voted for her, Vic Wulsin was/is not a great candidate. There was also a previously unknown independent running who took about 19%. He may have been seen as an alternative to Mean Jean Schmidt and Wulsin.

Their race mostly sounded like a cat fight. Vic Wulsin's ads didn't reflect support for a national Dem. theme, which might have helped her more - riding Obama's coattails- then her negativity re Jean Schmidt.

by susie on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:06:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that's good to hear, because (none / 0)

Need to find Paul Hackett and drag him back there.... He could definitely win that seat!

"This was never part of our arrangement, Specter" "I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!" "This deal keeps getting worse all the time!"

by LordMike on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 02:42:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Paul Hackett (none / 0)

He sure would make it interesting. Though, frankly he's something of a loose cannon and could conceivably make gaffes as well as any. I don't know that the "Irag veteran" tag would hold the same cachet it did several yrs ago.

I also don't believe he's interested in running for office again. He didn't seem to care for the constant need for fund-raising necessary to compete in such a competitive environment.

by susie on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 03:04:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wulsin ended up in a 3 way race (none / 0)

Without the third candidate, she probably would have won.

by Betsy McCall on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 11:19:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re:Without third candidate, she would have won.. (none / 0)

Doubtful.

Wulsin came off as shrill, didn't have enough to attract those on-the-fence and AAs. Her only issue was health care - we needed more to get people excited enough to be FOR her- to overcome the R straight-party voters.

As one who lives in the district, I see the best hope of getting rid of Jean to be in the redistricting which will be in effect in 2012 (though I'd love to see a good Dem candidate emerge in Oh-02 in 2010). Ohio will lose at least one Congressional seat after the next census.
The part of Oh-02 in Hamilton Co. should be merged with OH-01, a more natural fit anyway than the rural areas to the east. Let neighboring districts divide up the rest of OH-02 at that time, and we'll get rid of the embarassment.

by susie on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 01:21:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Looks like the Dem wave isn't so mighty (2.00 / 1)

We may not crack 20+ in terms of a gain. Much more was expected.

And I wonder why. I have some answers. Maybe others will too.

The Sarah Palin effect. Sarah Palin doesn't seem to have helped John McCain but she has helped the Republican party. She energized the base. And she energized the base in just those red states we needed to win in to enlarge our margins. I think Sarah Palin is the reason we didn't get the Georgia and Kentucky Senate seats. I think she ginned up th eexcitement and interest of the base and brought them to the polls. No other potential Republican vice presidential nominee could have does this at all....not a one.

John McCain chose Sarah Palin because there was gap to fill in this election that Barack Obama refused to fill. He didn't choose the obvious female VP candidate, so McCain thought that there was a gap big enough to drive a truck through.

It didn't help John McCain, but it kept down Republicans losses in House and Senate.

We aren't going to make it into the upper 20's or 30 because of Sarah Palin.

by debcoop on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 03:02:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

My theory (none / 0)

The new voters who came out for Obama didn't bother to vote in down-ticket races. For some, it may have been just the singular focus on Obama, for others, esp those who had to stand in line, they wanted to vote for him and then get out.

I noticed some hints yesterday when passing out Dem Party sample ballots at polling locations. A lot of the passionate Obama supporters were focused on him, I had to make a little sales pitch to get them to consider the other Dems on the ballot.

We'll know more later as the stats come in.

by Betsy McCall on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 11:12:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that's good to hear, because (2.00 / 1)

I'd put Kirsten Gillibrand's resounding reelection (62%!) on the list of successes. She won the seat last time from Republican John Sweeney in part because he made the papers for being a drunken fool more often than for legislation. This district could easily have elected a qualified Republican candidate, but Gillibrand has done an excellent job.

by De Re Rustica on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 09:28:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dems tend to run women in more difficult races (none / 0)

Usually against entrenched GOP areas. Wulsin probably would have beaten Mean Jean if a third candidate hadn't run.

by Betsy McCall on Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 11:07:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wulsin would have beaten Mean Jean if... (none / 0)

Mean Jean beat Wulsin by 25000 votes; the third party candidate, who described himself as a conservative, only got about 53000. Thus Wulsin would have had to win over 3/4 of the conservative third party candidates votes to beat Jean Schmidt.

Though many Rs detest Jean Schmidt, it's doubtful they would have cast their vote for "the liberal" (their description) Wulsin. Many of the Rs who are anti-Jean are even more right-wing than she is.